tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Infect Dis Model
. 2022 Jun;7(2):189-195.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005. Epub 2022 May 26.
Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
Shi Zhao[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Peihua Cao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Daozhou Gao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zian Zhuang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Weiming Wang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jinjun Ran[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Kai Wang[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Lin Yang[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Mohammad R Einollahi[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Yijun Lou[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Daihai He[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7-7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
Keywords: COVID-19; Diamond princess ship; Reproduction number; Transmission.
. 2022 Jun;7(2):189-195.
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005. Epub 2022 May 26.
Modelling COVID-19 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data
Shi Zhao[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Peihua Cao[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Daozhou Gao[SUP] 4 [/SUP], Zian Zhuang[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Weiming Wang[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Jinjun Ran[SUP] 7 [/SUP], Kai Wang[SUP] 8 [/SUP], Lin Yang[SUP] 9 [/SUP], Mohammad R Einollahi[SUP] 10 [/SUP], Yijun Lou[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Daihai He[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Maggie H Wang[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35637656
- PMCID: PMC9132685
- DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.005
Abstract
The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess (DP) ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on DP ship as a stochastic branching process, and estimate the reproduction number at the innitial phase of 2.9 (95%CrI: 1.7-7.7). The epidemic doubling time is 3.4 days, and thus timely actions on COVID-19 control were crucial. We estimate the COVID-19 transmissibility reduced 34% after the quarantine program on the DP ship which was implemented on February 5. According to the model simulation, relocating the population at risk may sustainably decrease the epidemic size, postpone the timing of epidemic peak, and thus relieve the tensive demands in the healthcare. The lesson learnt on the ship should be considered in other similar settings.
Keywords: COVID-19; Diamond princess ship; Reproduction number; Transmission.