Re: Homeland Secretary Napolitano predicts severe flu epidemic for fall
#8:
"1918 killed more people. So the Black Death was obviously mild and we should expect this flu pandemic to be likewise."
I don't think so.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
Black Death
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Illustration of the Black Death from the Toggenburg Bible (1411)
The Black Death was one of the deadliest pandemics in human history,
peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350.
It is widely thought to have been an outbreak of bubonic plague caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis.<sup id="cite_ref-0" class="reference">[1]</sup> Usually thought to have started in Central Asia, it had reached the Crimea by 1346 and from there, probably on merchant ships, it spread throughout the Mediterranean and Europe.
The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population, reducing the world's population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400.
This has been seen as creating a series of religious, social and economic upheavals which had profound effects on the course of European history. The plague returned at various times, resulting in a larger number of deaths, until it left Europe in the nineteenth century.
...
#8:
"1918 killed more people. So the Black Death was obviously mild and we should expect this flu pandemic to be likewise."
I don't think so.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
Black Death
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
<!-- start content -->
Illustration of the Black Death from the Toggenburg Bible (1411)
The Black Death was one of the deadliest pandemics in human history,
peaking in Europe between 1348 and 1350.
It is widely thought to have been an outbreak of bubonic plague caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis.<sup id="cite_ref-0" class="reference">[1]</sup> Usually thought to have started in Central Asia, it had reached the Crimea by 1346 and from there, probably on merchant ships, it spread throughout the Mediterranean and Europe.
The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population, reducing the world's population from an estimated 450 million to between 350 and 375 million in 1400.
This has been seen as creating a series of religious, social and economic upheavals which had profound effects on the course of European history. The plague returned at various times, resulting in a larger number of deaths, until it left Europe in the nineteenth century.
...
1918 is believed to have killed up to 100 million people at a time when we have much better estimates of population than we did during the middle ages. And 1918 did that in ~2 years, as opposed to 4 or more years for the Black Death. But, the Black Death had a mortality rate (not fatality rate) of 50%, possibly as high as 75%.