Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

[JimO]

The number of deaths reported in California has dropped off dramatically over the past week. I hope that this means there have been fewer deaths, but I cannot tell. I routinely check about 10 county health dept. websites and have noticed that a number of them have not updated their information in more than a week. Also, LA County issues their Influenza Watch report every two weeks. The last report (Weeks 32 and 33) indicated 35 deaths in the county. However, the format in the most recent report, which was posted on their website today, is different so that total deaths are no longer reported. There is a place on their summary table indicating pediatric deaths (none this period), but no indication of total deaths.

If anyone has information that might help determine whether the number of weekly deaths have actually decreased, it would be very helpful.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

Thanks for keeping an eye out JimO. I'll be sure to let you know if I come across anything. I'd be interested in knowing why the formats for these documents keep changing.

 

[rikkitikkitavi]

Re: Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

Sorry, I don't know anything about reporting changes, but my "on the ground" sense is that flu cases in California have been steadily decreasing after our massive spike in July. I'm not a health-care professional, but I've been keeping my eyes and ears open about flu in the community and, anecdotally at least, it doesn't seem like there is all that much flu around where we live (northern California). That seems to be borne out by the latest Influenza Surveillance report: http://www.cdph.ca.gov/programs/vrdl/Documents/Influenza Update 090909.pdf. See especially Figures 2-3, Flu Admissions at Kaiser; and Figure 4, Influenza Detection at Sentinel Labs, both of which show a serious reduction in numbers over the past several weeks. All this might well mean that California has indeed seen a fall in the numbers of people hospitalized and dying from this flu in the past few weeks.

Given how widespread the flu appeared to be here in California in the summer, I had been thinking (more like hoping and praying, actually) that we might be spared the spike that attends the start of school. Schools started here a little over two weeks ago, but we're still not seeing large numbers of cases. My theory (or wishful thinking, if you will) is that quite a few people (maybe 10-20%) were already infected in the spring and summer, thus leaving less "tinder" for the fall. I hope I'm proved right, but I'm not holding my breath. The next couple of weeks should clarify things.

 

[B.C.]

Re: Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

Found these numbers in a news article found here: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=125406

As of September 15, 2009, there have been a total of 1,806 hospitalized cases and 152 deaths in California. In San Benito County, there have been eight hospitalized cases with one death.

 

[peter m]

Re: Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

http://healthyliving.freedombloggin...women-among-20-dead-of-swine-flu-in-oc/10283/

Here is latest news from Orange County(CA) Register on swine flu. They report 20 deaths including two pregnant woman.

I will throw out a wild theory on why sw flu deaths appear to have dropped off in late summer here in CA. August and early Sept temps have been averaging close to 90% even along coast , and in inland areas there have been many 100% + days. The large recent station fire in LA county has increased temps even more, creating a huge hothouse effect throughout LA basin. During August and early Sept everyone in Scal gets out and gets Vit D from sun. After labor day cases may rise as most folks return to work and school, and natural Vit d intake drops off.

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Has There Been a Change in California Reporting?

unfortunately, flu viruses can disappear and reappear without explanation. Graphs from NY posted a couple of days ago show that the ILI % dropped dramatically, and now is rising.