There's a bit of numerical inconsistency that I have been wondering about for years here, and I was wondering if anyone knew the details:
By the end of the SARS outbreak, Taiwan had reported 671 probable cases with 84 deaths (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_11/en/index.html), with the last report on July 11, 2003. The last probable case was reported on June 19, 2003 (and I believe was isolated on June 15), so by that report, the outbreak had been contained.
The summary table of August 15, 2003 (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/country2003_08_15.pdf) indicates that the number of cases had been reduced to 665 (by the exclusion of at least 6 cases?), but the number of deaths had soared to 180. The footnote on the table indicates that 3 cases had been discarded. It is not clear why an additional 95 deaths had been reported, but the CFR in that table for Taiwan is roughly twice that of anywhere else in the world. The last date of onset in that table is given as June 15.
By September 26, 2003, Taiwan had discarded a whole bunch of cases (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2003_09_23/en/index.html), now reporting 346 cases with 37 deaths, and no explanation. The last date of onset remains June 15.
The April 2004 summary (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/index.html) agrees with the counts from September 2003, but now contains the footnote:
Since 11 July 2003, 325 cases have been discarded in Taiwan, China. Laboratory information was insufficient or incomplete for 135 discarded cases, of which 101 died.
My math says that the 325 is the total needed to reduce the 671 down to 346. Perhaps they had errantly counted every severe pneumonia case as SARS due to caution? But the number of deaths just doesn't rectify - 37 confirmed deaths plus 101 excluded would be 138, not 84 or 180. Could 42 of the deaths have been excluded for reasons other than insufficient samples (such as confirmed alternative diagnoses)?
And that's where this story sat for the past seven years. But now we get a thread of information comparing H1N1 to SARS (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=162077), where several sources report the death toll due to SARS in Taiwan as exactly 50. As SARS is among the four things directly reportable to the WHO under the IHR, and there has not been such a notification, one can confidently exclude that the deaths are NOT the result of additional infections. And the reports from August 2003 above indicate that only 10 patients were still in hospital (and they were all still alive in April 2004, so it is unlikely that any died of SARS), so they are not the result of deaths among already reported cases. So what is really going on here?
Every other country or region was relatively consistent with their SARS figures (even areas like Guangdong that many suspect of misdiagnosing or covering up cases), but Taiwan was all over the place. Does anyone know why?
By the end of the SARS outbreak, Taiwan had reported 671 probable cases with 84 deaths (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_07_11/en/index.html), with the last report on July 11, 2003. The last probable case was reported on June 19, 2003 (and I believe was isolated on June 15), so by that report, the outbreak had been contained.
The summary table of August 15, 2003 (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/country2003_08_15.pdf) indicates that the number of cases had been reduced to 665 (by the exclusion of at least 6 cases?), but the number of deaths had soared to 180. The footnote on the table indicates that 3 cases had been discarded. It is not clear why an additional 95 deaths had been reported, but the CFR in that table for Taiwan is roughly twice that of anywhere else in the world. The last date of onset in that table is given as June 15.
By September 26, 2003, Taiwan had discarded a whole bunch of cases (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2003_09_23/en/index.html), now reporting 346 cases with 37 deaths, and no explanation. The last date of onset remains June 15.
The April 2004 summary (http://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/table2004_04_21/en/index.html) agrees with the counts from September 2003, but now contains the footnote:
Since 11 July 2003, 325 cases have been discarded in Taiwan, China. Laboratory information was insufficient or incomplete for 135 discarded cases, of which 101 died.
My math says that the 325 is the total needed to reduce the 671 down to 346. Perhaps they had errantly counted every severe pneumonia case as SARS due to caution? But the number of deaths just doesn't rectify - 37 confirmed deaths plus 101 excluded would be 138, not 84 or 180. Could 42 of the deaths have been excluded for reasons other than insufficient samples (such as confirmed alternative diagnoses)?
And that's where this story sat for the past seven years. But now we get a thread of information comparing H1N1 to SARS (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=162077), where several sources report the death toll due to SARS in Taiwan as exactly 50. As SARS is among the four things directly reportable to the WHO under the IHR, and there has not been such a notification, one can confidently exclude that the deaths are NOT the result of additional infections. And the reports from August 2003 above indicate that only 10 patients were still in hospital (and they were all still alive in April 2004, so it is unlikely that any died of SARS), so they are not the result of deaths among already reported cases. So what is really going on here?
Every other country or region was relatively consistent with their SARS figures (even areas like Guangdong that many suspect of misdiagnosing or covering up cases), but Taiwan was all over the place. Does anyone know why?
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