Re: Goju Takes Action
here is my presentation. - note - the list from the conference did step on some toes. While the info ?may? have been new, it is within ?certain? people?s juristictions. If you choose to follow in my footsteps, Please tread lightly. There are very experienced people running the towns and you need them as allies. No arguing allowed. If you need proof - go get it and bring it to them. Pleas emodify as you need for your town.
Here are my Handout docs
http://www.mipodcast.com/H5N1/Town_Meeting/
Safe America Conference NYC on Sept. 6, 2006.
Safe America is a 12 year old company encouraging people to prepare for emergencies. They have partnered with many large corps now for the prep for BF
The conference was Business focused
It was held in NBC-TV?s Studio where they shoot SNL
They are holding similar events in Major and secondary cities
31 speakers all together
Expect disruptions of
Telecommunications, Electricity & Water
Expect - 30?50% worker outages
maintenance and part supply was biggest long term problem
Pre-position supplies before its too late or supplies run out.
Must purchase N-95 masks, gloves, biohazard suits for emergency workers and first responders
Teach people how to use those supplies ? used the example of N-95 mask usage for a bearded workers ? not for public ? for emergency workers
How could Biz lower their staffing needs to 50% - Must ? cross train workers
Big empasis on not planning but DOING ? moving to ACTION NOW and tweek the plan as you go
JIT delivery system
Plan for leadership continuity
All must get seasonal flu and Pneumonia vaccinations.
How do u pay for voluntary or forced quarantine of workers
many other topics covered.
I spoke with a rep from HESS oil. She said the wells, refineries and shipping all were 24/7 with multiple levels of backup both in parts and manpower ? they are confident they can ride it out BUT? the problem they are having is further down the line at the regional and local level. They can?t guarentee that the oil will reach the pumps and if it did, that the pumps would work or people would be there to man them. They are VERY aware that if they screw up, Water, Food, and Power, are all in big trouble. They expect all local gas to be commandeered by Military & Emergency services, police fire, medical, etc
Nabarro Speaks - Head of UN Influenza fight
?H5N1 is the nastiest virus ever seen?
Showed an interactive map of H5N1 spread. Emphasized how fast it is spreading this year
Talked about cats, dogs infected and limited Inefficient H2H in N Sumatra
Probably many more infections and deaths than reported
There is NO news from China
Africa is a BIG concern
Indonesia is a mess & not cooperating Going to Indo next week to see what happened w/ tami blanket ? he didn?t know results yet of that & roadblocks
There will be a pandemic
Once it goes efficient H2H ? BOOM it will be too late to prep
Levels 4, 5 & 6 could happen very fast
The may be Possible threats to Rule of law, security, continuance of governments
Now we must Must engage the public
Key people around the world ARE supplied to SIP Right now we have ?God given time? to prepare
1 - 1997 - 18 people in Hong Kong infected, 6 die.
2 - 2006 - multiple clusters in Indonesia with limited human to human spread and what talking about is the human2human form of this virus, with a CFR rate at present of about 80%. To date ? 247 confirmed cases, 144 deaths
Hand Out - I will show them the human cases chart which shows an increase of cases from 2005 - 2006
3 - I have read the US, NYS, NYC and CT Pandemic Plans- they are based on a 2.5% Case Fatality Rate derived from the historical Spanish Flu of 1918 They are based on the assumption that we will have an effective vaccine - there will be no vaccine for at least 6 months we could be well into the 2nd wave by then. All of the plans discuss the possible isolation and quarantine of infected people and their families.
Many experts have said that when H5H1 becomes Pandemic, the CFR will come down from the 50% to 80% range. The CFR of H5N1 may come down? but it has a long way to go to reach 2.5%.
Hand Out - I will show them the age chart
7- H5N1 is killing the young - 70% of all fatalities were 25 years old or less. More than half are below 20 years old.
I have read the Costa School pandemic plan - it states that when 10% of the kids don?t show up to school they alert the health dept.
In Wilton there are approx. 4000 school kids in school - if 10% are home sick, and CFR is 10%, then we will have 40 deaths before the health dept is notified. Even if the CFR drops to 1% it will mean 4 students will die before action is taken. Even one of our children?s death is a burden to great to bear.
Take out my kids pics
These are the 3 reasons we are here today.
So what can we do?
Hand Out ? Phili vs. St Louis Graph
In 1918 Philidelphia had a horrendous death rate - in 2 weeks 14,000 people died.
In St Louis there were very few deaths. The difference was in how the city gov handled things. Where Philadelphia held a big parade in support of the war and did not enforce social distancing, St Louis acted quickly and closed schools, churches? etc.
Hand Out ? Pandemic Wave and intervention Chart
Early intervention before or when the first cases appear,can spread out infections over time, giving our health care facilities time to operate effectively and lower fatalities. As they did in St. Louis in 1918.
So what can we do?
Mr. Levitt Secretary of Health & Human Services has said we, the local communities, are on our own. We all know that now.
There are only 2 things we can do to reduce illness and death. Prepare our town as best we can and help our residents learn how to prepare for SIP for upwards of 3 months, long enough for the first wave to pass our community and hopefully give the government enough time to regroup and get food, water and power distribution systems running again.
Anything short of that is handing our residents a death sentence.
Hand Out - I will then give them the Gunnison CO report on what they had no infections and no deaths
Our Mission
How do we educate our residents on preparing their homes and families for SIP? Do not create a panic Do not scare people We recommend 4 weeks of supplies minimum. Realistic senario is that the local flu wave will last 6?8 weeks Each family chooses what they can do after given the facts and info on how to do it. Many families decide to have 3 months or more much like they have insurance on their house. This is what is recommended for a flu pandemic. Make it a family project
Media:
Local paper - story and weekly prep column
Radio - local PSAs
Local TV coverage
Town Prep Day Event:
Have a fun day of ?preparation fitness? ? how well can you protect your family?
Show what 1 week of water, food, toilet paper and other supplies for one person looks like for the 2 week prep, bag of rice, a bag of beans, and a bottle of oil for a longer duration event.
Have info flyers available with general guidelines for what you need to SIP
Have entertainment ? High School and local talent
Guest Speakers and local Celebs
Involve: Library
Churchs
Social Clubs
Professionals
Vets
High School & local talent
Local Business:
Food markets
Hardware stores
auto service center
