Snowy Owl
Retired in 2010, In Memoriam
Plan now for avian flu pandemic
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazet....html?id=0c4ae351-05cd-4d79-a0c2-5e0af9b573df
The Gazette Published: Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Responsible governments around the world are getting ready for the pandemic that experts are convinced will happen once the deadly form of bird flu, H5N1, mutates easily from person to person.
The question is no longer whether to prepare, but how. And it's a huge question. The number of people expected to become ill is staggering. Add to them those who will book off work to care for stricken relatives, and as much as 35 per cent of the population will be incapacitated for parts of a two-month epidemic.
In Quebec, the Health Department is planning to cope with the 2.6 million people it projects will be infected, more than half of whom will need to be seen by a medical professional. As many as 34,000 Quebecers will need to be hospitalized. An estimated 8,500 could die.
With no good idea of when the pandemic might start, Quebec wants businesses to begin their own planning. Firms must know how to cope if daycares and schools close and parents can't work.
Pharmaceutical firms, especially, need a contingency plan. While a vaccine is not possible for a pandemic's first wave - it takes three to six months to develop a vaccine - there should be one for the second wave.
Provincial health departments are anxious to avoid a repeat of the SARS epidemic in 2003, when Toronto's health-care system was overwhelmed by a panicked population.
The highly contagious SARS resulted in the deaths of about 100 people. (In comparison, every year in Quebec, for example, between 1,500 and 2,000 people die of ordinary non-avian flu.)
The Toronto experience is used as an example of how not to manage a public-health crisis. It was a relatively minor crisis magnified a thousand times by a virtually complete communications failure.
All provinces are determined that relevant information will be easily available in the expected pandemic, said Debra Dollard, director of communications with Quebec's Health Department.
The department's web site, www.pandemicquebec.ca for now has little in the way of advice, other than a pamphlet on correct handwashing.
Quebec's plans are focused on containing public anxiety and managing the outbreak, not on the virtually impossible task of staving off widespread infection. This seems sensible, given that an ill-informed public could easily overwhelm the health care network.
Individuals, businesses and government agencies need to co-ordinate their efforts before the pandemic strikes.
The prudent course is to do as the health authorities propose: Plan now.
http://www.canada.com/montrealgazet....html?id=0c4ae351-05cd-4d79-a0c2-5e0af9b573df
The Gazette Published: Wednesday, August 30, 2006
Responsible governments around the world are getting ready for the pandemic that experts are convinced will happen once the deadly form of bird flu, H5N1, mutates easily from person to person.
The question is no longer whether to prepare, but how. And it's a huge question. The number of people expected to become ill is staggering. Add to them those who will book off work to care for stricken relatives, and as much as 35 per cent of the population will be incapacitated for parts of a two-month epidemic.
In Quebec, the Health Department is planning to cope with the 2.6 million people it projects will be infected, more than half of whom will need to be seen by a medical professional. As many as 34,000 Quebecers will need to be hospitalized. An estimated 8,500 could die.
With no good idea of when the pandemic might start, Quebec wants businesses to begin their own planning. Firms must know how to cope if daycares and schools close and parents can't work.
Pharmaceutical firms, especially, need a contingency plan. While a vaccine is not possible for a pandemic's first wave - it takes three to six months to develop a vaccine - there should be one for the second wave.
Provincial health departments are anxious to avoid a repeat of the SARS epidemic in 2003, when Toronto's health-care system was overwhelmed by a panicked population.
The highly contagious SARS resulted in the deaths of about 100 people. (In comparison, every year in Quebec, for example, between 1,500 and 2,000 people die of ordinary non-avian flu.)
The Toronto experience is used as an example of how not to manage a public-health crisis. It was a relatively minor crisis magnified a thousand times by a virtually complete communications failure.
All provinces are determined that relevant information will be easily available in the expected pandemic, said Debra Dollard, director of communications with Quebec's Health Department.
The department's web site, www.pandemicquebec.ca for now has little in the way of advice, other than a pamphlet on correct handwashing.
Quebec's plans are focused on containing public anxiety and managing the outbreak, not on the virtually impossible task of staving off widespread infection. This seems sensible, given that an ill-informed public could easily overwhelm the health care network.
Individuals, businesses and government agencies need to co-ordinate their efforts before the pandemic strikes.
The prudent course is to do as the health authorities propose: Plan now.
? The Gazette (Montreal) 2006