Impact Risk for Object (29075) 1950 DA and Object (101955) 1999 RQ36, Update (NASA NEO, edited)

[Giuseppe]

Impact Risk for Object (29075) 1950 DA and Object (101955) 1999 RQ36, Update (NASA NEO, edited)

[Source: NASA, Near Earth Object Program, Sentry Risk Table, <cite cite="http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/">Current Impact Risks</cite>. 7/27/10.]

Impact Risk for Object (29075) 1950 DA and Object (101955) 1999 RQ36, Update

• 2010-Jul-26
  • In some cases, investigations into potential impacts are conducted for more than 100 years into the future. Currently, there are two well-observed objects for which long-term analyses have been carried out.
  1. 1. Asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, has a significant possibility of impact on March 16, 2880. A careful computation of the impact probability, which is less than 0.33%, is challenging because the orientation of its spin pole is poorly known. Giorgini et al. (Science, Vol. 296. no. 5565, pp. 132 - 136, 2002) analyzed this object's motion, which is discussed here (LINK)
     2. The second object, (101955) 1999 RQ36, currently has non-zero impact probabilities on numerous occasions during the years after 2165. This is analyzed in a paper published by Milani et al. (Icarus, Vol. 203, pp. 460-471, 2009), which is available as here: (LINK).
  • Note the Torino Scale is formally undefined for potential impacts more than one century into the future and so not applicable in such cases.

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[Giuseppe]

Re: Impact Risk for Object (29075) 1950 DA and Object (101955) 1999 RQ36, Update (NASA NEO, edited)

Potentially hazardous asteroid might collide with the Earth in 2182

[Source: EurekAlert, View Original Article. 7/27/10.]

The potentially hazardous asteroid, (101955) 1999 RQ36, has a one-in-a-thousand chance of impacting the Earth, and more than half of this probability indicates that this could happen in the year 2182, based on a global study in which Spanish researchers have been involved. Knowing this fact may help design in advance mechanisms aimed at deviating the asteroid's path.
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