Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. The time-varying serial interval of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its gender-specific difference: A data-drive

[tetano]

Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2020 Mar 9:1-8. doi: 10.1017/ice.2020.64. [Epub ahead of print] [h=1]The time-varying serial interval of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its gender-specific difference: A data-driven analysis using public surveillance data in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, China from January 10 to February 15, 2020.[/h]
Zhao S[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Cao P[SUP]3[/SUP], Chong MK[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Gao D[SUP]4[/SUP], Lou Y[SUP]5[/SUP], Ran J[SUP]6[/SUP], Wang K[SUP]7[/SUP], Wang W[SUP]8[/SUP], Yang L[SUP]9[/SUP], He D[SUP]5[/SUP], Wang MH[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h]

[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] coronavirus disease 2019; gender; mitigation; serial interval; statistical analysis

PMID: 32146921 DOI: 10.1017/ice.2020.64

 

[mscox]

This was really interesting and potentially could explain why Italy is experiencing such a huge infection rate and also provide the necessary clues as to how best to slow this disease down, to maximise the chances of containment and eradication.

Let me explain. The study identifies two key differences in the SI, which together with the R0, affect whether the virus spreads exponentially or diminishes progressively. First, in China and Hong Kong the SI for women is 50% greater (slower infection chains) than for men! Second, after social distancing measures were introduced, the SI was practically doubled (slowed massively) which allowed the containment and breaking of chains which avoids clusters.

This difference between the sexes is what captures my attention and I postulate it is cultural. The amount of physical social contact and frequency of contact between men in China/HK is much higher, handshakes, paying, etc than women. However in Italy, this isn't true. The physical contact socially between both men and women in EU and especially Italy, is more intense (double cheek kissing) and equally engaged between sexes. This may have driven a lower SI and thus significantly increased the infection spread. This needs to be researched, even if just at a high level review of how many women vs how many men infected in Italy. Is it a ratio of 2-3:1 like China? If not, well I'd say that means something.

If this is true, then have everyone stop interacting physically in social contexts, so no hugs, no handshakes, no cheek kissing and I'd even recommend no elbow bumps, just avoid contact entirely but politely. This may allow other government driven measures to kick in and get this pandemic under control.