How widespread would fallout from a nuclear bomb be?

[alert]

Most media acts as though the only responses to the use of a nuclear weapon would be either nothing at all or global nuclear war. There are other options, many of which we probably don't even know exist. Retired general Petraus has suggested that one of the responses to such an attack would involve NATO destroying all the Russian forces in Ukraine from the air. Would that trigger a nuclear war? We don't know, and that's kind of the point.

Also, I feel like the media is missing the point that the US and Russia have both had 50 years or more to develop other weapons beyond just nukes. Would any of them be a more effective option here? Without knowing details that are impossible to know as a civilian observer, there's no way to know. A pure nuclear exchange between the US and Russia would indeed lead to a loss by both sides, but the result of other modern weapons would have an unpredictable result.

 

[Emily]

I don't think Petraeus is as crazy or destructive as he sounds there. The whole focus on 'what should we do if...' is likely misdirection propaganda. Petraeus is Chairman of a global investment company now. This is what is real in their world. Right now it looks like de-globalization and big power competition. Portfolio mixes are shifting in response, but not dramatically. There is uncertainty.

xhttps://www.kkr.com/global-perspectives/publications/the-times-they-are-a-changin
The Times They Are A-Changin’

 

[Emily]

CRUX
Oct 3, 2022
1.58M subscribers

NATO has reportedly warned its members about the mobilisation of a Russian nuclear submarine armed with a doomsday device. The submarine, which has “disappeared” from its White Sea base in the Arctic Circle, is suspected to be the K-329 Belgorod. NATO fears the submarine may be enroute the Kara Sea to test the Poseidon, as per Italian daily La Repubblica. The Poseidon and Belgorod were among a series of “invincible” weapons unveiled by Russian President Putin in 2018. Watch the video to know more. #russia #K329Belgorod #poseidon 00:00 - INTRODUCTION 01:12 - THE BELGOROD SUBMARINE 02:27 - POSEIDON– PUTIN’S DOOMSDAY WEAPON

 

[Emily]

https://www.rt.com/news/564631-macron-nukes-russia-ukraine/
3 Oct, 2022 19:04 HomeWorld News

Macron outlines stance on use of nukes against Russia

France’s interests “wouldn’t be directly affected” if there was a nuclear attack in Ukraine, President Emmanuel Macron said
rench President Emmanuel Macron has said Paris would not respond with nuclear weapons if Russia deployed nukes against Ukraine. The comments immediately drew the ire of critics, who said he had divulged too much information...
...

Macron also called on Putin to “stop the war” and come back to the negotiating table for talks with Ukraine. While Kiev has ruled out negotiating with Moscow, Macron said that “at some point” it will be “necessary.”

 

[Emily]

About 12 min in-

"And also, what do you think about the possibility of nuclear war?"
Col. MacGregor: "Nonexistent. Unless we deploy a nuclear weapon. There is no evidence of the Russians preparing to use nuclear weapons whatsoever..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JArZ6d5pyvc

 

[Emily]

https://sonar21.com/red-line-rat-li...will-american-generals-put-a-stop-to-madness/
Red Line, Rat Line Part Deux In Ukraine–Will American Generals Put A Stop To Madness?

23 October 2022 by Larry Johnson 135 Comments

There is an uptick in the panicked speculation about Ukraine using a dirty bomb in order to fabricate a pretext that would justify NATO’s intervention in Ukraine. Reminds me a lot of the previous efforts by the Brits and the Yanks to manufacture a crisis in Syria in August 2013 that would compel the United States and the Brits to send their troops to aid Islamic rebels seeking to overthrown Syrian leader Assad...

 

[Emily]

There appears to have been a strike on at least one of Russia's strategic nuclear weapon facilities. The way I understand the deterrence nuclear doctrine put into place in 2020, this may be justification in Russia's legal framework to respond with nuclear force. Their doctrine is similar to that of the US's. I think in October, Putin stated that using nuclear weapons against Ukraine was not planned and not thought to be necessary.
Of note is this US administration official being in Ukraine right before the attacks on Russia's nuclear facilities: https://web.archive.org/web/20221204...-50288565.html


https://apnews.com/4f1772d79852e63ad9338ac557e009f1

http://actual.pravo.gov.ru/text.html...01202006020040

17. The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and (or) its allies, and also in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, where the very existence of the State is threatened.

18. The decision on the use of nuclear weapons shall be taken by the President of the Russian Federation.

19. The conditions determining the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation are:

(a) the receipt of reliable information on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territory of the Russian Federation and/or its allies;

b) use by the enemy of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territory of the Russian Federation and (or) its allies;

c) the enemy's impact on critical State or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the deactivation of which would disrupt the response actions of nuclear forces;

(d) aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, where the very existence of the state is threatened.

20. 20. The President of the Russian Federation may, if necessary, inform the military and political leadership of other states and/or international organisations of the Russian Federation's readiness to use nuclear weapons or of the decision to use nuclear weapons and of the fact of their use.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

https://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/1...engels_strike/

 

[Emily]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ent-gone-mad-live-ukraine-updates/ar-AA150tL3
Putin dismisses nuclear weapons concerns, says 'we haven't gone mad': Live Ukraine updates

Story by John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz, USA TODAY
...

Putin dismissed concerns that he would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, calling them a deterrent. He has said Russia will use “all available means” to protect its territory, including the annexed areas of Ukraine.

“We haven’t gone mad," he said Wednesday. "We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are."..

 

[Emily]

https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:16084768
Land, C.E., & Oftedal, P. (1984). Cancer induction as a result of nuclear war. World Health Organization (WHO): WHO.

A major nuclear war would involve some increase in radiation exposure to the entire world population from delayed fallout, but the major exposures would occur locally from early fallout close to, and downwind of, nuclear detonations in which the fireball touched the ground. Given the preponderance of multi-megaton weapons in the armament carried by intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers, it is likely that early fallout would be by far the most important source of radiation exposure. Those surviving beyond the first few years after a nuclear exchange would be subject to an increased cancer risk as a result of their exposure to ionizing radiation. This annex represents an attempt to quantify roughly this excess cancer risk in terms of the numbers of cancer deaths and cases, and the expected years of life lost

 

[Emily]

See appendix: "In the course of a nuclear war up to one hundred 1-Mt bombs might be detonated in the upper atmosphere for the purpose of creating radio wave disturbances."

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_5
Crutzen, P.J., Birks, J.W. (2016). The Atmosphere After a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon. In: Crutzen, P., Brauch, H. (eds) Paul J. Crutzen: A Pioneer on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Change in the Anthropocene. SpringerBriefs on Pioneers in Science and Practice(), vol 50. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-27460-7_5

The Atmosphere After a Nuclear War: Twilight at Noon

Abstract

The immediate effects of a global nuclear war are so severe that any additional longterm effects might at first thought be regarded as insignificant in comparison. However, our investigation into the state of the atmosphere following a nuclear exchange suggests that other severely damaging effects to human life and the delicate ecosystems to which we belong will occur during the following weeks and months. Many of these effects have not been evaluated before.
Keywords

• Nitric Oxide
• Northern Hemisphere
• Forest Fire
• Ozone Concentration
• Ozone Depletion

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

• Max-Planck-Institut für Chemie (Otto-Hahn-Institute), Mainz, Germany
  Paul J. Crutzen
• Department of Chemistry and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmetal Sciences, Campus Box 449, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
  John W. Birks

 

[Emily]

https://www.commondreams.org/news/depleted-uranium

Russia Warns US Delivery of Depleted Uranium Arms to Ukraine Would Be Akin to Use of Nukes
Brett Wilkins
Jan 27, 2023

"We would regard it as the use of 'dirty nuclear bombs' against Russia, with all the consequences that entails," a Russian official said as the U.S. and Germany prepare to send tanks and armored vehicles capable of firing depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine.

A Russian official this week responded to the Biden administration's refusal to rule out sending depleted uranium anti-tank munitions to Ukraine by warning that deployment of such weapons—which have been linked to birth defects, miscarriages, and cancer—would be regarded by Moscow as use of "dirty nuclear bombs."

https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/depleted_uranium/index.asp

U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
Public Health
Depleted Uranium

First deployed on a large scale during the Gulf War, the U.S. military uses depleted uranium (DU) for tank armor and some bullets due to its high density, helping it to penetrate enemy armored vehicles. DU is a byproduct of the Uranium (U) enrichment process where the ratio of natural U isotopes from the earth’s crust is ‘enriched’ with higher energy U isotopes to produce U suitable for use in nuclear reactors. The U remaining is "depleted" of about 40 percent of its radioactivity, but retains the same chemical toxicity as natural uranium. If you think you were exposed to depleted uranium during your service, talk to your local VA Environmental Health Coordinator. Ask to be screened for depleted uranium exposure.
How Veterans may have been exposed

Some Gulf War, Bosnia, Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), and Operation New Dawn (OND) Veterans may have been exposed to DU when they were: on, in, or near vehicles hit with friendly fire; entering or near burning vehicles; near fires involving DU munitions; or salvaging damaged vehicles.

When a projectile made with DU penetrates a vehicle, small particles of DU can be formed and breathed in or swallowed by service members in the struck vehicle. Small DU fragments can also scatter and become embedded in muscle and soft tissue.

Health problems associated with depleted uranium

DU is a potential health hazard if it enters the body, such as through embedded fragments, contaminated wounds, and inhalation or ingestion. This is because U’s radiation, while of high energy, penetrates poorly through tissues in the body. Simply riding in a vehicle with DU weapons or DU shielding will not expose a service member to significant amounts of DU or external radiation.

The potential for health effects from internal exposure is related to the amount of DU that enters a person’s body. Inhaled DU particles are likely cleared from the lungs over several years. DU fragments may remain for many years. Older studies in U manufacturing workers show high exposures to U may especially affect the kidneys.

To date, in a group of Veterans exposed to DU in friendly fire events, there has been no health impact to the kidney noted, however, recent research shows there may be an association between elevated urine uranium in these Veterans and lower bone mineral density (BMD). The BMD results require further study to determine if they persist over time and researchers and clinicians continue to monitor the health of these Veterans.

Health concerns?

If you are concerned about depleted uranium exposure during service, talk to your health care provider or local VA Environmental Health Coordinator. Ask to be screened for depleted uranium exposure. Veterans who served in the Gulf War, Bosnia, OEF, OIF, or OND may be eligible for the Depleted Uranium Follow-up Program at the Baltimore VA Medical Center, a program to screen and monitor health problems associated with depleted uranium exposure from friendly fire incidents...

 

[jasonfoster]

https://www.who.int/news/item/27-01...es-list-for-radiation-and-nuclear-emergencies


WHO updates critical medicines list for radiological and nuclear emergencies

27 January 2023
Departmental news

Reading time: 3 min (882 words)The World Health Organization (WHO) today updated its list of medicines that should be stockpiled for radiological and nuclear emergencies, along with policy advice for their appropriate management. These stockpiles include medicines that either prevent or reduce exposure to radiation, or treat injuries once exposure has occurred.

“In radiation emergencies, people may be exposed to radiation at doses ranging from negligible to life-threatening. Governments need to make treatments available for those in need – fast,” said Dr Maria Neira, WHO Acting Assistant Director-General a.i, Healthier Populations Division. “It is essential that governments are prepared to protect the health of populations and respond immediately to emergencies. This includes having ready supplies of lifesaving medicines that will reduce risks and treat injuries from radiation.”

 

[Emily]

The Longest Illness
Effects of Nuclear War in Children

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...bstract/511381
Kappy MS. The Longest Illness: Effects of Nuclear War in Children. Am J Dis Child. 1984;138(3):293–298. doi:10.1001/archpedi.1984.02140410071021


Abstract

• The destruction of civilization that would follow a nuclear war would render any disaster ever recorded insignificant. Millions of people would perish during the first few hours, and many more would die in the months to come. Survival would exist only in the strictest sense of the word, since societal disorganization, famine, drought, darkness, and nuclear winter would envelope the earth. The comparative frailty of children and their dependence on adults would render them most susceptible to the acute effects of a nuclear holocaust. Furthermore, studies of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan bombings showed a disproportionate propensity for children to experience leukemias and other cancers years after the bombings. There were also great increases in perinatal deaths and cases of microcephaly and retardation in children exposed in utero to the bombs. In the event that there are future generations after a nuclear war, the issue of heritable genetic effects will become important. Suggestions of permanent genetic damage are emerging from the Hiroshima and Nagasaki studies. By comparison, the genetic effects of modern weaponry will be incalculable.

(AJDC 1984;138:293-298)

 

[Pathfinder]

Putin’s War Against Ukraine: The End of The Beginning

EUGENE RUMER
FEBRUARY 17, 2023
ARTICLE
...
The annexation of Crimea was popular and welcomed by an overwhelming majority of Russians. Unlike Donbas, where the fighting has continued since 2014, Crimea was never contested militarily by Ukraine following the annexation, though it was not recognized by Ukraine as part of Russia. During the eight years preceding the February 24, 2022, escalation of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Russian public had accepted the Kremlin’s slogan “Krym Nash” (“Crimea Is Ours”). In the eyes of the Russian public, the prospect of losing Crimea would lend credence to Putin’s claims that the war is being fought in defense of the homeland.

In the past twelve months, there has been a great deal of speculation about Russian red lines and what actions by Ukraine and its Western supporters might cross them. The sinking of the Moskva, the blowing up of the Crimea bridge, and strikes well inside Russian territory were all accompanied by speculation about where those Russian red lines were and what might finally trigger a massive retaliation or even prompt Putin to order nuclear strikes against Ukraine. Putin did escalate—he ordered a partial mobilization and launched a bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. But, thanks to Ukrainian resilience and ingenuity, the effects of this escalation proved to be less severe than had been feared, especially after Russian officials resorted to nuclear saber-rattling. The worst—a direct attack on a NATO country or a nuclear strike—did not happen, even though those suspected red lines had been crossed. This in turn led to arguments that Russia had no red lines and that they were self-imposed by the West, as well as speculation about why Putin had not yet ordered nuclear strikes.

Nobody knows what could prompt Putin to resort to nuclear strikes. He no doubt understands the gravity of such a step, including the prospect of a direct NATO military response. But if there is one contingency that could move him to take it, the prospect of losing Crimea is a leading candidate among various such grim scenarios. It would amount to not just a defeat, but a humiliating defeat. Far from forcing Putin to negotiate at that point—aside from whether Kyiv would be inclined to halt its offensive with a major symbolic victory within reach—the loss of Crimea or its prospect would likely prompt him to resort to nuclear strikes. Thus, a Ukrainian breakthrough in the south of the country could be as likely to trigger a dramatic escalation of the war as to end it.
...
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/02/17/putin-s-war-against-ukraine-end-of-beginning-pub-89071

-----------------------------------------------------------

Scholars, analysts say invasion has hurt Russia strategically, militarily, and 2023 could prove decisive, dangerous

BY Christina Pazzanese
Harvard Staff Writer

DATEFebruary 17, 2023
...
Mowatt-Larssen’s “greatest concern” is that at some point in the next year, Putin will decide that his army is no longer capable of taking back what he views as Russian territories.

“That is a condition where I think Vladimir Putin will use tactical nuclear weapons,” he said, and why the U.S. must start thinking now about whether Russia can be deterred and how the U.S. will respond if Russia deploys them or causes some other mass casualty disaster.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...erts-say-2023-could-prove-decisive-dangerous/

 

[Emily]

Larry Johnson's Grave Warning on Escalating Russia-USA Confrontation
David Gornoski Fan Favorites
#DavidGornoski #LarryJohnson #Ukraine
Joining David Gornoski for this episode is retired CIA analyst Larry Johnson who refutes Mike Pence's recent remarks as he breaks down Putin's speech. Why would the West want to plunder Russia? What do we make of Putin's temporary suspension of the New START treaty? For more visit https://aneighborschoice.com #DavidGornoski #LarryJohnson #Ukraine #Putin #Zelensky #START #Biden #NATO #MikePence

Transcript and video of Mr. Putin's speech here:
https://globalsouth.co/2023/02/21/mr-putins-speech-to-the-russian-parliament/

You can select captions in multiple languages on Youtube.

Watch in full: Vladimir Putin makes annual speech to Russian general assembly
The Telegraph

 

[Emily]

"What I remember distinctly is the burns..."
(About 10 min in.)

https://www.loc.gov/item/afc2001001.77612/
Personal narrative James W. Shielly Collection Seaman First Class, Navy, World War, 1939-1945 - Pacific; Nagasaki, Japan; Shanghai, China.

• Contributor: Shielly, James W. - Thompson, Dave - Palm Springs Air Museum
• Date: 1945
• Resource: Interview / Recording - Video - 00:48:46.0

 

[Emily]

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/pentagon-leak-nuclear-war-rivet-joint/

By James Bamford

April 27, 2023

​A little-known front in the battle for Ukraine is getting a lot hotter. Unnoticed by the world’s press, this shadow war has the potential to turn what so far has remained largely a regional conflict into an all-out nuclear war. On September 29, 2022, a British electronic surveillance plane assigned to NATO took off from RAF Waddington in England, flew over Europe, and headed to the Black Sea. Its mission—codenamed Rivet Joint—was to eavesdrop on military and intelligence communications taking place in Russian-controlled Crimea. The aircraft, an RC-135W (a variant of a Boeing 707), was manned by a crew of about 30, and had an exterior covered with a porcupine-like array of antennas.​..

 

[Emily]

https://nerdist.com/article/nuclear-blast-effect-simulator/
This Simulator Shows What Would Happen if a Nuke Dropped on Your City

by Lindsey Romain
Apr 11 2018 • 3:07 PM

Nuclear war is a scary if somewhat confusing scenario due to a lack of real-world applicability. To this day, there have been only two examples of nuclear weapons used in combat, and that was more than 70 years ago during World War II. Most of us don’t know what, exactly, happens when a nuclear weapon is detonated. What does that blast look like? How many lives would it claim? A new simulator from the Outrider Foundation is here to answer some of those questions.
“Experience the power of a nuclear blast in your area,” the intro page prompts. After typing in a location, the site directs you to a map showing the impact and effects of the blast...

​

 

[Emily]

17 Jun, 2023 20:54 HomeRussia & FSU

‘Using nuclear war to save the world is like using a guillotine for a headache’: Russian experts respond to call for atomic strike

A former Putin and Yeltsin aide’s call to use nuclear weapons to deter NATO has led to fierce debate
​Professor Sergey Karaganov’s “Tough-but-necessary decision” article – which claims that by using its nuclear weapons, Russia could save humanity from a global catastrophe – has provoked plenty of reaction domestically.

Some saw it only as the private opinion of a political scientist. Others pointed out that Karaganov is no stranger to high office: he is aligned with the Security Council of the Russian Federation, among other bodies...

https://www.rt.com/russia/578218-experts-respond-to-call-for-atomic-strike/

 

[Emily]

This study of a picnic area near Chicago that was left contaminated by the Manhattan Project gives an idea about how profound the background contamination was from above ground nuclear testing and the use of the weapons by the US in Japan.

Formerly utilized MED/AEC sites remedial action program. Radiological survey of site A, Palos Park Forest Preserve, Chicago. Final report
https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6869820

Full text:
https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6869820-y1102A/

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