India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

The first vaccine production run will be 5-6 million doses.
The current population of India is 1.2 billion.

 

[Treyfish]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

Hyderabad sees spurt in H1N1 cases
R Akhileshwari, Hyderabad, Sep 16, DH News Service:

Hyderabad has been witnessing a spurt in A(H1N1) influenza cases, said to be as a result of change in weather and the mutating flu virus.


The city has recorded 14 deaths due to A(H1N1) infection, five of them in the last three days. The government-run Gandhi Hospital was once again the scene of another A(H1N1)-related death, with Santoshi, a patient from jangaon in Warangal district, succumbing to the infection on Tuesday. The first A(H1N1) case in the country was reported in Hyderabad on May 16. The city reported its first victim to the virus on September 2.

Health experts believe the A(H1N1) virus has been mutating with local variants to become more virulent, with low temperatures and wet weather providing an ideal breeding ground.

As a way of substantiating their claims, they say that patients are dying within 24 to 48 hours after being infected by the virus. "The virus is not giving any chance to the doctors to treat the patient. That's why even patients with good immunity are dying," said Dr E A Ashok Kumar, superintendent of the government-run Gandhi hospital here.

Dr S V Prasad, superintendent of the government-run Chest Hospital?the nodal agency for swine flu treatment?believed the virus must have undergone change in its genetic make-up as it seem to affect patients faster than before. Given its virulence, Dr Prasad said the present virus must have emerged from the one imported from abroad, which has mutated with local variants.
Meanwhile, authorities at government-run hospitals are forced to turn away the increasing number of patients with A(H1N1) symptoms due to lack of equipment and space.
Corporate hospitals are also closing their doors for Flu patients, fearing that they would spread the virus inside their campuses.

The case of 20-year-old Ashish Raj was an unfortunate one as he had been turned away by no less than three hospitals. Raj was sent away on Saturday by a corporate hospital and two government ones, including Chest Hospital.

Osmania Government Hospital finally admitted him after considerable begging and pleading from Raj's relatives, before death had put an end to his plight.

Government hospitals reasoned that Raj could have been turned away since they were short of beds and some crucial equipment like ventilators. The Chest Hospital, however, had no such reasons. On Sunday, it admitted S A M Rizvi, District Collector of Nalgonda.

Rizvi was taken in as he was suspected to have A(H1N1) influenza. He was later moved to a corporate hospital, where he is said to be recovering. District officials confirmed that Rizvi tested positive for A(H1N1).

A major worry for the government is that the virus seems to be affecting people with no travel history. The state has taken measures to prevent the infection from spiralling into a major epidemic. It has set up screening centres in all district hospitals from Tuesday and would keep Hyderabad's Institute of Preventive Medicine open 24 hours a day.

Chief Minister K Rosaiah has promised that the state has enough Tamiflu stocks to tackle the escalating cases.

Meanwhile, the number of cases in Hyderabad is on the rise, with health officials confirming that the figure now stands at 319.

Rosaiah said the government has decided to include A(H1N1) cases as part of the Arogyasri insurance scheme for the poor, since the cost of treatment is Rs 9,000 per patient.

This is likely to benefit those below poverty line?who form a majority of A(H1N1) cases?holding ration cards. The benefit is significant, as treatment cost can go up to Rs 60,000 per patient.
:tiphat:http://www.deccanherald.com/contents/70/national.html
:tiphat:RORO
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[sharon sanders]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent: Health officials

I moved this thread to the India forum for better visibility.

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

Patrick Berche, Head of Medicine Faculty of Paris-V Descartes and Chief of bacteriology-parasitology-virology at Necker Hospital stated in the French Prestigious paper Le Monde that;

If the deaths of youger people in good health multiply in the weeks to come, it will then be cause of alarm. In the History of Viruses, scientifics have notice that these change their virulence about the same time World Wide.

While Didier Raoult, sp?cialist of infectious diseases in Marseille Timone Hospital gave the following example;

One thing is sure, this is not an ordinary flu. This flu is unique, it follows a particular scheme not seen until now.

I just got back from an International Congress on H1N1 in the U.S.A.
ing a mutated version of H1N1.

This mutation might not explain all deaths without underlying medical conditions, but it has to be considered.

http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/artic...-experts-face-a-la-grippe-a_1240688_3244.html

 

[hawkeye]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

Going along with Patrick Berche, it seems given all the time estimates, we are soon approaching critical hour (or mass). Which I assume, if a mutation has occurred, it will become more noticeable, similar to what happened in 1918. First it's just 1 or 2, then it's 10, then it's hundreds.

Not to frighten, but it seems if we start seeing increase in deaths, is it likely to stop at 2 per 1000..etc?

 

[Emily]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

Just throwing this out as a possibility - a localized genetic demographic with immune susceptibility. (Not saying that is not serious is every way, though, both to the suffering and to the big picture.)

http://www.rti.org/newsletters/witw/2009feb-mar/index.cfm?feature
RTI fen/march 2009
The study team suspected Indians could have greater genetic variation in their gene pool than some other groups, because of the population?s varied demographic history. To determine whether these distinctions occur, the study used participants? samples to examine 270 genes thought to be involved with the body?s immune response.

What they found: genetic changes in the Indian population that had never been seen in other populations. In addition to uncovering this genetic variation, initial analysis also revealed information on individual immune responses to the vaccines.

?The basic tenet in all of vaccination is that individuals will show an immune response?but that?s an assumption,? Majumder said. ?Our study is showing there is a huge amount of variability in immune response, which means that the same vaccine will not be as effective in all individuals.?

 

[Mamabird]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

India was devastated by the 1918 Pandemic. I sincerely hope we are not witnessing the beginning of a re-run. Close monitoring required.

 

[Roehl_JC]

Re: India - H1N1 strain turns virulent?: Health officials

The World Health Organization has confirmed 3,205 deaths globally from swine flu but experts agree all estimates of the extent of the pandemic are grossly understated because so few patients are ever actually tested.

Seasonal flu kills, too -- about 250,000 to 500,000 cases a year globally, according to the WHO. But not in the same way as swine flu, which unlike seasonal flu frequently causes severe disease in young adults and children.

"It is very rarely you see what we call diffuse alveolar damage in fatal seasonal influenza," Zaki told a meeting sponsored by the U.S. Institute of Medicine, which advises government on health matters.

Seasonal flu causes bronchitis and other upper respiratory disease. But Zaki, the chief infectious disease pathologist at CDC, said the new virus had burrowed into the lungs of the 90 or so people he examined after they died, and they had huge amounts of the virus in their blood.

"This is almost exactly what we see with avian flu," Zaki said. "This looks like avian flu on steroids."

http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-42484120090916

If the predominant strain/variant/reassortant of H1N1 becomes the one that causes highly pathogenic complications in just 1-2% more pandemic victims, this will sooner rather than later show up the lack of sufficient ventilators in the developing world IMO. We know that Dr. Zaki is speaking from experience as the CDC's chief pathologist to other medical experts. If anything, the way the pandemic has thus far been portrayed would have to be changed into something of enforcing some sort of means of better social distancing, and more practical alternatives developed for the more serious possible scenarios. I'm sure there's been table-top exercises on these matters, but I wonder how practical the measures would be. And the big question is would a second wave pathogen H1N1 (swHP) escape current vaccines, or would a third wave variant? Certainly there should be more than one variant by now, or certainly variations in human populations and in economic development will have to be seriously considered so measures can be undertaken to reduce deaths and illness in impoverished communities.