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I am confused

V

vinny

Well-known member
We are told a pandemic is imminent with WHO possibly going to level 6 in the next few days.but if the symptoms of this virus are mild,why have they raised the levels,i understand they have to err on the side of caution.

but i am so confused by it all the spread of it so far apart from mexico is no where as bad.i understand it could mix with another flu virus and come back stronger.but everyone who gets this so far is recovering again apart from mexico.

either they are trying to pull the wool over our eyes,by not telling us the truth over this virus,or we are going to be lucky and have a mild pandemic.

thoughts anyone.
 
Re: I am confused

It may have to do with the expectation of waves.. First wave of 1918 was mild.. It was the Autumn when it really kicked in..

Good question though, others will probably have more answers. :)
 
Re: I am confused

Vinny - you bring up an important point.

WHO has a difficult job in trying to portray a complex situation in a simple easy-to-understand manner. The are using a measuring tool (6 phases) that primarily describes effective transmission and number of cases. But it is not an adequate measurement of a disease's ability to cause serious illness and death. That would require a different measuring tool. I believe this difficulty is the reason for their apparent uncertainty - they're trying to tell us how hot the water is and how much we have, by using only a measuring cup.

Given the global nature of today's world, even in mild pandemic can be quite disruptive, so measuring the extent (#cases & spread) is an important planning tool.

.
 
Re: I am confused

Hi Vinny,

The definition of pandemic does not depend on how severe the symptoms are that the new flu strain causes, it only depends on whether a new flu strain is spreading among people.

I believe that we are likely in a pandemic now, and this seems likely to be confirmed by WHO shortly. However, the likely fact that we are in a pandemic does not in itself tell us much about how much mortality will result. The new strain may, or may not, cause more serious disease as it adapts to humans and possibly picks up genetic material from other flu strains. Even if higher mortality outside Mexico does not happen soon, it could happen later in the year, perhaps especially when the northern hemisphere flu season gets underway.
 
Re: I am confused

You are welcome AlaskaDenise, thanks for all your work on this site.

You were too quick for me, your message came in while I was typing mine. :)
 
Re: I am confused

thanks for all the replys everyone,it has helped me understand it a bit more. :)
 
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