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History of Influenza: Ch. 2 Tables, Charts

mixin

Well-known member
For those who like statistics, this is an excellent chapter. I counted at least 31 tables and diagrams.

On page 33, the author enters a discussion about the panflu waves experienced on ships at sea and believes he has seen the same triple wave pattern on the ships that was seen on the ground. At sea, they ran through the phases in weeks instead of months.

He lists 36 ships and the details of their mini-pandemics. Interestingly, he focuses on the Medic from New Zealand, Boonah from South Africa and the Devon from Suez; all sailed in the fall and all had close to the same number of people aboard. The flu ran similar courses on the Medic and the Boonah but the Devon was entirely different.

Devon had 1096 passengers, 95 cases, 0 deaths and 0.0% fatality rate.
Unfortunately, no records were kept for prophylatics.

Boonah had 1095 passengers, 470 cases,18 deaths and 3.8% fatality rate
On the Boonah, all troops were passed through an inhalation chamber (zinc sulphate method) daily after leaving South Africa. Inoculations were done on December 12th after the epidemic was at its maximum.

Medic had 989 passengers, 313 cases, 22 deaths and 7.0% fatality rate
On the Medic, the use of the inhalation chamber was only employed on the when the epidemic was nearly over (on December 3rd) and troops were inoculated on 21st November, i.e., when the epidemic was at its maximum.

He notes that both ships gave vax too late to be of value and the only difference he can see was the timely use of the inhalation chamber.

92 vessels, carrying 7,966 souls, came under observation, and in no fewer than 34 there was but one case of influenza on board, evidence of the low dispersive power of the infection.

Dr. Cumpston's remarks:
" In every one of the vessels under consideration, a daily thermometer parade was held, and every person showing any rise of temperature was at once removed for observation.

In addition, any person reporting sick was immediately removed. This was most thoroughly and efficiently carried out, and it can safely be asserted that the sick were removed in every case immediately on discovery. No better test of the efficacy of immediate isolation of the infectious sick could well be devised.

That this method failed to control epidemics is clear from the vessels dealt with in this series. In spite of this method applied from the first day, " Ooma " showed 89%, of personnel infected, "Paeifique" 64% of her personnel, "Mourilyan " 46% and "Dimboola" 30 per cent."

The author:
.."it is established that when an epidemic is in course of development its wave-form cannot be modified by administrative action of the kind described."

http://influenza.sph.unimelb.edu.au/MOH_TOC.php
 
Re: History of Influenza: Ch. 2 Tables, Charts

but how did it start on the ships ?
They always had at least one infectious person
when the journey began ?
 
Re: History of Influenza: Ch. 2 Tables, Charts

The departure dates weren't listed. It would have been interesting to see when the first case occurred. Since they all left port during the waves, it could be presumed there were some infectious people on board.

The first group of ships sailed during the second wave
The second group sailed when the January 1919 wave was in progress.
No time frame was given for the coastal ships in the third group.
 
Re: History of Influenza: Ch. 2 Tables, Charts

I remember reports from earlier pandemics, where panflu broke out on
ships only after weeks, no contact.

So the people must have had the virus in them since weeks,
but no outbreak,no symptoms.
(what else ?)

I think it was in the Richard Shope article from 1957


https://www.epimodels.org/midasdocs/flu1918/Shope_1958_OCR.pdf
page3 right column, 2nd paragraph
 
Re: History of Influenza: Ch. 2 Tables, Charts

Thanks for the link. From Shope's article:
On May 2, 1782, Admiral Kempenfelt's squadron set sail and the Goliath's crew was attacked on May 29, the rest at different times. The men were rendered incapable of duty and the whole squadran had to return to port in the 2nd week of June.

Lord Howe's large fleet set sail around May 6, 1782; all appeared to be healthy. Towards the end of May, first the Rippon was affected.. then the Princess Amelia 2 days later,.. others, not until the second week of June.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I wonder if swine were on board as part of their supplies?
 
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