Hurricane Maria past Newfoundland with little, if any, impact reported

[Pathfinder]

Tropical Storm MARIA Public Advisory

000
WTNT34 KNHC 141443
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011

...MARIA TURNS TO THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 69.4W
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.4 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL PASS
WEST OF BERMUDA ON THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA DATA BUOY 41046...LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H AND
A GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
BERMUDA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/141443.shtml?

--------------------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm MARIA Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT44 KNHC 141445
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS
ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF
EARLIER ESTIMATES. WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...
WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. ABOUT
HALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT
THIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS
BEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.
THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
TOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS
CAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF
THE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AFTER THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD
WATERS. ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED
INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 25.2N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 31.6N 68.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 36.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.5N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/141445.shtml?

-----------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Select a Future Forecast Time Below:
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 hours Loop


Click image to zoom out ? Download GIS data: 0.1 degree .shp 0.5 degree .shp
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144740.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom out ? Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on ? 3-Day track on ? 3-Day track off ? Interactive<SUP>New!</SUP>
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/144740.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Maria turns to the north - Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda

Re: Maria turns to the north - Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:55 AM ADT WEDNESDAY
14 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 PM ADT.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND INTERACT
WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT. RAIN AND WIND EXPECTED
IN ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 AM ADT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 25.0NORTH 68.0WEST.

ABOUT 870 KILOMETRES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: ABOUT 90 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTHERLY ABOUT 17 KM/HOUR.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

THE REMNANTS OF MARIA ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY. THE NATURE OF THAT INTERACTION
AND THE TIMING OF THE TROPICAL STORM WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TO PREDICT.

A. WIND.

THERE WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON FRIDAY
AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. THE DEGREE
TO WHICH MARIA OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION FACTOR IN TO THE WIND
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN - EVEN TWO DAYS AWAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA IS GREATEST FOR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.
BUT IT IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE THAT THE WIND FROM MARIA PASSES SOUTH OF
NEWFOUNDLAND.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF EASTERN CANADA ON FRIDAY FROM
THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND FRONT - EVEN IF MARIA DISSIPATES AND/OR
MOVES WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LAND AREAS. HOWEVER, IF MARIA AND ITS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FULLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. WHENEVER WE
HAVE TROPICAL STORM MOISTURE FEEDING INTO A FRONT IT IS LIKELY THAT
15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES/HOUR RAINFALL RATES WOULD OCCUR. AS FOR THE
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS COMBINED SYSTEM, THERE EXISTS A PARTICULARLY
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. 50 TO 75 MILLIMETRES IS CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WE SEE IT AT THIS POINT. WE WILL HAVE A
BETTER IDEA LATER TODAY AS WE ANALYSE THE VARIOUS DATA AND COMPUTER
MODELS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. THE DETAILS WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE LATER.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND ATLANTIC
CANADA ON FRIDAY - EITHER FROM MARIA, THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW, OR
BOTH. DETAILS WILL BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins/20110914115724.Maria.info.txt.en

</PRE>

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins/20110914121734.Maria.png.en


</PRE>




</PRE>

 

[Pathfinder]

Hurricane Maria now expected to make landfall as a hurricane Friday afternoon in Southeast Newfoundland

Hurricane Maria now expected to make landfall as a hurricane Friday afternoon in Southeast Newfoundland

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT UPDATED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:45 PM ADT THURSDAY
15 SEPTEMBER 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR:
LABRADOR
NEWFOUNDLAND
NOVA SCOTIA.

FOR HURRICANE MARIA.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3:00 AM ADT.

HURRICANE MARIA NOW EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND - MERGING WITH LARGE
NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER LABRADOR ON SATURDAY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
1. SUMMARY OF BASIC INFORMATION AT 9:00 PM ADT.

LOCATION: ABOUT 36.6 NORTH 64.2 WEST.

ABOUT 470 KILOMETRES NORTH OF BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 120 KM/HOUR.

PRESENT MOVEMENT: NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 60 KM/H.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 MB.

2. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH
TO ITS NORTH THAT WILL CONNECT TO A MUCH LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER
LABRADOR.

OUR LATEST TRACK (ON THE WWW.HURRICANES.CA WEBSITE) IS ADJUSTED
WESTWARD AND SHOWS MARIA PASSING OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER LAND. NOTE THAT
THERE WILL BE FAR-REACHING IMPACTS OF THE COMBINED WEATHER SYSTEMS
WELL AWAY FROM THE TRACK.

A. WIND.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT ATLANTIC CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW AND TROUGH NORTH OF MARIA
UNITE. THE HIGHEST WINDS DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE NOW EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AVALON PENINSULA
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON.
WIND GUSTS OF 100 KM/H ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS (120 KM/H OR HIGHER) ARE LIKELY IN THE
WATCH AREA.

THESE WIND GUSTS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND BREAK LARGE BRANCHES, RUSULTING
IN DOWNED UTILITY LINES AND POWER INTERRUPTIONS. DAMAGE TO SIGNAGE
AND BUILDING CLADDING/ROOFING MATERIAL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WHEN WINDS
GUST TO 120 KM/H OR MORE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COMBINED LOW IS BEING PREDICTED BY MANY COMPUTER
MODELS TO DELIVER HIGH WINDS OVER A BROAD AREA COVERING NEWFOUNDLAND
AND LABRADOR ON SATURDAY. STAY TUNED FOR SPECIFIC FORECASTS EARLY
FRIDAY RELATED TO THAT STORM.

B. RAINFALL.

RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY PARTS OF THE MARITIME PROVINCES
TONIGHT, MOVING INTO NEWFOUNDLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW AND THE TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTH OF MARIA.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE TROUGH WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXISTS. THIS REGION INCLUDES EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE 50 TO 80 MILLIMETRES IS EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS WITH LESSER TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NOVA SCOTIA.

NOTE THAT WHENEVER MOISTURE FROM A HURRICANE FEEDS INTO A
FRONT/TROUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 15 TO 25 MILLIMETRES
PER HOUR WOULD OCCUR. SUCH RATES COULD LEAD TO FLASH-TYPE FLOODING
IN DITCHES AND SMALL RIVERS ESPECIALLY WHERE TERRAIN IS STEEP.
LOCAL FLOODING IN PRONE AREAS IS POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY, RIVER WATER
LEVELS ARE AT OR BELOW NORMAL OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. KEEP IN
MIND HOWEVER THAT SMALLER RIVERS/CREEKS WILL RESPOND MORE QUICKLY TO
HEAVY RAIN THAN LARGER ONES.

RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR RAMEA CONNAIGRE EAST TO THE
AVALON PENINSULA THEN NORTH TO BONAVISTA AND TERRA NOVA PARK.
THESE MAY BE EXPANDED WESTWARD GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS.

C. SURGE/WAVES.

MOST COASTAL REGIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND CAN EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY AS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS INTERACT. WAVE AND SURGE EFFECTS
DIRECTLY FROM MARIA ARE NOW PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHERN AVALON
PENINSULA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES EARLY FRIDAY REGARDING THE
SPECIFICS.

THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF MARIA AND WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4
TO 7 METRES OVER THE GRAND BANKS AND WATERS NEIGHBORING THE AVALON.

SURGE AND WAVE ACTIVITY FROM THE MUCH LARGER COMBINED LOW COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF STORM SURGE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE WAVES AND STORM SURGE
OVER WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE LABRADOR COAST WITH A LESSER RISK
FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS COMBINED STORM MAY END
UP REQUIRING A HOST OF ADDITIONAL WARNINGS COVERING LABRADOR, THE
GULF OF ST LAWRENCE REGION AND THE ISLAND (NL). THE STRAIT OF BELLE
ISLE MAY SEE PARTICULARLY HIGH WINDS AND WAVES.

ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HELP EASE IMPACTS SOMEWHAT IS A RUN OF LOWER THAN
AVERAGE TIDES THIS WEEKEND.

3. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY.

GALE TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST ATLANTIC
WATERS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM EITHER MARIA ITSELF OR THE LARGE
STORM OVER LABRADOR.

VISIT WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA/HURRICANE (ALL IN LOWER CASE) FOR THE
LATEST:

- FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE TABLE.

- STRENGTH AND PREDICTED WIND RADII TABLE.

- HURRICANE TRACK INFORMATION MAP.

- TECHNICAL DISCUSSION.

PLEASE ALSO REFER TO THE PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA FOR YOUR AREA.

END/FOGARTY/HATT

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/weather/hurricane/bulletins/20110915234652.Maria.info.txt.en

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Hurricane Maria past Newfoundland with little, if any, impact reported

What about Maria?

Published on September 17, 2011

Tara Bradbury & Lillian Simmons
The Telegram

Hurricane breezes past province with little, if any, impact reported

She was expected to be nasty, but hurricane Maria came, saw and got out quickly ? leaving it less time to wreak havoc.

Maria, deemed a Category 1 hurricane, came ashore exactly when and how meteorologists had predicted, late Friday afternoon over the Avalon Peninsula, bringing heavy rain and winds up to 120 km/h.

It moved faster than expected, though, giving the storm less time to dump precipitation. As of press time, the 90 millimetres of rainfall predicted had been dropped to 50 millimetres, but the St. John?s area had only received less than 20 millimetres.

Although smaller than Hurricane Igor, which ravaged this province almost exactly one year ago causing flooding, washed-out roads and one man dead, Environment Canada meteorologists continued warning until late in the afternoon that Maria could do some similar wind damage, predicting fallen trees and downed power lines.

No power outages were reported and by suppertime, many areas ? including Placentia, expected to be one of the hardest hit ? were seeing blue skies.

More...
http://www.thetelegram.com/News/Local/2011-09-17/article-2751806/What-about-Maria/1