(H5N1): a Threat to Human Health, Peiris, De Jong & Yi Guan

[Snowy Owl]

Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1): a Threat to Human Health
Clinical Microbiology Reviews, April 2007, p. 243-267, Vol. 20, No. 2
0893-8512/07/$08.00+0 doi:10.1128/CMR.00037-06
Copyright ? 2007, American Society for Microbiology.
http://cmr.asm.org/cgi/content/abstract/20/2/243

J. S. Malik Peiris,1,2* Menno D. de Jong,3 and Yi Guan1 ​

Department of Microbiology, University Pathology Building, Queen Mary Hospital, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, SAR, People's Republic of China,1 Hong Kong University?Pasteur Research Centre, Sassoon Rd., Pokfulam, Hong Kong, SAR, People's Republic of China,2 Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, 190 Ben Ham Tu, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam3
Pandemic influenza virus has its origins in avian influenza viruses.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is already panzootic in poultry, with attendant economic consequences.

It continues to cross species barriers to infect humans and other mammals, often with fatal outcomes.

Therefore, H5N1 virus has rightly received attention as a potential pandemic threat.

However, it is noted that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 did not arise from highly pathogenic influenza viruses, and the next pandemic may well arise from a low-pathogenicity virus.

The rationale for particular concern about an H5N1 pandemic is not its inevitability but its potential severity.

An H5N1 pandemic is an event of low probability but one of high human health impact and poses a predicament for public health.

Here, we review the ecology and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses, assess the pandemic risk, and address aspects of human H5N1 disease in relation to its epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and management.

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[gsgs]

Re: (H5N1): a Threat to Human Health, Peiris, De Jong & Yi Guan

J. S. Malik Peiris,1,2* Menno D. de Jong,3 and Yi Guan1

April 2007

An H5N1 pandemic is an event of low probability but one of high human health impact and poses a predicament for public health.

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In August 2006 Peiris said:
pandemic ?extremely likely? within the next 10 years.

http://www.fluwikie2.com/pmwiki.php?n=Forum.CNNInterviewsMalikPeirisIn1HoursTime

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so, if a H5N1 pandemic has low probability and other viruses are not more dangerous
now than they were before and pandemics happen only about 3 times
per century, how then can a pandemic be "extremely likely" in the next 10 years ?
He must be thinking about a reassorted pandemic, H5N1 gives segments to
H3N2 or H1N1, thus maybe transferring most of its genes and its virulence,
while changing its name and its serotype.

But then we should have some immunity already.

 

[gsgs]

Re: (H5N1): a Threat to Human Health, Peiris, De Jong & Yi Guan

thanks.

>There is no scientific way to measure the probability
> of an influenza pandemic

well, such probabilities are clearly subjective. Just as opinion polls.
Now, they are "measured" by asking people and collecting the data.
That's somehow scientific, isn't it ?
There are events where the expected subjective probability estimates
are probably very similar. This is, when all experts who are questioned
have the same level of information, usually historical experience.
This works for earthquakes,hurricanes and such where we have historical
experience and the insurance companies have a clear image of the risk,
and several insurance companies are likely to have similar estimates.
There could still be some hurricane-experts who are better informed
and might have additional information which gives them an edge ...
but this hasn't happened in history and much research had been done
on this, so it would be surprising.

It's a bit different with bird flu pandemic probability estimates.
Experts differ with their opinions and estimates.
Still we expect experts to be more qualified to give such estimates,
and that's why we listen to them and read their papers like the above.
But then the best way is to ask them for numbers of their estimates
and compare and discuss those ! This was done in the Fischhoff-study
back in 2005 from Snowy's link. But the question was badly formulated
and things have changed since 2005, so it should be redone.




see also here:
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/viewforum.php?f=10&mforum=fluwiki2

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: (H5N1): a Threat to Human Health, Peiris, De Jong & Yi Guan

I do not have much doubt that such a redux has been done.