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(Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

when you get small loads, not enough to cause infection,
does it still provide some (short-time) immunity ?

strategy: expose yourself to many small loads, not sufficient
to cause disease.
Or expose yourself to dead,defect viruses, e.g. in rooms with UV.
Or eat viruses. Does that induce some immunity ?
__________________

gsgs,
:coffee:

Sorry, but this became realy a pure theoretical debate in a moment when we have all be pushed in an environment of young sensitive pupils roaming with the illness through the streets, apart the schools.

Could we made few logical grassroot suggestions for that situation?


It is pretty reasonable (thrown the rat/.../ studies), that it will make no more good to us if we sucked great quantities of virus splashings, but it heavily augment our PROBABILITIES to catch it if we are not the totaly immune person (and in a new pandemic, such are a minority).

So, apart the viral load in the body diatribe:

1. we must try to evade exposures.


Next, about the flu parties, which is the main point of this thread name:

2. Don't do it, wait the vaccines, don't listen the actual metro-legends, or the "schools-opens" spins.

As many specs said, and many here (Laidb. Al resumes it well also), don't make flu parties,
because you will got no good.

The virus will stay for a half of year, or maybe more, the immunity last short (looking the seasonal vacc. immunity duration).
Flu viruses changes, so the previous immunity would not be efective, not match.
This virus seems in some to remain in the body, especialy if treated antiviraly, and relapses could be possible from the same first exposition.
Having the illness weakened the body, so it ismore prone to another infection

Most important: people of all ages died from this virus. forgot the percents - for the individual who died, it means that for him the CFR percent is 100%.
No one could know in advance who could be terminated this way.

3. vaccines will be made in few months, similar to the yearly seasonal one - spare yourself if possible, and be vaccinated if at risk

4. it is not the same thing for your future life quality if you do anything you can to avoid it and got it, than when you intentionaly risk and got it - because than your decision will be the reason of your possible future damage.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

tropical, these are just opinions. There is no science to support it.
We have the phenomenon that flu waves end abruptly.
We have the phenomenon, that many people just don't get it,
see the "volunteers" in 1918.
We have the phenomenon of asymptomatic cases.

What makes a case asymptomatic ? If the science can't figure
it out, then we must do it. Make an internet page where people
report their experiences, where people fill out questionnaires that can
be evaluated by computer.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

Laidback Al makes a good point,

This is a hope rather than an assumption. Given that people generally do not develop immunity for season flu from one season to the next, it is not clear why exposure to a novel flu virus now will convey some kind of immunity to a new variant later on.

But is this correct, that people don't develop immunity from one flu season to the next?

I have seen discussions that certain age groups (those born before 1918) may have some level of immunity.

Also from personal experience, over the last 17 years I have had only 4 significant attacks of the flu, 1992, 1997 and around 2005.

As I have worked with many many people during those flu seasons, in air conditioned offices with people who were sick with seasonal flu, I would have to assume that it was a level of previous immunity/resistance conveyed from earlier infections that has kept this level so low. I have never had a flu vaccine.

Thus it still seems to me that becoming infected with the flu at the early stages may convey some immunity to future related strains.

Topical made a point also that there will be vaccines, but where is the certainty that the flu won't evolve in the 3-6 months it takes for a vaccine target to be acquired and made and distributed? Couldn't you be left in the exact same position as someone who attended a flu party?
 
Last edited:
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

tropical, these are just opinions. There is no science to support it.
We have the phenomenon that flu waves end abruptly.
We have the phenomenon, that many people just don't get it,
see the "volunteers" in 1918.
We have the phenomenon of asymptomatic cases.

What makes a case asymptomatic ? If the science can't figure
it out, then we must do it. Make an internet page where people
report their experiences, where people fill out questionnaires that can
be evaluated by computer.

Sure, I agree.

But I remember that especialy you liked the probability estimates,
so I could reasonably (even scientificaly, I posted today the Lancet aug 09 pandemic/school closueres pdf review here) said that school closures:

"cause larger reductions (around 40%) in peak attack rates. However, this reduction will be substantially undermined if children are not sufficiently isolated or if the policy is not well implemented",

and thus, the PROBABILITY are MUCH GREATHER of harming other population groups, because of such opening schools resulting in an much fast wider infection of other groups of citizens, which could be in considerable numbers maybe spared of it until the vaccine came.

Actual reports depicted many cases of middle aged, or young adults, deadly cases, so such groups will be directly more exposed to the infection prior the vaccines because of schols openings.

And the above group many times live, supply, or take some kind of care for their elderly, who (reports news) starts also to be more sensitive to the pandemic.

So, this is an man-made decision of opens the schools, even if this will augment the illnessed (chances of vanishing is small, 2-3 month country cycle everywhere is more probabe), based mainly on "lower" severity of the illness (see the Lancet report), which drive us in murky waters, because recently other infectious spec.'s state that this will considerable augment the possible insurgence of an drifted/changed virus.

P.S.
About probabilities of catching ways, descripted in a June 2009 study, posted by mixin today:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=124377
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

Laidback Al makes a good point,



But is this correct, that people don't develop immunity from one flu season to the next?

I have seen discussions that certain age groups (those born before 1918) may have some level of immunity.

Also from personal experience, over the last 17 years I have had only 4 significant attacks of the flu, 1992, 1997 and around 2005.


As I have worked with many many people during those flu seasons, in air conditioned offices with people who were sick with seasonal flu, I would have to assume that it was a level of previous immunity/resistance conveyed from earlier infections that has kept this level so low. I have never had a flu vaccine.

Thus it still seems to me that becoming infected with the flu at the early stages may convey some immunity to future related strains.

Topical made a point also that there will be vaccines, but where is the certainty that the flu won't evolve in the 3-6 months it takes for a vaccine target to be acquired and made and distributed? Couldn't you be left in the exact same position as someone who attended a flu party?

There could be no certainity for anything.

Yes it could evolve, and than we have a chance to un-willingly experiment the "parties".

But note that when you receive a vaccine, you will have only a bland reaction mainly - if safe as the seasonal one - if you can't take a seasonal, you can decide to not take this if you don't want, but others could have a free choice.

But when you catch naturaly this flu, you can have a severe, or deadly reaction also.

We can assume that the cross-immunity issue is totaly unprevedible for calculate who will have it, or not, in an novel triple-quality(pig/avian/human) strain as it is this pandemic virus.

We had also read about severe cases of 1918 survivors, and deadly cases of elderly people, so such claims of "immune" is highly variable, especialy if co-joined with the many chronic or other illnesses in most, when one became elderly.

Finaly, even you had in some years the flu, so you aren't perfectly immune, and additionaly, the healthier bodies have more strong the immune response, but if it late a few days (if not react at the very begining of the viral body infection) it could insurge with cytokine storm, so ...
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

yes, previous infection protects somehow, usually, life-long.
This should be better than protection from vaccine, which
could also be lifelong(?) - yet apparantly not much protection
from the 1976 vaccine now.

Several kinds of immunity.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

school closures should help to reduce the overall burdon.
Also to delay the peak - maybe until a vaccine is available

but they decided it's not worth it ...
the expected benefit is too small and it's mild and the
economical cost would be too big (?)
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

but they decided it's not worth it ...
the expected benefit is too small and it's mild and the
economical cost would be too big (?)

http://download.thelancet.com/flatcontentassets/H1N1-flu/prevention/prevention-18.pdf

" In the early stage of the H1N1 pandemic, the large proportion
of children among cases so far,4,5 and the large number of
case clusters in schools strongly suggest that the
reduction in the number of cases because of school
closure in this specifi c pandemic will be stronger than
would be expected from observations based on seasonal
infl uenza.14

The intervention has a high economic cost, with two
estimates
available in the published work: up to 1% of
British GDP for a 12-week school closure
(25) and 6% of
US GDP
.(26)
"

___

a "lifelong protection" to what - a higly changeable virus as flu ...

That's why all the years the vaccines must be semi-guess-changed, as you well know.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

FluFreak,

Yep, commonsense and math seems to indicate that a higher initial viral dosage would mean more severe disease. But apparently it is not that simple.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

FluFreak,

Yep, commonsense and math seems to indicate that a higher initial viral dosage would mean more severe disease. But apparently it is not that simple.

I agree that the whole process of infection, replication, immunity, and disease resolution is very complex with lots of variables. It does appear you can recover from the infection without gaining immunity and vice versa.

I also agree that the whole thing is complex and unknowable enough that THERE IS NO WAY to know the odds of the bet you are placing with a flu party experiment. We still can not say with certainty that the virus will not mutate later and come back to cause WORSE problems for those who had prior infections.
 
Re: (Harmful) Swine Flu Parties again - why NOT to do it

I was misremembering about the mouse lethal dose.
They use it to compare _different_ viruses and not the required
(initial) dose of one virus to kill 50% of mice.
killing in how many days ? I don't know exactly
------------------------------------------------
MLD50 was calculated by the method of Reed and Muench (1938) and was defined as the number of EID50 resulting in 50 % mortality.
...
containing 100 EID50 of virus per mouse. Three to six mice in each group were killed on days 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 after inoculation
-------------------------------------------------
http://vir.sgmjournals.org/cgi/content/full/86/4/1121
Reed, L. J. & Muench, H. (1938). A simple method for estimating fifty percent endpoints. Am J Hyg 27, 493?497.
http://www.virologyj.com/content/4/1/77
 
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