google flu trends USA 2013/4

[gsgs]

1063 1024 0997 0966 0925 0941 0907 0956 0850 0869
0907 0952 0977 1085 1154 1259 1350 1363 1405 1354
1445 1460 1560 1628 1661 1708 2043 2238 3196 4625
5008 4691 4486 4022 3472 2910 2496 2228 2146

http://www.google.org/flutrends/us/data.txt

update on Mondays

2014/02/23
 5022         Honolulu, HI
 4969         Hawaii
 4474         Little Rock, AR
 4410         Scottsdale, AZ
 4202         Tulsa, OK
 4103         Oklahoma City, OK
 3994         Raleigh, NC
 3927         Plano, TX
 3831         Baton Rouge, LA
 3806         Oklahoma
 3774         Tucson, AZ
 3771         New Orleans, LA
 3593         Sacramento, CA
 3575         Arkansas
 3525         Mesa, AZ
 3493         Lubbock, TX
 3463         Berkeley, CA
 3453         Arlington, VA
 3410         Reston, VA
 3360         Reno, NV
 3339         HHS Region 6 (AR, LA, NM, OK, TX)
 3334         Texas

2014/02/16
 5871         Little Rock, AR
 5269         Arkansas
 5164         Oklahoma City, OK
 5074         Tulsa, OK
 4844         Honolulu, HI
 4839         Oklahoma
 4795         Albuquerque, NM
 4685         Scottsdale, AZ
 4554         Hawaii
 4408         Tucson, AZ
 4386         Plano, TX
 4149         Mesa, AZ
 4105         Sacramento, CA
 4076         New Mexico
 4010         Austin, TX
 3947         Baton Rouge, LA
 3851         Lubbock, TX

 3649         HHS Region 6 (AR, LA, NM, OK, TX)
 3026         HHS Region 9 (AZ, CA, HI, NV)
 2839         HHS Region 3 (DE, DC, MD, PA, VA, WV)
 2275         HHS Region 2 (NJ, NY)
 2035         HHS Region 10 (AK, ID, OR, WA)
 1888         HHS Region 4 (AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN)
 1866         HHS Region 5 (IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI)
 1678         HHS Region 1 (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
 1453         HHS Region 7 (IA, KS, MO, NE)
 1167         HHS Region 8 (CO, MT, ND, SD, UT, WY)

Bei Verwendung unserer Daten geben Sie bitte den folgenden Quellennachweis an:
"Quelle: Google Grippe-Trends (http://www.google.org/flutrends)".

-------------------------------------------------------

Vereinigte Staaten,Alabama,Alaska,Arizona,Arkansas,Kalifornien,Colorado,Connecticut,
  Delaware,District of Columbia,Florida,Georgia,Hawaii,Idaho,Illinois,Indiana,
Iowa,Kansas,Kentucky,Louisiana,Maine,Maryland,Massachusetts, Michigan,
  Minnesota,Mississippi,Missouri,Montana,Nebraska,Nevada,New Hampshire,New Jersey,
New Mexico,New York,North Carolina,North Dakota,Ohio,Oklahoma,Oregon,Pennsylvania,
  Rhode Island,South Carolina,South Dakota,Tennessee,Texas,Utah,Vermont,Virginia,
Washington,West Virginia,Wisconsin,Wyoming,1(CT,ME,MA,NH,RI,VT),2(NJ,NY),3(DE,DC,MD,PA,VA,WV),4(AL,FL,GA,KY,MS,NC,SC,TN),
  5(IL,IN,MI,MN,OH,WI),6(AR,LA,NM,OK,TX),7(IA,KS,MO,NE),8(CO,MT,ND,SD,UT,WY),9(AZ,CA,HI,NV),10(AK,ID,OR,WA),Anchorage_AK,Birmingham_AL,
Little Rock,AR,Mesa,AZ,Phoenix,AZ,Scottsdale,AZ,Tempe,AZ,Tucson,AZ,Berkeley,CA,Fresno,CA,
  Irvine,CA,Los Angeles,CA,Oakland,CA,Sacramento,CA,San Diego,CA,San Francisco,CA,San Jose,CA,Santa Clara,CA,
Sunnyvale,CA,Colorado Springs,CO,Denver,CO,Washington,DC,Gainesville,FL,Hialeah,FL,  Jacksonville,FL,Miami,FL,
  Orlando,FL,Tampa,FL,Atlanta,GA,Roswell,GA,Honolulu,HI,Des Moines,IA,Boise,ID,Chicago,IL,
Indianapolis,IN,Wichita,KS,Lexington,KY,Baton Rouge,LA,New Orleans,LA,Boston,MA,Somerville,MA,Baltimore,MD,
  Grand Rapids,MI,St Paul,MN,Kansas City,MO,Springfield,MO,St Louis,MO,Jackson,MS,Cary,NC,Charlotte,NC,
Durham,NC,Greensboro,NC,Raleigh,NC,Lincoln,NE,Omaha,NE,Newark,NJ,Albuquerque,NM,Las Vegas,NV,
  Reno,NV,Albany,NY,Buffalo,NY,New York,NY,Rochester,NY,Cincinnati,OH,Cleveland,OH,Columbus,OH,
Dayton,OH,Oklahoma City,OK,Tulsa,OK,Beaverton,OR,Eugene,OR,Portland,OR,  Philadelphia,PA,Pittsburgh,PA,
  State College,PA,Providence,RI,Columbia,SC,Greenville,SC,Knoxville,TN,Memphis,TN,Nashville,TN,Austin,TX,
Dallas,TX,Ft Worth,TX,Houston,TX,Irving,TX,Lubbock,TX,Plano,TX,San Antonio,TX,Salt Lake City,UT,
  Arlington,VA,Norfolk,VA,Reston,VA,Richmond,VA,Bellevue,WA,Seattle,WA,Spokane,WA,Madison,WI,
Milwaukee,WI

2014/02/23

 

[mixin]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

The highest worldwide flu activity Google has is "moderate".

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

... in accordance with WHO
http://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/
http://www.who.int/entity/influenza...pdates/2013_11_22_surveillance_update_199.pdf

big: http://www.who.int/influenza/survei...3_11_22_influenza_update_199_week_45_main.jpg



well, google doesn't measure West-Africa, which is maybe a bit elevated

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

WHO, ILI , week 40-47
http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/autologin/flunet_login.asp

number of countries,
week,
ILI

      2, 40 ,Widespread_Outbreak
      1, 40 ,Regional_Outbreak
      3, 40 ,Local_Outbreak
     26, 40 ,Sporadic
     29, 40 ,No_Activity
     46, 40 ,No_Report

      2, 41 ,Widespread_Outbreak
      1, 41 ,Regional_Outbreak
      2, 41 ,Local_Outbreak
     28, 41 ,Sporadic
     33, 41 ,No_Activity
     45, 41 ,No_Report

      1, 42 ,Widespread_Outbreak
      2, 42 ,Regional_Outbreak
     26, 42 ,Sporadic
     34, 42 ,No_Activity
     47, 42 ,No_Report

      1, 43 ,Widespread_Outbreak
      3, 43 ,Regional_Outbreak
      1, 43 ,Local_Outbreak
     30, 43 ,Sporadic
     27, 43 ,No_Activity
     48, 43 ,No_Report

      1, 44 ,Widespread_Outbreak
      3, 44 ,Regional_Outbreak
      1, 44 ,Local_Outbreak
     30, 44 ,Sporadic
     28, 44 ,No_Activity
     44, 44 ,No_Report

      1, 45 ,Regional_Outbreak
      2, 45 ,Local_Outbreak
     27, 45 ,Sporadic
     27, 45 ,No_Activity
     43, 45 ,No_Report

      3, 46 ,Local_Outbreak
     23, 46 ,Sporadic
     29, 46 ,No_Activity
     32, 46 ,No_Report

      2, 47 ,Local_Outbreak
     18, 47 ,Sporadic
     28, 47 ,No_Activity
     10, 47 ,No_Report

 40 Australia,Widespread_Outbreak
 41 Australia,Widespread_Outbreak
 40 Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo,Widespread_Outbreak
 41 Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo,Widespread_Outbreak
 42 Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo,Widespread_Outbreak
 43 Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo,Widespread_Outbreak
 44 Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo,Widespread_Outbreak

 42 Australia,Regional_Outbreak
 43 Australia,Regional_Outbreak
 44 Australia,Regional_Outbreak
 40 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 41 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 42 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 43 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 44 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 45 Cambodia,Regional_Outbreak
 43 El_Salvador,Regional_Outbreak
 44 El_Salvador,Regional_Outbreak

 40 Argentina,Local_Outbreak
 45 Australia,Local_Outbreak
 46 Australia,Local_Outbreak
 47 Australia,Local_Outbreak
 40 Brazil,Local_Outbreak
 41 Finland,Local_Outbreak
 44 Iran_(Islamic_Republic_of),Local_Outbreak
 46 Iran_(Islamic_Republic_of),Local_Outbreak
 47 Iran_(Islamic_Republic_of),Local_Outbreak
 43 Luxembourg,Local_Outbreak
 40 Malta,Local_Outbreak
 41 Malta,Local_Outbreak
 45 United_States_of_America,Local_Outbreak
 46 United_States_of_America,Local_Outbreak

Sporadic:

Algeria,Cote_d'Ivoire,Ghana,South_Africa,Tunisia
Brazil,Mexico
China,India,Jordan,Mongolia,Qatar,Sri_Lanka,Thailand,Uzbekistan
Denmark,France,Ireland,Norway,Russia,Spain,Sweden,Turkey,UK
Philippines



highest positives-ratio : (only countries with >5 positives)

3636 , 46 ,  8 ,  22 ,Jordan
3000 , 47 ,  9 ,  30 ,Côte_d'Ivoire_
2758 , 46 ,  8 ,  29 ,Ethiopia
2307 , 47 , 15 ,  65 ,Ghana
2264 , 46 , 12 ,  53 ,South_Africa
2179 , 47 , 17 ,  78 ,Thailand
2000 , 46 , 10 ,  50 ,Cuba
0992 , 46 , 13 , 131 ,Nicaragua
0850 , 46 , 25 , 294 ,Australia
0700 , 46 ,312 ,4457 ,United_States_of_America
0639 , 46 , 28 , 438 ,Qatar
0615 , 46 ,  8 , 130 ,Israel
0601 , 47 , 11 , 183 ,Iran_(Islamic_Republic_of)
0587 , 46 ,247 ,4207 ,China
0460 , 47 , 11 , 239 ,Australia
0233 , 46 , 10 , 429 ,Sweden
0221 , 47 , 63 ,2845 ,Canada
0202 , 46 , 12 , 594 ,Chile
0131 , 47 ,  7 , 531 ,UK
0102 , 47 , 15 ,1468 ,Russian_Federation

 

[gsgs]

Re: Louisiana 2013-14 Influenza Season Wks 44-49

Re: Louisiana 2013-14 Influenza Season Wks 44-49

top 10 weeks 40...50:

 40,2013, 41,2013, 42,2013, 43,2013, 44,2013, 45,2013, 46,2013, 47,2013, 48,2013, 49,2013, 50,2013, 51,2013, 52,2013, 01,2014,
 2911 OK, 2588 OK, 2779 LA, 2931 OK, 2912 HI, 3164 LA, 3392 LA, 3484 OK, 4799 LA, 5128 LA, 5414 LA, 9489 LA,11290 LA,10186 AR,
 2588 LA, 2090 LA, 2690 AR, 2772 LA, 2833 LA, 3025 OK, 3036 TX, 3384 LA, 3972 TX, 4694 TX, 4918 TX, 9231 TX,10654 TX, 9837 LA,
 2243 HI, 1955 TX, 2354 OK, 2424 AR, 2759 OK, 2766 TX, 2835 OK, 3372 AR, 3509 OK, 4067 OK, 4516 MS, 7354 AL, 8744 OK, 9429 TX,
 2052 TX, 1935 AR, 2206 TX, 2301 TX, 2341 MS, 2653 MS, 2742 AR, 3148 TX, 3177 AR, 3968 MS, 4178 OK, 7108 OK, 8242 AL, 9137 OK,
 2007 WV, 1841 WV, 2082 NV, 2166 HI, 2337 TX, 2572 AR, 2479 NV, 2779 MS, 3002 GA, 3594 AL, 3738 AL, 6840 MS, 7458 AR, 6597 KY,
 1947 AR, 1799 HI, 1714 HI, 2135 MS, 2296 AR, 2452 HI, 2270 NM, 2415 AL, 2814 AL, 3286 AR, 3086 GA, 6572 AR, 7208 KY, 6581 TN,
 1822 NM, 1694 NM, 1681 WV, 1999 NM, 2280 NM, 2363 WV, 2253 MS, 2394 GA, 2798 TN, 2936 GA, 3058 AR, 6256 TN, 6983 TN, 6134 AL,
 1595 VA, 1585 VA, 1672 VA, 1789 MD, 1879 WV, 2153 NM, 2003 SC, 2355 NV, 2720 MS, 2715 NV, 3020 TN, 5612 GA, 6488 MS, 5958 CA,
 1549 CA, 1556 MS, 1660 NM, 1749 VA, 1824 NV, 1998 AL, 1987 HI, 2308 SC, 2595 HI, 2665 TN, 2999 NV, 5385 KY, 6256 NM, 5952 NV,
 1516 PA, 1516 PA, 1650 PA, 1682 CA, 1777 CA, 1868 VA, 1944 WV, 2261 NM, 2549 KY, 2535 NM, 2616 SC, 5076 NV, 5962 GA, 5929 OR,

google vs. state reports :

week 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
---------------------------------------------------------
US,14,13,14,14,15,16,16,17,20,22,23
US,12,13,13,14,15,16,16,17,20,21
AL,12,12,14,14,17,19,18,24,28,35,37
AL,19,20,19,36,34,39,42,44,46,48
AR,19,19,26,24,22,25,27,33,31,32,30
AR,12,16,17,14,24,22,19,23,33,34,
GA,1129,1185,1313,1249,1387,1828,1895,2394,3002,2936,3086
HI,2243,1799,1714,2166,2912,2452,1987,2253,2595,2425,2248
LA,25,20,27,27,28,31,33,33,47,51,54
LA,19,21,22,25,26,28,26,26,35,40
MS,13,15,12,21,23,26,22,27,27,39,45
MS,32,29,36,43,45,47,53,52,62,61
NY,1084,1129,1092,1076,1063,1086,1182,1085,1351,1386,1382
OK,29,25,23,29,27,30,28,34,35,40,41
OK,24,21,22,25,25,35,34,30,25,43
TX,20,19,22,23,23,27,30,31,39,46,49
TX,37,38,42,38,39,50,58,55,70,82


here are the states that generally post early; (most others post on Fri)
their stats should be the closest to google's stats

Arkansas (Tue) Links to Google
Missouri (Tues afternoon)
Alaska (Wed afternoon)
Maine (Wed @ noon)
S.Carolina (Wed. late)
Utah (Wed.late)
N. Dakota (thurs noon)
Nevada (thurs noon
Oklahoma(Thurs 10a.m.

Here are the ones that post the on the following Mon or Tues:
Delaware (Tuesday)
Illinois (Tues
Louisana (Tues
Minnesota (Tue
Montana (Tue
New Mexico (Tue

Ones that post on Fri but are a whole week behind:
Alabama
Delaware
Hawaii
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Rhode Island

(hattip mixin)


flunearyou.org,
2013/12/22,ILI=160=2.5%,some symptoms=1150=17.9%,no symptoms=5268=82.1%

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

updating ....

we see some peaks now
But careful, this is the week past Christmas holidays,
where we sometimes have a decline that is only temporary

however, Texas is up since long, they are ripe for the peak

------------------------------------------------

comparing CDC-ILI with google-forecasts :

US,12,13,13,14,15,16,16,17,21,22,24,29,43
14,13,14,14,15,16,16,17,20,22,31,46,50,49
AL,19,20,19,29,28,35,37,42,43,64,67,78,71
12,12,14,14,17,19,18,24,28,35,66,82,66,61
AR,12,16,17,14,24,22,19,23,29,28,20,42,92
19,19,26,24,22,25,27,33,31,32,59,72,99,01
CA,08,08,10,08,11,21,12,21,13,21,25,26,34
15,15,16,16,17,18,16,16,18,21,29,43,57,59
FL,17,13,14,16,14,19,15,18,23,19,18,25,32
14,14,14,15,17,16,17,17,18,19,26,31,32,32
IL,09,10,10,12,12,12,13,13,16,17,21,23,42
11,10,12,10,12,11,11,11,15,18,26,40,45,43
IN,10,09,10,11,10,10,11,10,16,13,17,35,61
11,10,10,10,09,08,13,14,15,15,21,41,54,48
KS,03,06,06,09,10,11,07,13,12,13,17,27,46
06,05,05,09,07,08,09,07,11,15,26,43,37,36
LA,19,21,22,26,27,30,29,28,38,40,48,43,84
25,20,27,27,28,31,33,33,47,51,81,09,02,98
MA,06,07,08,07,07,08,08,07,10,08,12,14,20
05,06,06,05,07,07,06,06,07,07,09,15,22,22
ME,08,05,08,06,03,03,07,04,13,08,10,12,13
06,05,04,04,05,06,06,06,05,08,10,16,20,19
MI,10,11,12,10,11,11,12,12,12,12,09,19,28
11,09,10,10,12,12,11,13,17,16,29,43,46,45
MN,02,07,05,12,14,10,05,03,11,12,12,19,58
08,10,13,12,11,12,11,14,15,17,24,41,42,43
MO,10,17,13,18,14,16,17,18,20,26,29,53,72
08,07,08,07,11,07,11,11,12,16,27,47,57,54
MS,32,29,36,43,45,47,53,52,61,60,66,77,79
13,15,12,21,23,26,22,27,27,39,62,66,62,59
NC,04,09,07,07,08,09,10,10,16,13,16,25,57
07,09,10,10,11,12,13,14,18,20,32,49,49,50
ND,00,01,01,04,07,03,03,02,07,01,02,17,54
05,05,05,05,05,05,06,08,08,09,11,36,32,30
NJ,16,16,19,15,18,16,16,18,23,21,13,20,18
09,08,10,09,10,10,10,11,12,12,14,27,33,32
NV,06,07,06,06,07,09,09,10,11,12,16,35,54
14,13,20,15,18,17,24,23,24,27,49,57,57,59
NY,07,06,06,08,08,09,08,10,11,10,10,17,26
10,11,10,10,10,10,11,10,13,13,19,30,34,34
OH,06,07,05,06,06,07,07,07,09,07,05,05,13
09,09,09,09,11,11,12,10,13,13,22,30,35,35
OK,24,21,22,25,25,35,34,30,25,43,41,47,74
29,25,23,29,27,30,28,34,35,40,63,86,94,91
TN,03,02,03,02,03,04,05,08,11,18,15,26,38
14,11,11,14,12,14,19,19,27,26,52,71,66,65
TX,37,38,42,38,40,46,52,58,70,81,90,88,98
20,19,22,23,23,27,30,31,39,46,82,04,97,94
WV,04,05,04,07,05,07,09,07,11,08,08,10,24
20,18,16,16,18,23,19,17,17,21,28,46,48,49
R1,06,06,07,08,09,10,09,07,08,08,09,11,12
05,05,05,05,06,06,06,06,07,07,08,15,19,19
R2,16,16,19,16,20,17,15,18,20,20,14,19,26
10,10,10,10,10,10,11,10,13,13,18,29,33,33
R3,09,11,11,11,11,12,13,12,15,16,16,28,37
15,15,16,17,16,17,17,16,20,19,24,33,38,39
R4,09,10,10,12,12,15,15,17,22,23,24,31,44
12,12,13,13,14,16,17,18,23,24,40,51,49,47
R5,08,10,09,10,11,11,11,11,14,13,15,19,37
10,10,11,10,11,11,11,12,14,16,24,37,43,42
R6,21,22,24,23,25,29,33,37,44,52,58,70,92
21,20,23,24,24,27,30,31,38,46,77,00,95,92
R7,06,08,07,09,07,09,08,10,10,12,15,32,47
08,06,07,08,09,09,09,08,11,14,23,40,46,45
R8,06,07,06,08,07,07,06,09,09,15,15,20,39
07,06,06,06,06,07,07,09,10,13,21,31,34,33
R9,14,16,16,16,18,20,18,18,21,18,23,22,32
15,14,16,16,17,18,16,17,18,21,29,42,55,57
R:,04,04,05,05,05,03,05,05,06,06,08,27,37
11,11,11,11,11,11,11,11,15,18,26,44,52,52

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

what's up, google ? no updates ?

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

google resumes updates, see above
------------------------------------------------
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22952719
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3431370/

Comparison: Flu prescription sales data from a retail pharmacy in the US with
Google Flu trends and US ILINet (CDC) data as flu activity indicator.

prescription sales data from a large drug retailing pharmacy chain in the United States
with Google Flu trends surveillance system data as a flu activity indicator. It was found
that the two were highly correlated. The correlation coefficient (Pearson 'r') for five years'
aggregate data (2007-2011) was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.94). The correlation coefficients for
each of the five years between 2007 and 2011 were 0.85, 0.92, 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 respective


gsgs: but is there a chance that they will make the sales data available ?


Citation: Patwardhan A, Bilkovski R (2012) Comparison: Flu Prescription Sales Data from a
Retail Pharmacy in the US with Google Flu Trends and US ILINet (CDC)
Data as Flu Activity Indicator. PLoS ONE 7(8): e43611. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043611
Editor: Edward Goldstein, Harvard School of Public Health, United States of America
Received June 14, 2012; Accepted July 26, 2012; Published August 30, 2012
Copyright: ? 2012 Patwardhan, Bilkovski. This is an open-access article distributed
under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author
and source are credited.
Funding: This research was funded by Walgreen Co. The funders had no role in study design,
data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
Competing Interests: Both the authors are full time employees of Walgreen Co.
This does not alter the authors? adherence to all the PLoS ONE policies on
sharing data and materials.
* E-mail: Avinash.Patwardhan@Walgreens.com

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walgreens
The Walgreen Company (Walgreens) is the largest[3] drug retailing chain in the United States.
As of January 31, 2014, the company operated 8,678 stores in all 50 states, the District of Columbia,
Puerto Rico, and Guam.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

hat tip Helen Branswell

Why Google Flu Trends Can't Track the Flu (Yet)
The vaunted big data project falls victim to periodic tweaks in Google's own search algorithms
By Joseph Stromberg
SMITHSONIANMAG.COM
2 HOURS AGO

In 2008, Google announced an intriguing new service called Google Flu Trends. Engineers at the company had observed that certain search queries (such as those including the words "fever" or cough") seemed to spike every flu season. Their idea was to use the frequency of these searches to calculate nationwide flu rates faster than could be done with conventional data (which generally takes a few weeks to collect and analyze), letting people know when to take extra precautions to avoid getting the virus.

Media outlets (this reporter included) rushed to congratulate Google on such an insightful, innovative and disruptive use of big data. The only problem? Google Flu Trends hasn't performed very well.


more..

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/scien...u-trends-cant-track-flu-yet-180950076/?no-ist

 

[gsgs]

Re: google flu trends USA 2013/4

> between August 2011 and September 2013.

so this is old hat. We talked about that last season.
This season seems to be better,
not just USA. I'll probably post an analysis later.

> higher than it actually was for 100 out of 108 weeks

if it is constantly higher it could still be useful to predict
the peaks, which I think is the main issue.
At the peak we are roughly 50% through it, so just redouble
for the total estimate.

> Lazer et.al argue that tracking the flu from big data is a
> particularly difficult problem.

but we have computers .... what is just only difficult these days
becomes easy once the algorithm stands

> Over time, Google engineers manually removed many terms that
> correlate with flu searches but have nothing to do with flu,

so it can be improved

> If properly updated to take into account tweaks to Google's
> own algorithm, and rigorously analyzed to remove purely
> seasonal factors, it could be useful in documenting nationwide
> flu rates—especially when combined with conventional data.

do it !

> Their hybrid matched the actual and current flu data much more
> closely than Google Flu Trends alone, and presented a way of
> getting this information much faster than
> waiting two weeks for the conventional data.
> "Our analysis of Google Flu demonstrates that the best results
> come from combining information and techniques from both sources,"
> Ryan Kennedy

there it is.


> between August 2011 and September 2013.

so this is old hat. We talked about that last season. This season seems to be better,
not just USA. I'll probably post an analysis later.

> higher than it actually was for 100 out of 108 weeks

if it is constantly higher it could still be useful to predict the peaks, which I think is the main
issue. At the peak we are roughly 50% through it, so just redouble for the total estimate.

> Lazer et.al argue that tracking the flu from big data is a particularly difficult problem.

but we have computers .... what is just only difficult these days becomes easy
once the algorithm stands

> Over time, Google engineers manually removed many terms that correlate with flu searches
> but have nothing to do with flu,

so it can be improved

> If properly updated to take into account tweaks to Google's own algorithm, and rigorously
> analyzed to remove purely seasonal factors, it could be useful in documenting nationwide
> flu rates—especially when combined with conventional data.

do it !

> Their hybrid matched the actual and current flu data much more closely than Google
> Flu Trends alone, and presented a way of getting this information much faster than
> waiting two weeks for the conventional data.
> "Our analysis of Google Flu demonstrates that the best results come from
> combining information and techniques from both sources," Ryan Kennedy

there it is.


I'd assume that it's also useful to consider weather and timing
and prevalent strains and holiday schedules.
--> Further room for improvement

-----------------------
google missed the 2nd, smaller peak entirely
(week 6 in r1,r2 ; week 4 in r3,r4,r5,r9 ; week 5 in r6,r7)
see: goocdc01.gif

 

[gsgs]

--ahh, the 2014/15 thread is here:
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...c-2009-aj/172757-google-flu-trends-usa-2014-5




1.) USA
2.) States
3.) 10 regions
4.) Cities sorted by States(as above) then alphabetically