tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Healthcare (Basel)
. 2022 Jan 12;10(1):139.
doi: 10.3390/healthcare10010139.
A Network Dynamics Model for the Transmission of COVID-19 in Diamond Princess and a Response to Reopen Large-Scale Public Facilities
Yuchen Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chunyu Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lili Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chang Qi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan Jia[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kaili She[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tingxuan Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huaiping Zhu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiujun Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: The current epidemic of COVID-19 has become the new normal. However, the novel coronavirus is constantly mutating. In public transportation or large entertainment venues, it can spread more quickly once an infected person is introduced. This study aims to discuss whether large public facilities can be opened and operated under the current epidemic situation. Methods: The dual Barabási-Albert (DBA) model was used to build a contact network. A dynamics compartmental modeling framework was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic with different interventions on the Diamond Princess. Results: The effect of isolation only was minor. Regardless of the transmission rate of the virus, joint interventions can prevent 96.95% (95% CI: 96.70-97.15%) of infections. Compared with evacuating only passengers, evacuating the crew and passengers can avoid about 11.90% (95% CI: 11.83-12.06%) of infections; Conclusions: It is feasible to restore public transportation services and reopen large-scale public facilities if monitoring and testing can be in place. Evacuating all people as soon as possible is the most effective way to contain the outbreak in large-scale public facilities.
Keywords: COVID-19; dynamics model; network; public facilities; the Diamond Princess.
. 2022 Jan 12;10(1):139.
doi: 10.3390/healthcare10010139.
A Network Dynamics Model for the Transmission of COVID-19 in Diamond Princess and a Response to Reopen Large-Scale Public Facilities
Yuchen Zhu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Ying Wang[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Chunyu Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Lili Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Chang Qi[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Yan Jia[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kaili She[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Tingxuan Liu[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Huaiping Zhu[SUP] 3 [/SUP], Xiujun Li[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 35052302
- DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10010139
Abstract
Background: The current epidemic of COVID-19 has become the new normal. However, the novel coronavirus is constantly mutating. In public transportation or large entertainment venues, it can spread more quickly once an infected person is introduced. This study aims to discuss whether large public facilities can be opened and operated under the current epidemic situation. Methods: The dual Barabási-Albert (DBA) model was used to build a contact network. A dynamics compartmental modeling framework was used to simulate the COVID-19 epidemic with different interventions on the Diamond Princess. Results: The effect of isolation only was minor. Regardless of the transmission rate of the virus, joint interventions can prevent 96.95% (95% CI: 96.70-97.15%) of infections. Compared with evacuating only passengers, evacuating the crew and passengers can avoid about 11.90% (95% CI: 11.83-12.06%) of infections; Conclusions: It is feasible to restore public transportation services and reopen large-scale public facilities if monitoring and testing can be in place. Evacuating all people as soon as possible is the most effective way to contain the outbreak in large-scale public facilities.
Keywords: COVID-19; dynamics model; network; public facilities; the Diamond Princess.