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Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1 - 2007

L

Laidback Al

Well-known member
The first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from China. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through March, 2007. Note this graph includes South Korea, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

The counts for 2007 include Nigeria and Laos. There may yet be more countries with human H5N1 cases in 2007.

Clipboard02 3 3 2007.gif
 
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Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Through January of 2007, H5N1 has infected humans in 12 countries around the world. For 11 of the 12 see: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2007_02_03/en/index.html

The 12th country is South Korea as noted in the post above.

Importantly, 7 of these 12 countries are included among the 20 most populous countries in the world. (marked in red in the the table below).

Clipboard11.gif


Worldatlas.com notes that there are currently 192 countries in the world. That means that about 6% (12) have reported human cases of H5N1 infection.

demographic information from: http://worldatlas.com/aatlas/populations/ctypopls.htm
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

A question. Is the r2 at 0.9 due to the clusters? Actually, a second question. If the clusters continue, without increased size, will the r2 increase? Thanks :)
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

R squared is a measure of correlation between the real data points and a mathematical equation defining the distribution of data points. The closer to 1.0, the better the correlation.

In simply terms, the number of the countries over the past several years infected with human H5N1 infections is starting to increase at an exponential rate defined by the equation noted on the graph.

To answer your question, the number of clusters within a country does not affect the numbers on this graph. A country is only counted once no matter how many cases or clusters are present.

I did post a graph about clusters at: http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=60819&postcount=4

The same discussion for R squared applies to the cluster graph as well. That graph is showing the exponential growth of the number of clusters over time. Data for that graph only includes how many clusters occurred in a particular year. It does not matter if the cluster has 2 individuals or 8 individuals, it is only counted once. So, for that graph changing cluster size would have no effect on the R squared value.
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Great job Al!
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

As noted in post #1, the first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:place w:st="on">Hong Kong</st1:place> in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through December 31, 2007. Note this graph includes <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">South Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

In 2007, four new countries first reported confirmed human H5N1 cases; <st1:country-region w:st="on">Lao People's Democratic Republic</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Myanmar</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region w:st="on">Nigeria</st1:country-region>, and <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region></st1:place>. Note that <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region></st1:place> is the 6th most populous country in the world (see table in Post #2). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
In the past few days, two suspected human cases of H5N1 have been reported in West Bengal in <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">India</st1:country-region></st1:place>, the second most populated country in the world. <o:p></o:p>
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=124659&postcount=45

Graph - Number of Countries With Human Cases 2007 20080116.jpg
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases of Avian Influenza A/(H5N1) Reported to WHO

12 December 2008

<table border="2" cellpadding="2" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td rowspan="2" width="25%">
Country​
​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2003​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2004​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2005​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2006​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2007​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
2008​
</td> <td colspan="2" width="25%">
Total​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> <td width="13%">
cases​
</td> <td width="12%">
deaths​
</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%"> Azerbaijan</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 8</td> <td width="12%">5</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">8</td> <td width="12%">5</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Bangladesh</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 1</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Cambodia</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">4</td> <td width="12%">4</td> <td width="13%">2</td> <td width="12%">2</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%">1</td> <td width="13%"> 1</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">8</td> <td width="12%">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">China</td> <td width="13%"> 1</td> <td width="12%">1</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">8</td> <td width="12%">5</td> <td width="13%"> 13</td> <td width="12%"> 8</td> <td width="13%"> 5</td> <td width="12%"> 3</td> <td width="13%"> 3</td> <td width="12%"> 3</td> <td width="13%"> 30</td> <td width="12%"> 20</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%"> Djibouti</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 1</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%"> Egypt</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 18</td> <td width="12%"> 10</td> <td width="13%"> 25</td> <td width="12%"> 9</td> <td width="13%"> 7</td> <td width="12%"> 3</td> <td width="13%">50</td> <td width="12%"> 22</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Indonesia </td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 20</td> <td width="12%"> 13</td> <td width="13%"> 55</td> <td width="12%"> 45</td> <td width="13%"> 42</td> <td width="12%"> 37</td> <td width="13%"> 22</td> <td width="12%"> 18</td> <td width="13%"> 139</td> <td width="12%"> 113</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Iraq</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">3</td> <td width="12%">2</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">3</td> <td width="12%">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Lao People's Democratic Republic</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">2</td> <td width="12%">2</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">2</td> <td width="12%">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Myanmar</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%">0</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%"> Nigeria</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%"> 0</td> <td width="13%"> 1</td> <td width="12%">1</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">1</td> <td width="12%"> 1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Pakistan</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 3</td> <td width="12%">1</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">3</td> <td width="12%">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Thailand</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">17</td> <td width="12%">12</td> <td width="13%">5</td> <td width="12%">2</td> <td width="13%"> 3</td> <td width="12%">3</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">25</td> <td width="12%">17</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Turkey</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">12</td> <td width="12%">4</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%">12</td> <td width="12%">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Viet Nam</td> <td width="13%">3</td> <td width="12%">3</td> <td width="13%">29</td> <td width="12%">20</td> <td width="13%">61</td> <td width="12%">19</td> <td width="13%">0</td> <td width="12%">0</td> <td width="13%"> 8</td> <td width="12%">5</td> <td width="13%"> 5</td> <td width="12%">5</td> <td width="13%">106</td> <td width="12%">52</td> </tr> <tr> <td width="25%">Total</td> <td width="13%">4</td> <td width="12%">4</td> <td width="13%">46</td> <td width="12%">32</td> <td width="13%"> 98</td> <td width="12%"> 43</td> <td width="13%"> 115</td> <td width="12%"> 79</td> <td width="13%"> 88</td> <td width="12%"> 59</td> <td width="13%"> 39</td> <td width="12%"> 29</td> <td width="13%"> 390</td> <td width="12%"> 246</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Total number of cases includes number of deaths.
WHO reports only laboratory-confirmed cases.
All dates refer to onset of illness.



http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/country/cases_table_2008_12_12/en/index.html
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Laidback Al said:
The first identified human cases of H5N1 occurred in Hong Kong in 1997. For graphing purposes those cases are included as cases from China. The following graph presents the cumulative number of countries from around the world with human cases of H5N1 since 1997 through March, 2007. Note this graph includes South Korea, where asymptomatic human cases of H5N1 were found among poultry cullers in 2003/2004.

The counts for 2007 include Nigeria and Laos. There may yet be more countries with human H5N1 cases in 2007.

View attachment 1448
Click to expand...

Does anyone know of an updated version of this graph for 2008 and where I could locate this graph? Thank you, Les
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Welcome Les.

That graph is an original by Laidback Al. We will see if he still has the template to produce an updated graph.

Thanks for participating!
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

lbeastwest said:
Does anyone know of an updated version of this graph for 2008 and where I could locate this graph? Thank you, Les
Click to expand...

Welcome to FluTrackers.

From the WHO tabled posted by Florida1 above you can see that in 2008 only one new country has reported human H5N1 infections, Bangladesh. I have updated the graph.


Edited note: January 3, 2009. The following graph includes all of 2008.

Cumulative H5N1 Country Count 20081231.jpg
 
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Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

In 2009, no new countries reported human H5N1 infections. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">Bangladesh</st1:country-region></st1:place>, in 2008, was the most recent country to report its first human cases of H5N1.

Count of H5N1 Countries by Year 2009.jpg
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Since 2008, no new countries have reported new cases of H5N1. The 109 cases reported by WHO since 2009 have all occurred in countries where human bird flu cases were previously reported.

Countries Reporting Human H5N1 Infections by Year 2011.jpg
 
Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Re: Graph - Cumulative Count of Countries with Human Cases of H5N1

Of the 15 countries that have reported cases of H5N1 during the years 2003-2011, only six countries have had cases since 2007. Of those six countries, only two reported double-digit cases in 2011 (Egypt and Indonesia) Indonesia has reported the first death of 2012, having a cumulative death rate of 83%. Egypt has a cumulative death rate of 35%.

Years 2006 and 2007 had the most countries reporting cases: 9 countries each year

While 15 countries reported cases (2003-2011), only 12 countries have had deaths due to H5N1.

The majority of cases and deaths occurred in 2006; the death rate being 69%. The death rate for years 2009, 2010 and 2011 was 44%, 50% and 55%, respectively. The cumulative death rate for years 2003-2011 is 59%.
http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/H5N1_cumulative_table_archives/en/index.html
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2012_01_11/en/index.html
 
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