tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Poverty
. 2020 Aug 26;9(1):117.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-020-00735-x.
A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2
Ze-Yu Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan-Zhao Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-Wen Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shi-Xiong Hu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qing-Qing Hu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhao Lei[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Rui[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing-Chun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Meng Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Li Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shan-Shan Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ruo-Yun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fang Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying-Ying Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi-Chen Chiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ben-Hua Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-An Cui[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ling Yin[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yan-Hua Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qing-Long Zhao[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Li-Dong Gao[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Tian-Mu Chen[SUP] 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.
Methods: An epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model.
Results: The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P < 0.001). In Hunan Province, the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3 (median: β[SUB]43[/SUB] = 7.71 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]43[/SUB] = 3.86 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β[SUB]34[/SUB] = 3.07 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]34[/SUB] = 1.53 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]), group 2 to 2 (median: β[SUB]22[/SUB] = 1.24 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]22[/SUB] = 6.21 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]), and group 3 to 1 (median: β[SUB]31[/SUB] = 4.10 ? 10[SUP]- 10[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]31[/SUB] = 2.08 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]). The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3 (median: β[SUB]33[/SUB] = 1.64 ? 10[SUP]- 19[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]33[/SUB] = 8.19 ? 10[SUP]- 19[/SUP]), followed by group 4 to 4 (median: β[SUB]44[/SUB] = 3.66 ? 10[SUP]- 17[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]44[/SUB] = 1.83 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]), group 3 to 2 (median: β[SUB]32[/SUB] = 1.21 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]32[/SUB] = 6.06 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]), and group 1 to 4 (median: β[SUB]14[/SUB] = 7.20 ? 10[SUP]- 14[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]14[/SUB] = 3.60 ? 10[SUP]- 13[/SUP]). In Jilin Province, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4 (median: β[SUB]43[/SUB] = 4.27 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]43[/SUB] = 2.13 ? 10[SUP]- 7[/SUP]), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β[SUB]34[/SUB] = 1.81 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]34[/SUB] = 9.03 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]).
Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.
Keywords: Age-specific dynamics; COVID-19; Compartmental model; SARS-CoV-2; Transmissibility.
. 2020 Aug 26;9(1):117.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-020-00735-x.
A five-compartment model of age-specific transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2
Ze-Yu Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yuan-Zhao Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-Wen Xu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shi-Xiong Hu[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Qing-Qing Hu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Zhao Lei[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Rui[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Xing-Chun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yao Wang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Meng Yang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Li Luo[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Shan-Shan Yu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jia Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ruo-Yun Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Fang Xie[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying-Ying Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yi-Chen Chiang[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ben-Hua Zhao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Jing-An Cui[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Ling Yin[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Yan-Hua Su[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Qing-Long Zhao[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Li-Dong Gao[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Tian-Mu Chen[SUP] 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32843094
- DOI: 10.1186/s40249-020-00735-x
Abstract
Background: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, also called 2019-nCoV) causes different morbidity risks to individuals in different age groups. This study attempts to quantify the age-specific transmissibility using a mathematical model.
Methods: An epidemiological model with five compartments (susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed [SEIAR]) was developed based on observed transmission features. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, those ≤ 14 years old; group 2, those 15 to 44 years old; group 3, those 45 to 64 years old; and group 4, those ≥ 65 years old. The model was initially based on cases (including imported cases and secondary cases) collected in Hunan Province from January 5 to February 19, 2020. Another dataset, from Jilin Province, was used to test the model.
Results: The age-specific SEIAR model fitted the data well in each age group (P < 0.001). In Hunan Province, the highest transmissibility was from age group 4 to 3 (median: β[SUB]43[/SUB] = 7.71 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]43[/SUB] = 3.86 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β[SUB]34[/SUB] = 3.07 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]34[/SUB] = 1.53 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]), group 2 to 2 (median: β[SUB]22[/SUB] = 1.24 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]22[/SUB] = 6.21 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]), and group 3 to 1 (median: β[SUB]31[/SUB] = 4.10 ? 10[SUP]- 10[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]31[/SUB] = 2.08 ? 10[SUP]- 9[/SUP]). The lowest transmissibility was from age group 3 to 3 (median: β[SUB]33[/SUB] = 1.64 ? 10[SUP]- 19[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]33[/SUB] = 8.19 ? 10[SUP]- 19[/SUP]), followed by group 4 to 4 (median: β[SUB]44[/SUB] = 3.66 ? 10[SUP]- 17[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]44[/SUB] = 1.83 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]), group 3 to 2 (median: β[SUB]32[/SUB] = 1.21 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]32[/SUB] = 6.06 ? 10[SUP]- 16[/SUP]), and group 1 to 4 (median: β[SUB]14[/SUB] = 7.20 ? 10[SUP]- 14[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]14[/SUB] = 3.60 ? 10[SUP]- 13[/SUP]). In Jilin Province, the highest transmissibility occurred from age group 4 to 4 (median: β[SUB]43[/SUB] = 4.27 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]43[/SUB] = 2.13 ? 10[SUP]- 7[/SUP]), followed by group 3 to 4 (median: β[SUB]34[/SUB] = 1.81 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]; SAR[SUB]34[/SUB] = 9.03 ? 10[SUP]- 8[/SUP]).
Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 exhibits high transmissibility between middle-aged (45 to 64 years old) and elderly (≥ 65 years old) people. Children (≤ 14 years old) have very low susceptibility to COVID-19. This study will improve our understanding of the transmission feature of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups and suggest the most prevention measures should be applied to middle-aged and elderly people.
Keywords: Age-specific dynamics; COVID-19; Compartmental model; SARS-CoV-2; Transmissibility.