Hi,
With all the media reports regarding H1N1 it is important to be able to identify weak or bad reporting, and those that are simply repeating a public perception message, and those based in hysteria. It is also good to be able to pick out a badly informed government spokesperson, doctor, health department worker.
I have a couple of rules that I use as queues that set off warning bells when I see them in the media or anywhere;
- Patient went to hospital or doctor and was told they had novel H1N1 the same day. There is a rapid test to identify if a patient has influenza but there is no rapid test that identifies the novel H1N1 strain. Without a clinical test which takes a number of days the diagnosis is a guess and it could be any influenza strain. It may be a reasonable guess, but a guess none the less. So if people are quoted as saying I had novel H1N1 and it was nothing, but did not have confirmed testing of same it could have been anything.
- Any story that indicates the novel H1N1 strain is similar to seasonal flu. Seasonal flu does not cause pediatric death/hospitalizations in the height of summer.
- Any story that indicates the early flu season is a surprise. Anybody simply not repeating knows how different this flu season is and nothing is a surprise.
- Any story that indicates handwashing and cough/sneeze etiquette is sufficient to slowing down the pandemic. Research has shown that handwashing is statisticly insignifigant in preventing the spread of inlfuenza. We all have had the flu and we all know that sometimes sneezes happen to quickly to reach a sleeve or tissue. The only thing that curbs influenza spread is isolation for those not in hospital.
- Any story that indicates that keeping schools open is the safest thing to do. This may be part of the ecominic recovery plan (children in school parents can work), but nobody in their right mind would keep a school open while pandemic raged in the community. With a 40% infection rate and 20% severe complication rate workers will be in short supply during the flu peak in mid October.
- Any story that indicates there will vaccine in place to protect populations. Vaccine protection will only come onboard (two injections, two weeks apart, two weeks to produce antibodies) in Nov-Dec, and then only for small numbers of risk groups. The peak of the influenza season this year is expected hit mid October so the vaccine will be too late.
- Any story that pits official government bodies press releases that are in conflict. A good government speaks with one voice in a crisis, when there are multiple conflicting voices it only sews confusion. Confusion is only sewn to establish plausible deniabiltiy for when things get bad. These sorts of things can appear over days. For example PCAST issued a press release on Monday that the CDC refuted on Tuesday, however the CDC was well represented on the PCAST working group that made the Monday press release. Suspicious.
These are a few that I use and I am sure many of you have others.
Tom
Then about all that is left is the funny papers. Good luck, T.