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H1N1 Probablilities & Rounding Down the Numbers

High Risk

Well-known member
Long, long, long ago in a kingdom somewhere in Thorn Femamerica, a Hermit wanted to know his risk of coming face-to-face with the unknown. Waking up one morning the Hermit determined there was only about a 1 in 4500 OR 1 in 8000 chance of actually coming face to face with the dreaded Hone None, and breathed a great sigh of relief.

Feeling ever so brave, the hermit ventured out for a nice feast with a few hermits whose huts were scattered throughout the kingdom. Much to his surprise, his erudite fellow hermits updated the situation about the dreaded Hone None.

Oh My God the hermit cried, it's not a 1 in 4500 OR 1 in 8000 chance, it is actually a 1 in 10 OR 1 in 20 chance that I will come face to face with the dreaded Hone None.

Perplexed, the Great Mathematician Hermit pondered whatever could have happened to those blessed estimates of his. How could the 1 in 4500 OR 1 in 8000 chance have been so far off the bulls-eye?

Knowing all of this, the Eldest Hermit smiled, for their friends had all recovered, and lived out happy and peaceful lives in a small, small kingdom, in Tombstone Femamerica.

Thus ends this tale, albeit almost true (and perplexingly so) about the Hone None Probabilities & Rounding Down the Numbers ----- A bedtime story.

{I just wish this wasn't a true story (more or less), real math (more or less), a real kingdom (more or less), with the numbers only slightly rounded down (more or less), and.....so much for small talk with Hermits. :( }

P.S. This H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update from the Hermits was brought to you via a Carrier Pigeon.......Otherwise, it has nothing (more or less) to do with Avian Influenza. But where else could this have been posted?
 
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