tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Genet Evol
. 2022 Jun 22;103:105319.
doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105319. Online ahead of print.
Assess transmissibility of different influenza subtypes: Based on a SEIABR model
Haoyun Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nan Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengxiang Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guoqun Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shanghui Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiuqin Hong[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meifang Quan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenting Zha[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yuan Lv[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Objective: Influenza is a worldwide public health problem which causes a serious economic and health burden. In order to provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and control level of influenza, using dynamic model to evaluate the infection rates of influenza different subtypes from 2010 to 2019 in China.
Methods: This article established SEIABR model based on influenza cases reported by China National Influenza Center from 2010 to 2019. And calculated the transmission rate and R[SUB]e[/SUB] by combined the natural birth rate, natural death rate, infectious rate, proportion of asymptomatic patients, proportion of untreated patients, recovery rate and fatality rate.
Results: The average infection rate of influenza was (2.38 ± 0.59) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], and influenza A was (2.24 ± 0.51) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], influenza B was (2.21 ± 0.68) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP]. And average R[SUB]e[/SUB] were 1.60, 1.51, 1.49. In addition, the infection rates of A /H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria were (2.47 ± 0.51) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], (2.25 ± 0.48) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], (2.15 ± 0.61) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], and (2.30 ± 0.66) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP] and average R[SUB]e[/SUB] were 1.67, 1.52, 1.44, 1.56.
Conclusion: Between each year, flu transmission capacity had fluctuation. Influenza A was more transmissible than influenza B, and during the major subtypes, influenza A/H1N1 was the most transmissible.
Keywords: Influenza; SEIABR model; Transmission capacity.
. 2022 Jun 22;103:105319.
doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105319. Online ahead of print.
Assess transmissibility of different influenza subtypes: Based on a SEIABR model
Haoyun Dai[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Nan Zhou[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mengxiang Chen[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Guoqun Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shanghui Yi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xiuqin Hong[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Meifang Quan[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wenting Zha[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Yuan Lv[SUP] 4 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35752386
- DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2022.105319
Abstract
Objective: Influenza is a worldwide public health problem which causes a serious economic and health burden. In order to provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and control level of influenza, using dynamic model to evaluate the infection rates of influenza different subtypes from 2010 to 2019 in China.
Methods: This article established SEIABR model based on influenza cases reported by China National Influenza Center from 2010 to 2019. And calculated the transmission rate and R[SUB]e[/SUB] by combined the natural birth rate, natural death rate, infectious rate, proportion of asymptomatic patients, proportion of untreated patients, recovery rate and fatality rate.
Results: The average infection rate of influenza was (2.38 ± 0.59) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], and influenza A was (2.24 ± 0.51) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], influenza B was (2.21 ± 0.68) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP]. And average R[SUB]e[/SUB] were 1.60, 1.51, 1.49. In addition, the infection rates of A /H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Yamagata and B/Victoria were (2.47 ± 0.51) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], (2.25 ± 0.48) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], (2.15 ± 0.61) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP], and (2.30 ± 0.66) × 10[SUP]-10[/SUP] and average R[SUB]e[/SUB] were 1.67, 1.52, 1.44, 1.56.
Conclusion: Between each year, flu transmission capacity had fluctuation. Influenza A was more transmissible than influenza B, and during the major subtypes, influenza A/H1N1 was the most transmissible.
Keywords: Influenza; SEIABR model; Transmission capacity.