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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings - Season 2026-27

Commonground

Commonground

Senior Moderator

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Atlantic)​

FZNT02 KNHC 232036
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2230 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF AMERICA

SYNOPSIS VALID 1800 UTC WED SEP 23.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC THU SEP 24.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1800 UTC FRI SEP 25.

.WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 30.1N 39.2W 1011 MB AT 2100 UTC
SEP 23 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30
KT GUSTS 40 KT. WITHIN 31N37W TO 31N41W TO 29N40W TO 29N39W TO
31N37W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.9N 40.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR 29.9N 41.8W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 4 M. ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 31N40W TO 31N44W TO 30N44W TO 29N43W TO 30N40W TO 31N40W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 29.9N 42.8W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY NEAR 29.7N 43.7W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. WITHIN 31N41.5W TO
31N47.5W TO 30.5N46.5W TO 30N45W TO 30N43W TO 31N41.5W WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC 06 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N79.5W TO 31N81.5W TO 30.5N81.5W
TO 30N81W TO 30.5N80W TO 31N79.5W NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N79W TO 31N81W TO 30N82W TO 29N81W TO
29N80W TO 30N79W TO 31N79W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 2.5
TO 3.0 M IN NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N70W TO 31N80W TO
30N81W TO 30N77W TO 29N76W TO 29N72W TO 31N70W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 31N69W TO 31N70W TO 29N72W TO 27N73W TO
28N71W TO 31N69W SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.0 M.
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 31N68W TO 30N81W TO 26N80W TO 27N75W TO 26N73W
TO 31N68W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN N TO NE
SWELL.

.CARIBBEAN WITHIN 13N71W TO 13N73W TO 12N74W TO 11N72W TO 11N71W
TO 13N71W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA... NE TO E WINDS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.12 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE.
.30 HOUR FORECAST WITHIN 14N70W TO 14N73W TO 13N74W TO 11N73W TO
11N72W TO 12N68W TO 14N70W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA...
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
.36 HOUR FORECAST CONDITIONS IMPROVE. WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS
LESS THAN 2.5 M.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.
FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

 

High Seas Forecast (Tropical Northeast Pacific)​

FZPN03 KNHC 231616
HSFEP2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED SEP 23 2026

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

E PACIFIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N E OF 140W AND 03.4S TO THE
EQUATOR E OF 120W

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC WED SEP 23.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU SEP 24.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC FRI SEP 25.

.WARNINGS.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE POLO NEAR 15.4N 101.8W 927 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 23
MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT
GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER
EXCEPT 80 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE
AND SW QUADRANTS...150 NM NW QUADRANT AND 210 NM SE QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 13.5 M. ELSEWHERE....WITHIN 16N99W TO 18N102W TO 18N104W
TO 15N105W TO 12N103W TO 12N100W TO 16N99W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 15N94W TO 17N100W
TO 13N100W TO 18N104W TO 10N104W TO 10N97W TO 15N94W...INCLUDING
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M
IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 16.5N 104.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS 150 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 80 NM W SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 90 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 150
NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 17N101W
TO 19N104W TO 17N107W TO 15N107W TO 13N105W TO 13N104W TO
17N101W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 15N97W TO 20N107W
TO 19N109W TO 11N107W TO 09N103W TO 11N98W TO 15N97W WINDS 20 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE POLO NEAR 17.0N 107.7W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT GUSTS 160 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 80 NM S SEMICIRCLE. SEAS 4 M OR
GREATER WITHIN 210 NM ALL QUADRANTS WITH SEAS TO 13.0 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N105W TO 20N107W TO 17N111W TO 15N110W TO
15N106W TO 17N105W TO 19N105W...INCLUDING NEAR CABO
CORRIENTES...WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF
AREA...WITHIN 16N101W TO 22N107W TO 22N112W TO 17N115W TO 10N109W
TO 11N102W TO 16N101W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN
MIXED SWELL.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 16.0N 127.9W 989 MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 23
MOVING ENE OR 070 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT
GUSTS 80 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM NE
QUADRANT...130 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 70 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...240 NM
SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 210 NM NW QUADRANT WITH
SEAS TO 8.0 M. ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 17N124W TO 20N127W TO 20N130W
TO 16N131W TO 11N129W TO 13N124W TO 17N124W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT.
SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0 M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 19N125W TO 21N131W
TO 21N138W TO 17N140W TO 11N130W TO 14N123W TO 19N125W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.24 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 16.8N 125.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT GUSTS 90 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 130 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...240 NM
SE QUADRANT...AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 16N121W TO 19N123W TO 20N126W TO 17N129W TO
11N126W TO 13N122W TO 16N121W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER OF AREA...WITHIN 19N121W TO 23N126W TO 21N133W TO
17N135W TO 10N129W TO 12N119W TO 19N121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 3.5 M IN MIXED SWELL.
.48 HOUR FORECAST HURRICANE ODALYS NEAR 18.4N 123.3W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT GUSTS 85 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 70 NM W SEMICIRCLE...90 NM NE QUADRANT AND 100 NM SE
QUADRANT. SEAS 4 M OR GREATER WITHIN 210 NM N SEMICIRCLE...270 NM
SE QUADRANT...AND 150 NM SW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 8.5 M.
ELSEWHERE...WITHIN 19N120W TO 21N122W TO 21N124W TO 19N127W TO
13N124W TO 14N120W TO 19N120W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 3.5 TO 4.0
M. REMAINDER 0OF AREA...WITHIN 22N121W TO 24N126W TO 17N132W TO
10N126W TO 11N118W TO 16N116W TO 22N121W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 2.5 TO 4.0 M IN MIXED SWELL.

FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE
AND INTENSITY.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.REMAINDER OF AREA WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS LESS THAN 2.5 M.

CONVECTION VALID AT 1500 UTC WED SEP 23...

.HURRICANE POLO...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ALL QUADRANTS.

.HURRICANE ODALYS...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ALL QUADRANTS.

.INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N83W TO 13N95W THEN RESUMES FROM 13N132W
TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
06N TO 16N BETWEEN 87W AND 96W...AND WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
MONSOON TROUGH W OF 132W.

$$
.FORECASTER KONARIK. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
 

Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory​

BULLETIN
Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026

...ODALYS STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 127.2W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 127.2 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for
the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the
northeast then north later this week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

 

Tropical Storm Nolo Public Advisory​

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026

...TROPICAL STORM NOLO FORMS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 155.3W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Hawaii County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 155.3 West. Nolo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected today. A sharp turn to the north and
north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion
continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday
and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Nolo is forecast to become a hurricane on
Thursday and could become a major hurricane by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nolo can be found in the can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO
header WTPA42 PHFO.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area starting
as early as late Friday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Nolo will produce rainfall totals of 15 to
20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches.
This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across
Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui,
especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the
Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Nolo, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Hawaii County...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_cp2.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by Nolo are expected to reach the east and
south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward
and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

 
Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fay Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026

...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RE-DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 39.2W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fay was
located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 39.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, but
gradual weakening should occur thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.
 

Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory​

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fay Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026
900 AM GMT Thu Sep 24 2026
SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 40.5W
ABOUT 955 MI...1540 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Fay is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A generally westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so, with
gradual weakening expected thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

 

Hurricane Polo Forecast Discussion​

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

Español: Aviso Publico Discusión
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 241440
TCDEP2

Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026
900 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026

Satellite imagery shows that while Polo remains a powerful
hurricane, there have been some structural changes during the past
few hours. First, an AMSR3 overpass a few hours ago showed a new
outer eyewall was forming, indicating that the hurricane is about
to begin another eyewall replacement cycle. Second, while the eye
and the central convective features remain well defined, there is
now an outer band in the southwestern semicircle with infrared cloud
top temperatures colder than those currently seen in the inner core.
The various satellite intensity estimates have nudged downward, and
the initial intensity of 135 kt is at the upper edge of the
estimates.

Polo is turning more westward with the initial motion now 295/9 kt.
A mid-level ridge building westward from northern Mexico should
steer the hurricane generally westward for the next 36 h or so.
After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the
northeastern Pacific should prevent the ridge from building farther
west, with Polo likely to recurve northward and northeastward
around the western end of the ridge. The track guidance has come
into much better agreement on this scenario, although there are
significant differences in how fast the storm will move during the
recurvature. One on side, the GFS, HCCA, Google DeepMind, and
Florida State Super Ensemble are faster, and the official forecast
leans towards them. On the other, the UKMET and the regional
hurricane models are notably slower with their forward speed.
Overall, the new forecast track is near the center of the guidance
envelope and is similar to the previous forecast. The new track
takes the center away from the southwestern coast of Mexico today
and then has it passing over Baja California Sur in 96-120 h.

Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while
Polo undergoes this new eyewall replacement and remains in
favorable environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows
little change in strength at 12 h and some slight strengthening at
24 h to try to account for the cycle. After 24 h, a slow weakening
is expected through 96 h as Polo encounters somewhat increased
shear. The new forecast shows a sharp drop in intensity by 120 h
as Polo crosses the Baja California peninsula. The new forecast
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions
of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the
coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo
for a few more hours.

3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early
next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor
the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness
plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.8N 104.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.0N 105.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.1N 107.8W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 109.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.2N 111.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.4N 112.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 24.4N 113.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 27.0N 111.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

Tropical Storm Nolo Public Advisory​

Tropical Storm Nolo Advisory Number 16
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2026

...NOLO STRENGTHENING...
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BEGIN LATE TODAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 156.2W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM S OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Continued: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/241449.shtml
 

Hurricane Odalys Public Advisory​

Hurricane Odalys Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026

...ODALYS A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 125.5W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Odalys was located
near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 125.5 West. Odalys is moving
toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A gradual turn toward the
northeast is expected Friday followed by a turn toward the north
by the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is expected through
tonight, followed by gradual weakening on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

 
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