Indonesia Discussion

[ukcz]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

P4 without a doubt. The next stages can't be predicted.

May I bring members' attention to this draft timeline: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=6508
If you can fill in any blanks (like the start of symptoms for the question marked people) it would be appreciated.
I'm a graphical kind of chap ;-)

 

[Goju]

Powder keg

Powder keg

Indonesia is a powder keg of H5N1. The fuse is an event which will mask evidence of efficient sustained H5N1 infections... the pandemic start.

The match was the earthquake IMHO.

We now have 675,000 people living out in the open with virtually no fresh water and food and shelter. Disease typical in these situations has begun by now to take it's toll in human tragedy and hospital overloads.

People are living in chicken coops. they are drinking water from wherever they can find it... mixed with chicken and animal waste. They must be eating whatever wildlife they can find... hopefully they can make fire for cooking.

If the pandemic strain emerges in this mass of sufering humanity, we will never see it. It will blend into all the casualites already there.

The virus will have an opportunity to break into Jakarta and onto international flights before anyone realizes what has happened.

Our first "notification" could be out of a major city on the other side of the planet.

All just my humble opinion.

Goju

 

[Goju]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

Sustained transmission by dropplet is not the same as aerosol transmission right?... can we have a pandemic if it is not aerosoled? how long do we think it will take to get that way?

I agree with the timetable. i think the place to watch is the earthquake zone and all surrounding areas inc. Jakarta.

I think a Fall strike is likely.

And we still don't know whats happening in Africa, China and most every other country infected.

I do sense an increased tension in everyone's nerves on the flu boards. We here seem to be most calm and rational.

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

I think a Fall strike is likely.

Why do you think Autumn and when in your Autumn?

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

I understand your reactuion Anne,

But I think Goju meant the Boreal Automn, is that so Goju ?

 

[Goju]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

Autumn northern hemisphere.
Based on 1918, spring saw the first cases and Oct saw the highest deathrate wave. Temps drop - people stay indoors more... peek flu time here.

This monster may break out of its cage soon, seed around the world then BAM as weather cools off.

Dont know how it is down under.

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

There is a paper about seasonal changes affecting the mutation of influenza viruses. Does any one have a link to it? I think it is an old paper.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

Where are the missing 50,000 cartons of Australian Tamiflu which was gifted to Indonesia?

That was a 4 million dollar USD profit, selling those off wholesale.

Of course Indonesia wants more Tamiflu. Let's send that instead of money. Because money can be embezzled and Tamiflu can help out those who bought the Tamiflu and sold it to all those internet buyers.

If that 50,000 was available for use, there'd be zero reason to ask for any more stock. But Tamiflu in Indonesia, like Garuda, spread its wings and flew away.

Not one head will roll there. Not one MSM reporter will inquire. Nothing happens.

And WHO, as the paper tiger it is, says nothing, does nothing.

This is brought to your attention so you recognize who are the players here and what they're doing for you and me to prevent the phase 6 outbreak.

Send money and Tamiflu. Or better yet, send it over here and I'll "deliver" it to them.

 

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

I understand your reactuion Anne,

But I think Goju meant the Boreal Automn, is that so Goju ?

Not a reaction at all, Snowy. I have been looking for a paper about the effect of seasons on influenza. It was referenced in the book Black November.

 

[Mingus]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

What do you all think ?

Is there a passage in the Koran that forbidden pigs to be eaten or is it just a part of the arabic-medineranean culture ?

I think we need a massive swine culling in Indonesian right now.

It could work ! But I doubt it will be done.

The problem, is that It will produce a massive famine...

Eat soya everyone, eat soya !

 

[pamwv41]

Re: Indonesia Discussion

About pork, the Koran says:
"Mankind, eat anything lawful, wholesome that exists on earth do not follow in Satan's footsteps; he is an open enemy of yours.He merely orders you to commit evil and shocking deeds, and to say what you do not know about God. Whenever someone tells them: "Follow what God has sent down;" they say: "Rather we will follow what we discovered our forefathers were doing," even though their forefathers did not use reason in any way nor were they guided. Those who disbelieve may be compared to those who bleat away at something that only listens to calls and cries: deaf, dumb and blind, they do not use their reason. You who believe, eat any wholesome things We have provided you with and thank God if it is He whom you worship.
He has only forbidden you what has died by itself, blood and pork, and anything that has been consecrated to something besides God. Yet anyone who may be forced to do so, without craving or going too far, will have no offence held against him; for God is Forgiving, Merciful.