risk statements
risk statements
Frieden:
> Because few people spend time around live chickens, it is unlikely to develop into a full-blown pandemic.
> we have a system in place that's more prepared than ever to respond to emergencies
Cox:
> In some ways, H7N9 is more worrisome than H1N1 was
One scientist:
> the sequence raised concern about a potential global epidemic but it was impossible
> to give a precise estimate of the likelihood
Webby:
> At this stage it's still unlikely to become a pandemic
Garcia Sastre:
> Most likely, the main sources of the virus are chickens and duck farms
> At this moment it’s very unclear how much of a danger the virus poses,
> The flu is very unpredictable.
> I don’t think it’s a threat unless it starts spreading from human to human,
> which I think is unlikely. We need to know a little more about the epidemiology
> of the virus, but I really don’t think it’s a big threat.
reporter:
> and public health officials are worried it could become a worldwide pandemic
WHO:
> a pandemic is unlikely, given that there is no evidence of person-to-person transmission of the virus.
Hartl:
> The source of contagion could be contact with birds or mere proximity to them
Garrett:
> We need to know how are these people getting infected.Who are they getting it from?
> We need to know what's the denominator. How many people out there in China are
> infected right now with this virus harmlessly or with very mild illness? Third, we need
> to know what species did this come from. Did it come from birds? Did it come from dead pigs?
> Did it come from other animals of some kind? Until we have those three big questions answered,
> we have no capacity to speculate about the probability that this will become the next great pandemic.
it seems that soon these questions will be answered, Will she speculate about the probability then
or will she find another excuse ? I'm at 80% for the latter currently.
http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/
Ascel Bio:
> NCoV Presently "Bigger Concern" Than H7N9
Ascel Bio's analysis is based on official disclosures and other open source reports.
Ascel Bio is monitoring over 200 seasonal diseases in over 17 countries on behalf of our customers
since 2010
www.ascelbio.com
CDC:
as CDC scientists stepped up efforts to determine its pandemic risk.
There is no evidence that the H7N9 bird flu
Cox:
> I'd have to say that it's very similar to the level of concern for H5N1 in many respects.
> H5N1 viruses have a very wide geographic spread, while that's not known to be the case with H7N9,
> But on the other hand, , the fact that we're hearing about an additional two to maybe five cases
> per day in China sort of raises the level of concern in the opposite direction in favor of H7N9.
Derek Smith:
> If what we know about these mutations in other flu subtypes is also the case for this virus,
> then it's already part way there,That's why everybody is concerned about this.
Fouchier:
> All pandemic viruses have acquired this [mammalian cell] binding and polymerase activity,
> The H7N9 has these characteristics. So the question is, what else does it need – if anything?
Garcia-Sastre
> while it is too early to be able to conclude anything … the probabilities are very low
> that a global pandemic is looming.
> I am comforted by the lack of a surge in the numbers of people with the disease.
> It’s not that it’s increasing by ten times per week, I think right now the number of cases
> is what you would have expected from the original numbers
> Right now there are no major indications to become highly alarmed.
Oxford
> the situation in China is getting a little more worrying.
> I don’t like the sound of it. Every day I open up the reports and find out someone else has died,
> I just don’t like to see the figures going up day after day.
> So far there’s no human-to-human transmission. What’s tomorrow going to bring, what’s the
> next day going to bring? You don’t know and I don’t know,
> there is no need for anyone to start flapping at the moment.
> I don’t think we should start thinking of 1918 scenarios, definitely not
McCauley
> We’re watching very carefully the events there [in China] because we are aware although
> there’s no human-to-human transmission, these are unusual infections people have been
> getting from an avian reservoir,“China will need to identify the source and hopefully be able
> to control the cross-species transmission,We’re watching very carefully to see how it does.
> In the meantime, the national influenza centers around the world are developing their ability
> to detect this newly emerging virus” and also working on vaccines,
> Experts need to find out how vaccines would perform in case this virus becomes pandemic
Webby
> My gut feeling, at this point in time, is that this guy [H7N9] is probably closer to
> doing it, [h2h as compared to H5N1]
Cox
> the coming weeks may tell whether H7N9 is only a bird disease that occasionally spills
> over into humans, the potential seed of a dangerous global flu pandemic, or something in between.
Haertl, 2013.04.16
> It is premature to dismiss the possibility of an #H7N9 pandemic or to say the outbreak is under control.
Lipsitch,2013.04.15
> It's too soon to say how big a threat H7N9 poses because we don't know how many animals
> of which species have it, how genetically diverse it is, or what the geographic extent is.
> It looks as though it will be at least as challenging as H5N1
> If that pace keeps up or accelerates, H7N9 "could be a significant public health problem
> even if it remains an infection that people catch from animals
Farrar,2013.04.15
> I think we need to be very, very concerned about the latest developments,
> Perhaps counterintuitively, such mild cases are very worrying. That is because reduced virulence
> can often point to further genetic adaptation of the virus to infection of human beings —
> and thus greater potential to spread.
Xinhua,2013.04.16
> H7N9 under control
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statflu
http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=19256
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May,08,2013
Dr. Daniel Jernigan, deputy director of CDC's influenza division,
> people who get it [H7N9] usually get very sick,
Fauci:
> The pandemic-preparedness engines are already humming,
After all, health officials can't just kill every chicken in China.
There are lots of chickens in China. (~14B)
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June,01,2013 , Liu W, Zhu Y, Qi X, Xu K, Ge A, Ji H, Ai J, Bao C, Tang F, Zhou M. write:
> Briefly, it is highly unlikely that a pandemic of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9)
> Avirus will happen in Jiangsu Province in the near future.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23720670
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