Heavy rain as Ernesto makes landfall in Mexico

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Tropical Depression FIVE Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/012354.shtml?



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/235842.shtml?tswind120#contents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Tropical Storm Ernesto hit parts of the Windward Islands on Friday morning, bringing rain and occasionally robust gusts as forecasters predicted it could become a hurricane in the central Caribbean Sea by the end of the weekend.

The storm?s center passed over or nearly over St. Lucia in the eastern Caribbean and was about 90 miles west of the island shortly before 11 a.m. ET, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Ernesto ? with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and faster gusts ? was moving west at about 21 mph.
...
The storm?s center could be near Jamaica late Sunday or early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center?s three-day track forecast cone. But it?s too soon to predict whether it will hit the island, with the cone showing it could travel as many as 225 miles to the south.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/0...-enters-caribbean-could-be-hurricane-in-days/

 

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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

UPDATE 1-Tropical Storm Ernesto heads into Caribbean


Aug 3 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Ernesto swept over the tiny island of St Lucia on Friday and could strengthen into a hurricane as it races westward across the Caribbean Sea, forecasters said.
...
There were no immediate reports of storm damage in St Lucia.

Tropical storm warnings were lifted for the islands of St Lucia, Dominica, Martinique and Guadeloupe late on Friday morning. Forecasters warned island residents to expect large waves and 2 to 3 inches (5 to 8 cm) of rain, with 5 inches(nearly 13 cm) in isolated areas.

Several computer forecasting models showed it moving through or near the Yucatan Channel into the southern Gulf of Mexico in the middle of next week. It was too early to know whether Ernesto could disrupt oil and gas operations clustered in the Gulf.
...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/storm-ernesto-idUSL6E8J3OCK20120803

 

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Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Re: Tropical Storm Ernesto enters Caribbean, could be hurricane in days

Tropical Storm Ernesto churns toward Jamaica

Updated 4:20 PM ET

(CBS/AP) KINGSTON, Jamaica - Tropical Storm Ernesto blew across open waters Saturday on a projected path that would skirt Jamaica and hit Mexico after dumping heavy rain on islands in the eastern Caribbean.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto was expected to roll south of Jamaica as a hurricane Sunday evening. The forecast would carry it into the coastal resorts of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday.

Long lines formed at grocery stores in the Jamaican capital of Kingston as people bought water, bread and canned goods.

"We're going to have heavy rains, so I'm stocking up," said Marco Brown, a Kingston resident in his late 50s.

The Jamaican government ordered fishermen who live in outlying cays to evacuate and head to the main island. The storm is expected to pass close to Pedro Cays on Sunday evening, according to the local Meteorological Service Office.

More...
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-33816_162-57486777/tropical-storm-ernesto-churns-toward-jamaica/

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

 

[Pathfinder]

Ernesto becomes a hurricane - Hurricane warnings in effect for east coast of Yucatan, Cozumel, Belize

Ernesto becomes a hurricane - Hurricane warnings in effect for east coast of Yucatan, Cozumel, Belize

000
WTNT35 KNHC 071753
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ERNESTO HAS BECOME A
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 85.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS INCLUDED THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...
AND WILL CROSS THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ERNESTO REACHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS
IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/071753.shtml?

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Ernesto becomes a hurricane - Hurricane warnings in effect for east coast of Yucatan, Cozumel, Belize

Re: Ernesto becomes a hurricane - Hurricane warnings in effect for east coast of Yucatan, Cozumel, Belize


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl#contents

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

 

[Pathfinder]

Re: Heavy rain as Ernesto makes landfall in Mexico

August 9, 2012 9:59 PM


Heavy rain as Ernesto makes landfall in Mexico

(AP) VERACRUZ, Mexico - Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall Thursday near the port city of Coatzacoalcos, killing two people as it moved inland and began drenching Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

Ernesto came ashore after spinning across the far southern Gulf of Mexico in waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

In neighboring Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen.

"For now, we are monitoring the situation ... people have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

More...
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57490594/heavy-rain-as-ernesto-makes-landfall-in-mexico/

 

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Re: Heavy rain as Ernesto makes landfall in Mexico

Tropical Storm ERNESTO Public Advisory

000
WTNT35 KNHC 100240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AS ERNESTO
WEAKENS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 96.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM N OF OAXACA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A SMALL AREA NEAR
CENTER OF ERNESTO OVERNIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY
EARLY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/092347.shtml?