H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

[Shiloh]

Source: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breaki...1868/H1N1-could-spread-to-25-of-RP-population

HEALTH EXEC SAYS
H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

By Lira Dalangin-Fernandez
INQUIRER.net
First Posted 18:33:00 06/22/2009

Filed Under: Swine Flu, Health, Diseases

MANILA, Philippines ? Unless its spread is stopped, the Influenza A(H1N1) virus could infect as many as 25 percent of the 90 million population in the country, a health official warned on Monday.

The ?projection? was based on the ?rate of attack? of the virus or how fast it could be transmitted from person-to-person, said Doctor Lyndon Lee Suy, program manager for emerging infectious diseases of the Department of Health (DoH) told a hearing at the House of Representatives.

But he maintained that this was a mere ?projection.?

?Ito ang pwedeng mangyari, but these are projections na hindi naman nangyayari [This can happen but these are projections that might not happen] but then with the way things are going, you need to adapt with other countries on what is happening,? he said.

?We don?t have a timeline for this, it may take years actually, it isn?t like after one or two months tataas na [it will rise],? he added.

Para?aque Representative Roilo Golez expressed concern on the surge of the cases in the country, citing trends in the past few weeks.

Representatives of pharmaceutical firms told lawmakers that there were no medicines available to cure the A(H1N1)virus, as it would take about six months to develop one.

The DoH has confirmed 445 cases of A(H1N1), including a 49-year-old woman who died late last week. It was not clear whether or not the woman died because of the virus.

 

[gsgs]

Re: H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

I don't know, what RP is, but I'd say :

H1N1 _could_ spread to even 31% of RP population

(it could spread to 50% of British population, as we had heard earlier)
and yeah, H5N1 could kill 50% of the world's population


let's start a thread about the meaning of "could"

 

[mixin]

Re: H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

I consider "could" to be one of those vague 50/50 words. It makes statements sound good but usually isn't followed by anything absolute. Like he continues with: But he maintained that this was a mere “projection.”

"Possible" is another one. I always want to ask: "Possible, yes; but how probable?" Or "Could... but will it?"

Of course, that's always followed with: "No one can can really say for sure."

 

[gsgs]

Re: H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

needn't be "for sure"
I keep seeing "with any certainety" instead.

"any certainety", that _could_ be x% with x in [0,100]

and yes, I'm pretty sure about that.

 

[Shiloh]

Re: H1N1 could spread to 25% of RP population

Some demographic info from the 2000 census is at
http://www.census.gov.ph/data/pressrelease/2002/pr02178tx.html

Some excerpts:

The Philippine population had a median age of 21 years, same as the median age five years ago. This meant that half of the population were below 21 years old.

More than half of the female population belonged to the reproductive age group

Out of the 38 million females in the Philippines, the total population of women in childbearing ages (15-49 years) was recorded at 19.4 million or 51.04 percent. The highest percentage of which, was in the 15 to 19 years age group (10.53 percent).