Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

[Gert van der Hoek]

4 September 2008

Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Jakarta - the Case avian influenza or bird flu in Indonesia including highest in in the Asian region. Unfortunately, only 30 percent that was reported to the health body of the world like WHO and FAO.

This was revealed by the Deputy the Sipteknas Field, Kementerian of the Riset Country and Technology (KNRT) Amen Soebandrio in gaps workshop Avian Influenza in the Lipi Building, Gatot Subroto, Jakarta, on Thursday (4/9/2008).

"This because Indonesia did not yet have the complete and accurate data." Indeed if the death of the poultry was not reported, but if the case of the death of the humankind because of being not detected by "words Amin."

This, he continued, was caused from the community's reluctance to report this case. "They were frightened if being reported will cause the problem," he stated. Amin also acknowledged, still many weaknesses in surveilance also increased the list of the lack of the data. "Ought to be reported periodically, was not waiting for a certain case," he stressed.

In the meantime, he continued, to 2008 Indonesia experienced the case of the decline in bird flu. "Indeed this something that was positive, but not meant us ignored him." Justeru in the case of the decline, we must be on the alert because the incident to the poultry continued to be and humankind continued to be threatened, "he said."

http://news.okezone.com/index.php/R.../indonesia-hanya-laporkan-30-kasus-flu-burung

 

[Commonground]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Lampung:

Ironically, the resident Talangrejo and Talang Aman did not yet report this to the equipment side pekon (the village). "We did not dare to report to the village side, because the death" of "the chicken only was it was considered trivial for them." Than embarrassed, it was better to be not reported then.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=177348&postcount=214

They don't report deal poultry to the WHO. I know they don't submit OIE Reports. I don't know if they are supposedly reporting dead birds to the FAO.

"Ini karena Indonesia belum mempunyai data yang lengkap dan akurat. Memang kalau kematian unggas tidak dilaporkan, tetapi kalau kasus kematian manusia itu karena tidak terdeteksi," kata Amin.

word for word translation:
"This because Indonesia not yet to possess data which complete and exact. Actually when death poultry not reported, but when/if cases death human being that due to the fact that not detected" words Amin.


So how can they say that in 2008 there has been a decline?

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

They can not say that with any degree of reliability.

This situation calls into question many items - one being, what is the real case fatality rate in H5N1 there?

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Dr Amin Soebandrio on pandemic Influenza workshop (2005)
http://www.iom.edu/?id=21680Avian Influenza: Indonesian Experience


http://www.iom.edu/File.aspx?ID=21654

 

[HenryN]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Lampung:


http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=177348&postcount=214

They don't report deal poultry to the WHO. I know they don't submit OIE Reports. I don't know if they are supposedly reporting dead birds to the FAO.



word for word translation:
"This because Indonesia not yet to possess data which complete and exact. Actually when death poultry not reported, but when/if cases death human being that due to the fact that not detected" words Amin.


So how can they say that in 2008 there has been a decline?

OIE is FAO. Indonesia's last OIE report was in 2006.

 

[Commonground]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

OIE is FAO. Indonesia's last OIE report was in 2006.

Then that puts a whole new meaning to this statement, the first statement, of the article:

Jakarta - the Case avian influenza or bird flu in Indonesia including highest in in the Asian region. Unfortunately, only 30 percent that was reported to the health body of the world like WHO and FAO.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Reported to WHO:

Of the 135 cases confirmed to date in Indonesia, 110 have been fatal.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2008_06_19/en/index.html

If 135 = 30%, 100 % = 450 cases;

If 110 = 30%, 100% = 367 deaths.

Just numbers , many assumed there was/is underreporting, I am glad an official is coming out. My personal estimation was and is: 10% is reported, cannot prove that ofcourse, just a feeling. The important thing is: underreporting has been acknowlegd now.

Don't forget there are very many remote villages, but also many slums (Jakarta and other cities), many poor people who do not go to a doctor; falling ill and dying with high fever is a part of life, (dengue fever, malaria, typhus, pneumonia); it is very hard to even know these patients and to diagnose all these patients via lab tests.

It is understandable people hesitate to report dying chickens, before you know it, they take your chickens away. There is a compensation scheme, but many do not put their trust in it.
It seems clear when bird flu is reported in poultry somewhere, this often triggers reports of (suspect) bird flu patients.

Compared to some other countries, Indonesia is reporting very well and we see serious efforts to improve the bird flu situation.

Indonesia receives support from WHO, FAO, UNICEF, USA, Australia, Japan and others to fight bird flu. I am sure Indonesia will receive even more support if the authorities will step over their hesitations to be as frank as possible on the bird flu situation.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

"Indonesia receives support from WHO, FAO, UNICEF, USA, Australia, Japan and others to fight bird flu. I am sure Indonesia will receive even more support if the authorities will step over their hesitations to be as frank as possible on the bird flu situation."

I agree 100%.

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Good point from Mike Coston:

it is difficult to tell whether or not this 70% gap in reporting applies equally to human cases as well as birds.


http://afludiary.blogspot.com/

 

[Commonground]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

In my opinion, it has to apply to humans. We know that they have not reported any birds to the FAO/OIE since 2006. (According to Dr. Niman).

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

OIE ISN'T FAO. OIE is not part of United Nations.

It is the usual chaotic mix-up of information: Indonesia is amidst a political turmoil, with extensive administrative decentralization.

International assitance and UN agencies seem to work in Indonesia but results aren't measurable.

For comparison Caucasus Georgia obtained a pledge for funding for around 1 bln of US$ after recent military d?bacle...

For comparison, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar didn't send official report to OIE in recent weeks and SEARO website didn't update respective countries information since mid June 2008.

Thailand didn't update about human surveillance for severe pneumonia since March 2008.

What's the actual number of missed human H5N1 cases in the region?

Some at FT continue to hit Indonesia but other countries seem to behave similarly.

More equilibrate discussion are urgently needed.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

I want to support ironorehopper's comments above. Much of the focus on human H5N1 cases has emphasized Indonesia recently. However, there are many news threads throughout FT that suggest that human H5N1 cases are misdiagnosed, misreported, or even officially overlooked throughout a number of countries in Asia and Southeast Asia.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Thank you Ironorehopper for that reminder and I also agree.

All countries should be forthcoming about their disease status.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

We have need of promptly update for more countries in Asia and elsewhere.

Thailand no longer updates its data about severe pneumonia surveillance; previously, Ministry of Health released update at daily basis.

See the dedicated page at: http://thaigcd.ddc.moph.go.th/Bird_Flu_main_en.html - Last update: March 25, 2008 (http://thaigcd.ddc.moph.go.th/download/AI_file/AI_case_report/AI_case_report_080325.pdf)

SEARO avian influenza page: http://www.searo.who.int/en/section10/section1027.htm

Bangladesh: last update June 18, 2008 (http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2462_13930.htm)

India: last update June 4, 2008 (http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2462_13929.htm)

Indonesia: last update June 19, 2008 (http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2366_13425.asp)

Myanmar: last update December 31, 2007 (http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2366_13884.htm)

Thailand: last update, January 27, 2008 (http://www.searo.who.int/en/Section10/Section1027/Section2095/Section2462_13931.htm)

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[Giuseppe]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

Another point: how does the expert (that stated as 30% the level of H5N1 detection in humans) say that vast majority of H5N1 human cases were missed?

Have they a robust morbidity and mortality database and by this way they detected a substantial increase in excess mortality for certain regions or province (eg: Tangerang, Sumatra)?

What was the age-distribution of this supposed excess mortality rate?

The time-line of excess deaths reporting...

 

[Gert van der Hoek]

Re: Indonesia Only reported 30% Cases of Bird Flu

This report from Media Indonesia from the same speech at the same workshop seems to indicate the underreporting is about birds:

The report on the Case to the Poultry not Realistic

Jumat, 05 September 2008 00:01 WIB

Jakarta: Indonesia was it was thought not transparent in sending the data of bird flu of the case incident to the poultry to the Organisation of Internasional Food.

Currently, the report on the case of bird flu from Indonesia had not been included in the periodic Food and Agriculture Organization report (FAO) the unit of Avian Influenza Control Programme that was aimed to various countries.

"The number of cases of the plague of bird flu to the poultry that it was reported to the world of 15% from the total actual case happened," said Chairman Panel Ahli the Nasional Pengendalian Committee of Bird Flu and Menghadapi Pandemi Influenza Preparedness (Komnas FBPI) Amin Soebandrio in Jakarta, yesterday.

Amin said the total case of the plague of the extraordinary incident bird flu that it was reported till this year to FAO only totalled 200 through to 300 cases to the poultry. The number of cases of this bird flu was assessed apart from the reason.

His article, Vietnam widely the territory and the poultry that the amount was smaller than Indonesia reported 2,000 more the case to FAO. "Therefore, the expert's panel estimated was gotten 2,000 through to 3,000 cases outbreak" to the poultry in the Motherland, said Amen.

Gotten by various factors that became the cause of the report on the case of bird flu to the poultry in Indonesia was unrealistic. Generally, the area lazy at reporting the case incident of bird flu to the poultry to the government of the centre.

Amin suspected them of being frightened the poultry will in their area take part in being destroyed. As a result, the report from the province to the government of the centre was then not intact.

The expert's panel also revealed the Organisation of the Health of the World (WHO) no longer made the report on the bird flu incident in humankind periodically.

His article, several countries no longer give the report on the bird flu incident in a manner per the case, for example to be Indonesia. On the basis of the security, the government broke indirectly reported the case incident of bird flu to humankind to WHO.

Menurut Amin, Indonesia stayed committed sent the case of bird flu to WHO, but with the different mechanism. The "form" of the "report was given periodically." For example, after several cases happened or within a certain time.

Never again per the incident, afterwards was reported, he explained. In the same opportunity, the Chief Executive of the Komnas FBPI Bayu Krisnamurti Daily explained, entered 2008, tren the case of the bird flu incident in humankind tended to descend.

"To humankind, per the month in general only one case." The number was far more lower if against the period that was same in the year beforehand, he explained.

In relation to the phenomenon, Amin had the opinion was different from Bayu Krisnamurti. The "government must continue to be on the alert," ordered he. His article, in 2007, in the first semester, the case of bird flu to humankind was not found.

Moreover, the government declared zero cases of bird flu in 2007. However, gazed at the year end, when the rain season arrived, the case of bird flu was then bright. Moreover Indonesia including the country with the AI incident in tallest humankind in the world. The last WHO data on June 19 2008 recorded 112 people died from the total 135 positive cases of bird flu in the Motherland.

http://www.mediaindonesia.com/index.php?ar_id=MjgwMDI=

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178006&postcount=171