tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Poverty
. 2021 Apr 19;10(1):53.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-021-00835-2.
Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study
Sheng-Nan Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Rui[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qiu-Ping Chen[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Bin Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shan-Shan Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhuo-Yang Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ze-Yu Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan-Zhao Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-Wen Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Meng Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing-Chun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tian-Long Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Li Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bin Deng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jie-Feng Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chan Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Pei-Hua Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei-Kang Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fang Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yong Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yan-Hua Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ben-Hua Zhao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yi-Chen Chiang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Tian-Mu Chen[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.
Methods: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/? decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (f[SUB]c[/SUB]) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ? 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ? 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).
Results: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/? = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/? = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%).
Conclusions: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
Keywords: Age group; Antiviral treatment; COVID-19; Transmission model.
. 2021 Apr 19;10(1):53.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-021-00835-2.
Effectiveness of potential antiviral treatments in COVID-19 transmission control: a modelling study
Sheng-Nan Lin[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Rui[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qiu-Ping Chen[SUP] #[/SUP][SUP] 2 [/SUP], Bin Zhao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Shan-Shan Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Zhuo-Yang Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ze-Yu Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan-Zhao Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-Wen Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Meng Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing-Chun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tian-Long Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Li Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Bin Deng[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jie-Feng Huang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chan Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Pei-Hua Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Wei-Kang Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fang Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yong Chen[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Yan-Hua Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ben-Hua Zhao[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yi-Chen Chiang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Tian-Mu Chen[SUP] 7 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 33874998
- DOI: 10.1186/s40249-021-00835-2
Abstract
Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.
Methods: We collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/? decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (f[SUB]c[/SUB]) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ? 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ? 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).
Results: Comparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/? = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/? = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%).
Conclusions: Antiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
Keywords: Age group; Antiviral treatment; COVID-19; Transmission model.