H3n5?

[Emily]

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?p=523507

Zoonotic?

Cross-Seasonal Patterns of Avian Influenza Virus in Breeding and Wintering Migratory Birds: A Flyway Perspective

The eight subtypes identified as common to both Alaska and California were H1N1, H3N5, H3N7, H3N8, H4N6, H4N8, H8N4, and H12N5.

Wintering grounds may act as migration bottlenecks, attracting a variety of species from different breeding sites, even outside the migratory flyway. Band recoveries indicate that birds that overwinter in the CCV come from a variety of breeding grounds, including Alaska, the prairie pothole regions in northwest Canada, and northern states of the United States (Bellrose 1976). In addition, the sweeping conversion of natural habitat to agriculture in the last century has reduced the availability of wetlands across North America (Dahl and Johnson 1991), resulting in higher densities of overwintering waterfowl in fewer areas (Ankney 1996). The majority of losses have occurred in the CCV with disappearance of 90% of wetlands (Gilmer et al. 1982). This is one of the most important rice-growing regions in the United States where natural habitat is now limited to managed wetlands such as wildlife refuges or rice fields that are flooded post harvest (Elphick and Oring 1998). This concentration of overwintering sites that support over 6 million birds each winter in the CCV (Reid and Heitmeyer 1995) may facilitate intermingling of different species originating from various breeding grounds, resulting in exchange of subtypes. This is consistent with studies that have modeled AIV risk in North America and concluded that agriculture is an important predictor of outbreaks (Fuller et al. 2010). Our data suggest that the CCV may be an important mixing bowl for AIV subtypes that circulate along the Pacific Flyway, with implications for the reassortment and evolution of the virus.

CCV = California's Central Valley. Fresno is in it.

 

[JJackson]

Re: H3n5?

Emily I do not think so. A fatal case of a novel AI strain would be reportable and I can not see any related confirmation at WHO or anywhere else. The linked news report only said

Doctors suspect his death was related to H3N5, a relatively new flu strain, Susan said.

which is a quote from his widow. Also this is in a local Fresno paper whose reporter is unlikely to be a specialist science reporter.

 

[Emily]

Re: H3n5?

I agree this appears to be an error. A first time report of a novel flu wouldn't be described as a relatively new flu strain, though the only seasonal flu that is relatively new in the sense of circulating for just a few years is pH1N1, and a typo or stress-clouded memory of H3N5 is a far cry from that. It seems more likely to be an error derived from the name of this novel strain, but that would be a first for CA, wouldn't it?

The latest CDPH weekly report says no novel flu cases had been formally reported for this season so far, but I wonder if there is any chance this case had not yet been formally reported and confirmed as of Feb. 1.

www.cdph.ca.gov/HealthInfo/discond/Documents/Week 5 - FINAL Report.pdf

The weekly influenza report includes confirmed deaths formally reported to CDPH as of February 1, 2014 (Week 5). Forty-one fatalities were reported to CDPH after this date and are currently being investigated. Deaths will be included in the report for the week they are confirmed.

 

[alert]

Re: H3n5?

I commented on the original thread that some kind of reporting error is likely involved here.

Thinking further of H3N2v (which is unlikely to be involved in this case, but might have caused the reporter's confusion), I wonder now if some error involving interpreting the "v" as a Roman Numeral for 5, thus causing the errant report of H3N5.

Thus the reporter could have made two errors:

1. Mistaking seasonal H3N2 for H3N2v.

2. Interpreting the "v" as a "5".

 

[Emily]

Re: H3n5?

I commented on the original thread that some kind of reporting error is likely involved here.

Thinking further of H3N2v (which is unlikely to be involved in this case, but might have caused the reporter's confusion), I wonder now if some error involving interpreting the "v" as a Roman Numeral for 5, thus causing the errant report of H3N5.

Thus the reporter could have made two errors:

1. Mistaking seasonal H3N2 for H3N2v.

2. Interpreting the "v" as a "5".

That sounds like the best theory anyone could come up with, Alert. If a slim possibility remains that the report of an actual novel flu is still churning around in the works, I'm sure we'll hear about it soon.