Iceland has decided to jump right into proper scientific methodology in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, rather than “panic now and evaluate later.” The country, which has followed similar
social distancing strategies as other European nations, has been conducting a random sample (i.e., scientifically useful) test of its population — with results from 1.5% of its population so far. This means it is testing a true representative portion of its population.
Disclaimer: we don’t know the full results yet. Time is also important in a test like this, and we will have to wait for the broadest and most firm conclusions. Nonetheless, there are some positive findings so far, so read on.
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Relatively speaking (per thousand people or per million people), the number per million tested in Iceland is almost 4? the number per million tested in South Korea. (South Korea was testing 10,000 people a day before the US had even tested 5,000 — despite both countries having their first case confirmed on the same day — and appears to be second in regards to number of people tested per million. The country has tested approximately 268,000 people, or about 1 out of every 200 people.)
OK, let’s get to the results.
“deCode has published the results of a total of 5 490 tests. Those have yielded 47 positive results (0.86%) indicating that the prevelance (
sic) of the virus is modest among the general population,”
the Government of Iceland reports. “A total of 409 cases have been identified in Iceland since the first case on February 28th. One person with COVID-19 has died. Six individuals with COVID-19 are hospitalized, one in intensive care.”
The country is following social distancing guidelines several other countries and states have been following.
“About a third (36.4%) of cases can be traced to overseas travel, mostly to high-risk areas identified in the European Alps. More than a quarter (27.9%) of cases have been traced to domestic transmission. The rest (35.7%) have not been conclusively traced to a source of transmission. …
“The results of the additional tests performed by deCode have given an indication that efforts to limit the spread of the virus have been effective so far. In Iceland, these measures have focused on testing, contact tracing of infections, social distancing, public efforts to increase basic awareness of hand sanitation, voluntary self-quarantine measures (currently about 4 200 individuals), and strict measures at healthcare institutions, nursing homes and the likes. Of the 409 cases identified 10 are individuals over age 70, considered to be the most at-risk group.
“A ban on gatherings of 100 people or more took effect on March 15 and are planned to remain for four weeks. Secondary and tertiary education institutions have closed, but primary schools and kindergartens will remain open with specific measures implemented to limit infection risks. Icelanders abroad have been advised to return home early, and Iceland has decided to join the EU/Schengen ban on non-essential travel from outside the area.
“It will remain the focus of Icelandic authorities to slow down the spread of the virus in order to protect the infrastructure of the healthcare system. Iceland will also focus on using its geographic location and high testing capabilities to provide information and data to the global scientific community in order to contribute to a better understanding and help limit the damage being done by the pandemic.”
Importantly, approximately half of the people who tested positive for COVID-19 are non-symptomatic, according to Gudnason as reported by
BuzzFeed. The other half is mostly showing “very moderate cold-like symptoms.”
Everyone In Iceland Can Get Tested For The Coronavirus. Here's How The Results Could Help All Of Us.
