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IEEFA: EU may need to cut winter gas demand by 7% with gas storage at a record seasonal low

Commonground

Senior Moderator
October 09, 2026
EU winter gas demand rebounded in the last two winters while net imports stayed flat, leaving storage to fill the gap. EU gas storage withdrawals in the winter of 2024–25 were 50% higher than in the preceding two winters.

The EU is heading into winter with gas storage about 72.4% full, the lowest for this time of year since records began in 2011. Combined with the EU’s full ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas from January 2027, this means the bloc may need to reduce its 2026–27 winter gas demand by 7% year on year.

IEEFA estimates that covering the storage shortfall with extra gas imports instead of reducing demand would cost €3 billion. Because the US–Iran war has pushed up gas prices, this is 12% more than the same volume would have cost in 2025. Consequently, an increased reliance on gas storage has become a major financial liability for Europe.

Spending money to expand gas storage risks locking in fossil fuel infrastructure for decades. Funding heat pumps, energy efficiency, industrial electrification and renewables instead would cut the winter gas demand peaks that strain storage in the first place, offering a long-term solution that shields against future crises.

Continued: https://ieefa.org/resources/eu-may-need-cut-winter-gas-demand-7-gas-storage-record-seasonal-low
 
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