tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
J Gen Virol. 2013 Dec 5. doi: 10.1099/vir.0.059998-0. [Epub ahead of print]
Increasing similarity in the dynamics of influenza in two adjacent subtropical Chinese cities, following the relaxation of border restrictions.
Tan Y, Lam TT, Wu C, Lee SS, Viboud C, Zhang R, Weinberger DM.
Source
National Institutes of Health, USA;
Abstract
The drivers of influenza seasonality remain heavily debated, especially in tropical/subtropical regions where influenza activity can peak in winter, during the rainy season, or remain constant throughout the year. We compared the epidemiological and evolutionary patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two adjacent cities in subtropical southern China. This comparison represents a unique natural experiment as connectivity between these two cities has increased over the past decade. We found that while summer influenza epidemics in Shenzhen used to peak 1-3 months later than those in Hong Kong, the difference decreased after 2005 (p<0.0001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that influenza isolates from Shenzhen have become genetically closer to those circulating in Hong Kong over time (p=0.045). Further, although Shenzhen isolates used to be more distant from the global putative source of influenza viruses than isolates from Hong Kong (p<0.001), this difference has narrowed (p=0.02). Overall, our study reveals that the influenza activities show remarkably distinct epidemiological and evolutionary patterns in adjacent subtropical cities and suggests that human mobility patterns can play a major role on influenza dynamics in the Subtropics.
KEYWORDS:
genetic distance, influenza, population mixing, seasonality, southern China
PMID:
24310518
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24310518
Increasing similarity in the dynamics of influenza in two adjacent subtropical Chinese cities, following the relaxation of border restrictions.
Tan Y, Lam TT, Wu C, Lee SS, Viboud C, Zhang R, Weinberger DM.
Source
National Institutes of Health, USA;
Abstract
The drivers of influenza seasonality remain heavily debated, especially in tropical/subtropical regions where influenza activity can peak in winter, during the rainy season, or remain constant throughout the year. We compared the epidemiological and evolutionary patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two adjacent cities in subtropical southern China. This comparison represents a unique natural experiment as connectivity between these two cities has increased over the past decade. We found that while summer influenza epidemics in Shenzhen used to peak 1-3 months later than those in Hong Kong, the difference decreased after 2005 (p<0.0001). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that influenza isolates from Shenzhen have become genetically closer to those circulating in Hong Kong over time (p=0.045). Further, although Shenzhen isolates used to be more distant from the global putative source of influenza viruses than isolates from Hong Kong (p<0.001), this difference has narrowed (p=0.02). Overall, our study reveals that the influenza activities show remarkably distinct epidemiological and evolutionary patterns in adjacent subtropical cities and suggests that human mobility patterns can play a major role on influenza dynamics in the Subtropics.
KEYWORDS:
genetic distance, influenza, population mixing, seasonality, southern China
PMID:
24310518
[PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24310518