tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Immune Netw
. 2022 May 18;22(3):e23.
doi: 10.4110/in.2022.22.e23. eCollection 2022 Jun.
Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition
Hyukpyo Hong[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ji Yun Noh[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Hyojung Lee[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Sunhwa Choi[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Boseung Choi[SUP] 2 7 [/SUP], Jae Kyoung Kim[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eui-Cheol Shin[SUP] 3 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of 'living with COVID-19.'
Keywords: COVID-19; Endemic transition; Immunity; SARS-CoV-2; Severity.
. 2022 May 18;22(3):e23.
doi: 10.4110/in.2022.22.e23. eCollection 2022 Jun.
Modeling Incorporating the Severity-Reducing Long-term Immunity: Higher Viral Transmission Paradoxically Reduces Severe COVID-19 During Endemic Transition
Hyukpyo Hong[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Ji Yun Noh[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Hyojung Lee[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Sunhwa Choi[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Boseung Choi[SUP] 2 7 [/SUP], Jae Kyoung Kim[SUP] 1 2 [/SUP], Eui-Cheol Shin[SUP] 3 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35799710
- PMCID: PMC9250866
- DOI: 10.4110/in.2022.22.e23
Abstract
Natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of 'living with COVID-19.'
Keywords: COVID-19; Endemic transition; Immunity; SARS-CoV-2; Severity.