Tonka
Well-known member
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2009/11/03/index.php?section=opinion&article=a03a1cie
Influenza: benign disease?
Javier Flores
One of the most disturbing data in the current phase of increased infections with H1N1 influenza virus in Mexico that has changed the age group. When it was thought that the most vulnerable was the young adults, today is also seen growth of cases in children under 10 years. How to explain?
The first thing that indicates this change is that for the behavior of the new virus can not jump to conclusions. Still not even meet its first annual cycle and it is prudent to carefully observe their behavior. This is crucial in understanding the disease and therefore in the direction to be given to public policies to address it.
The steady increase in the number of cases in the world shows that it is a pandemic whose spread is not stopped. In our country now total more than 52 thousand cases confirmed (according to the report of the Ministry of Health of October 28). The expansion of the pathology here is worrying. In early October, the peak of the curve of the number of cases was one hundred percent higher than the peak observed in April, although the number of deaths, to which I refer later, has struck comparatively between the two periods, according to the same source.
Nationally, the institution most affected is the Federal District, with 11 percent of the backlog. Given the increase in the number of patients, has gone from green to yellow alert, with the strengthening of preventive measures including special actions in schools and public transport system. He was the secretary of health of the nation's capital, Francisco Osuna, who has warned of the increasing number of cases in children under 10 years. One possible explanation for this change, according to the official, is considered a probable mutation in the genome of influenza A/H1N1 virus.
Ahued hypothesis is risky but worthy of consideration, for although not yet have a demonstration of the virus genetic variation linked to an increase in its pathogenicity, the recently observed changes in children makes it mandatory to explore. It is, after all, a hypothesis. Among the multitude of elements that should be considered to understand this are the seasonal change and other environmental changes, but we can not rule out the agent himself.
The possibilities in the variation of the genome of this virus are very high. Of the eight segments that compose it are two that are highly volatile, mainly 6 (NA) and 4 (HA), according to a study by Lu and Liu published online July 20 in the Archives of Virology. Most experts have expressed concern that H1N1 may mutate or recombine with other viruses out there, eg Schnitzler and Schnitzler (Virus Genes, 39:279-292, 2009). Besides, there are genetic modifications in the virus well documented, such as those explaining the cases of resistance to treatment with the antiviral Tamiflu (oseltamivir), the matter may be the work of Collins and colleagues (Vaccine 27 (45): 6317 -- 23, 2009). The time from March to April, which had the first news of a new virus and therefore a new disease, is actually very brief. Be very careful. The fact that so far the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the virus in moderate does not mean benign. There should also be excluded, as we have seen, that are now introducing some modifications in its genome.
We have no vaccine and the main resource with which we understand best is what we face, with responsibility to guide the population. To insist, as does the federal Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova Villalobos, that this is a benign disease, is the wrong signal at the same time incomprehensible, because then why follow the preventive measures, if the influenza A/H1N1 is benign? Meanwhile, the number of cases increases, the seriously ill in hospital increases and there is clear evidence of an enlargement of the affected population to those under 10 years. I do not understand.
A final comment on the number of deaths. In April, the question was: Why more people die from influenza A/H1N1 in Mexico than in other countries? Now, the deaths here are less compared to those that occur in other nations with stronger health systems. This will require an explanation. When asked the president of Argentina, Cristina Fernandez, why there were more deaths in their country as a result of this epidemic on others, answered, "It's here we do well."
Influenza: benign disease?
Javier Flores
One of the most disturbing data in the current phase of increased infections with H1N1 influenza virus in Mexico that has changed the age group. When it was thought that the most vulnerable was the young adults, today is also seen growth of cases in children under 10 years. How to explain?
The first thing that indicates this change is that for the behavior of the new virus can not jump to conclusions. Still not even meet its first annual cycle and it is prudent to carefully observe their behavior. This is crucial in understanding the disease and therefore in the direction to be given to public policies to address it.
The steady increase in the number of cases in the world shows that it is a pandemic whose spread is not stopped. In our country now total more than 52 thousand cases confirmed (according to the report of the Ministry of Health of October 28). The expansion of the pathology here is worrying. In early October, the peak of the curve of the number of cases was one hundred percent higher than the peak observed in April, although the number of deaths, to which I refer later, has struck comparatively between the two periods, according to the same source.
Nationally, the institution most affected is the Federal District, with 11 percent of the backlog. Given the increase in the number of patients, has gone from green to yellow alert, with the strengthening of preventive measures including special actions in schools and public transport system. He was the secretary of health of the nation's capital, Francisco Osuna, who has warned of the increasing number of cases in children under 10 years. One possible explanation for this change, according to the official, is considered a probable mutation in the genome of influenza A/H1N1 virus.
Ahued hypothesis is risky but worthy of consideration, for although not yet have a demonstration of the virus genetic variation linked to an increase in its pathogenicity, the recently observed changes in children makes it mandatory to explore. It is, after all, a hypothesis. Among the multitude of elements that should be considered to understand this are the seasonal change and other environmental changes, but we can not rule out the agent himself.
The possibilities in the variation of the genome of this virus are very high. Of the eight segments that compose it are two that are highly volatile, mainly 6 (NA) and 4 (HA), according to a study by Lu and Liu published online July 20 in the Archives of Virology. Most experts have expressed concern that H1N1 may mutate or recombine with other viruses out there, eg Schnitzler and Schnitzler (Virus Genes, 39:279-292, 2009). Besides, there are genetic modifications in the virus well documented, such as those explaining the cases of resistance to treatment with the antiviral Tamiflu (oseltamivir), the matter may be the work of Collins and colleagues (Vaccine 27 (45): 6317 -- 23, 2009). The time from March to April, which had the first news of a new virus and therefore a new disease, is actually very brief. Be very careful. The fact that so far the pathogenicity and transmissibility of the virus in moderate does not mean benign. There should also be excluded, as we have seen, that are now introducing some modifications in its genome.
We have no vaccine and the main resource with which we understand best is what we face, with responsibility to guide the population. To insist, as does the federal Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova Villalobos, that this is a benign disease, is the wrong signal at the same time incomprehensible, because then why follow the preventive measures, if the influenza A/H1N1 is benign? Meanwhile, the number of cases increases, the seriously ill in hospital increases and there is clear evidence of an enlargement of the affected population to those under 10 years. I do not understand.
A final comment on the number of deaths. In April, the question was: Why more people die from influenza A/H1N1 in Mexico than in other countries? Now, the deaths here are less compared to those that occur in other nations with stronger health systems. This will require an explanation. When asked the president of Argentina, Cristina Fernandez, why there were more deaths in their country as a result of this epidemic on others, answered, "It's here we do well."