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Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2006, 2007, 2008

Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2007, 2008

Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2007, 2008

The 2007 Global Risk report is released.

The estimate for financial losses due to a pandemic are approximately 1 trillion dollars and the loss of life is approximately 1,000,000. The estimated likelihood is in the 1-5% category.

However, out of the 23 "core" global risks identified, a pandemic risk is one of four global risks that are especially addressed with advice called "Focus on Mitigation". Along with pandemic on this short list are: international terrorism, climate change, and oil price shock/supply interruption.

Among the recommendations are:

1) Improve government ability to provide clear, timely, and effective information - including first responder education.

2) Increase efforts to identify critical "choke points" in supply value chain.

3) Invest in surge capacity of healthcare services.

4) Encourage vaccine development and capacity.

5) Encourage citizens to establish and maintain "basic supplies" at home. FluTrackers policy for home preparations is a 90 day supply of essentials. http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=46723&postcount=25

6) Establish work-at-home procedures.

7) Explore feasibility of alternate financing options to avoid systemic failure.

http://www.weforum.org/pdf/CSI/Global_Risks_2007.pdf
 
Re: Global Risks 2007 - World Economic Forum

Re: Global Risks 2007 - World Economic Forum

Global Risks 2007 Report highlights new ways to address global risks

London, 10 January 2007

The Global Risks 2007 report released today highlights a growing disconnect between the power of global risks to cause major systemic disruption, and our ability to mitigate them. The annual Global Risks report ? published by the World Economic Forum in cooperation with Citigroup, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Swiss Re and the Wharton School Risk Center ? suggests that many of the 23 core global risks explored in the report have worsened over the last 12 months, despite growing awareness of their potential impacts. In addition to specific risk mitigation measures, institutional innovations may be needed to create effective responses to a complex risk landscape.

The report suggests two such innovations ? the appointment of Country Risk Officers and the creation of flexible "coalitions of the willing" around specific global risk issues, providing crucial momentum to mitigation efforts. The first would provide a focal point in government for mitigating global risks across departments, learning from private-sector approaches and escaping a ?silo-based? approach. The second would allow mitigation strategies to emerge from dynamic interplay between governments and business, achieving a balance between inclusiveness and decisiveness.
In addition, the report recommends a number of key needs for addressing specific global risks, including:
? Linking energy security with considerations on climate change
? Urgently beginning work on a successor to the Kyoto agreement with three central principles:
? Involvement of the United States and major developing countries (particularly China and India);
? Differential responsibilities for future emissions? reduction dependent upon past emissions and stage of economic development; and,
? Common overall responsibility for climate change

? Renewing terrorism insurance schemes scheduled to sunset in 2007 in some form; improve framework for public-private arrangements in other countries, and
? In order to prepare for a pandemic, governments should increase research into the identification of critical choke-points in the supply/value chain where skill sets are rare, interdependencies are greatest and the risk of triggering systemic failure is highest.


Jacques Aigrain, Chief Executive Officer of Swiss Re said, "Risks are often still viewed and dealt with in isolation. However, in today?s world global risks are tightly interwoven. To address our contemporary risk landscape, governments and enterprises need to take a holistic approach to overcome silo-thinking and acting. We need to prioritise risks effectively, improve preparedness and strengthen public-private partnerships to mitigate risks and to finance economic losses. Finally, we propose to coordinate global risk mitigation efforts by creating the function of Country Risk Officers at governmental level who regularly meet on an international level."

Mike Cherkasky, President and Chief Executive Officer of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), said: "While risk mitigation is set to be a key theme at this year?s meeting in Davos there is continued evidence of a disconnect between risk and mitigation. The focus of government and corporations must not only be on reacting to events but on utilizing effective enterprise risk management to set priorities, increase business focus, allocate resources and maximize efficiency. Catastrophic natural disasters in recent years have demonstrated that our ability to confront emerging risks depends more on the choices we make before a disruption than the actions we take during a crisis. Only a systematic planning approach will ensure that countries and companies are prepared for the risk environment we presently face."
The topics identified in the report will be at the core of the agenda for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum taking place later this month in Davos, Switzerland.

Global Risks 2007 was compiled by the Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum, drawing insights from leading domain experts engaged throughout 2006 and from partnership with Citigroup, Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC), Swiss Re and the Wharton School Risk Center. In 2007, the Global Risk Network will build on this report in extending its global work.

Thierry Malleret, Director, Head of Global Challenges Team of the World Economic Forum, said: "This report makes clear that there exists a fundamental disconnect between risk and mitigation. While opinion suggests that levels of risk are rising in almost all of the 23 risks on which the Global Risk Network has been focused over the last year, the mechanisms in place to manage and mitigate these risks are inadequate; world leaders must act now. While the global economy has been expanding faster than at any time in history, it remains vulnerable."

http://www.weforum.org/en/media/Latest%20Press%20Releases/Global_Risks_2007_report
 
Re: Global Risks 2007 - World Economic Forum

Re: Global Risks 2007 - World Economic Forum

The estimate for financial losses due to a pandemic are approximately 1 trillion dollars and the loss of life is approximately 1,000,000. The estimated likelihood is in the 1-5% category.

---------------------------

1-5% for any pandemic in 2007 , no matter how severe ?
1M dead and $1e12 damage ?
that would mean $1e15 damage in a pandemic with 1e9 deaths ?
or is it only USA

expectation value ?


I haven't yet printed+read it. Too many other things to read...
 
Re: Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2006, 2007, 2008

by far the two largest considered risks by weforum :



$600billion (!!) expectation value of damage due to

? House and other asset prices collapse in the US, United Kingdom and continental Europe,
reducing consumer spending and creating a recession.




$210billion expectation value of damage due to

? Multiple developed economies take steps (tariffs, WTO disputes) which slow existing trade and further
undermine talks on increased global integration.






Code:
(level),probability,economical damage,deaths: 

(1),<1%,$5e9,4e3 
(2),1%,$1e10,8e3 
(3),3%,$3e10,2e4 
(4),5%,$5e10,4e4 
(5),7%,$1.3e11,1e5 
(6),10%,$2.5e11,2e5 
(7),15%,$5e11,4e5 
(8),20%,$1e12,1e6 
(9),>20%,>$1e12,>1e6



Code:
a:risk name
b:probability level for 2008
c:economical damage level for 2008
d:deaths level for 2008
e:probability level for 2007
f:economical damage level for 2008
g:deaths level for 2008
h:expectation value of damage in 2008 (in $1e9)
i:expectation value of damage in 2007 (in $1e9)


a                                                  bcd efg     h      i
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
blow up in asset prices/indebtedness               89  79      600    450 
trade retarding                                    59          210    0 
oil price shock                                    77  77      75     75 
China hard landing                                 67  77      50     75 
middle east instability                            765 865     37     50 
chronic disease in developed world                 767 857     37     26 
pandemics                                          579 377     35     14 
breakdown of critical information structure        661 561     25     17 
violence in Iraq                                   946         20     0 
heatwaves                                          653         13     0 
US current account deficit                         65  55      13     9 
retrenchment from globalization                    65  49      13     150 
climate change                                     654 55      13     9 
interstate and civil wars                          557 677     9      50 
..US/Iran conflict                                 555         9      0 
transnational crime and corruption                 551 663     9      25 
liability regimes                                  55  55      9      9 
rising and volatile food prices                    559         9      0 
failed and failing states                          746 746     7      7 
..US/Korea conflict                                455         6      0 
coming fiscal crisis caused by demographic shift   45  35      6      3 
infectious disease in developing world             459 549     6      3 
..in Afghanistan                                   833         6      0 
earthquakes                                        357 35      3      3 
tropical storms                                    355 35      3      3 
conflict in occupied territories                   543         3      0 
loss of freshwater                                 534 645     2      5 
international terrorism                            533 732     2      4 
flooding                                           344 343     1      1 
proliferation of WMD                               623 630     1      3 
..Latin America                                    331         0      0 
..in Horn of Africa                                713         0      0 
..US/China conflict                                    67      0      50
 
Re: Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2006, 2007, 2008

Prepared for a pandemic?

2 May 2008

A pandemic ‘flu that causes massive disruption to economies around the world is inevitable and all businesses must prepare for it now. That was the stark message to emerge from a recent high level seminar co-organised by Lloyd’s and XL.

In a series of sobering presentations, business continuity and risk management experts explained how insurers and their customers could be affected by a pandemic and what they can do to mitigate the fall-out from a nightmare scenario.

In risk management terms, a pandemic is unlike any other natural or manmade disaster that businesses routinely prepare for. A ‘flu pandemic is not a sudden, short lived event like a terrorist attack or industrial explosion that destroys infrastructure in a localised area. It could last for months.

“Nobody knows when this will happen, so it is a challenge to make it real to people,” Professor Lindsey Davies, national director of pandemic influenza preparedness at the Department of Health admitted. “But it will happen.”

When it does happen, a pandemic flu outbreak will come in one or more waves each lasting about 15 weeks nationally, weeks or months apart. If the pandemic starts elsewhere, it will probably reach the UK within 2-4 weeks.

Droplets (from sneezing) are the main route of spread; the incubation period is 4-5 days from the onset of symptoms. A reasonable scenario for the UK is a clinical attack rate of 50% of the population with maximum case fatality of 2.5% of those with symptoms. Adults with uncomplicated ‘flu may be off work for up to 10 days.

Clearly, companies need to have policies and procedures in place to keep their business running with a greatly reduced workforce. They need to consider the affect a pandemic will have on their supply chain as well as their customers and how they are perceived. In a pandemic crisis, they must be ready to make radical changes to the way they work.

What is unique about a pandemic crisis, in terms of business continuity, is that no institution will escape it – including the emergency services. As Commissioner Mike Bowron of the City of London Police put it, “The challenge for us, like other organisations, will be maintaining a good service with a high absentee rate. It will be difficult to encourage people to come in to work.” The commissioner stressed that they had taken steps to mitigate this risk.

When the UK’s Financial Services Authority simulated the effect of a pandemic ‘flu on the City it assumed an absence rate of 49%. Richard Maddison, deputy head of business continuity risks at the FSA, said that the exercise revealed that from the outset participants’ were not fully aware of the impact a pandemic would have on their suppliers and that there was uncertainty about how a pandemic will spread. “Plans and HR policies need amending,” he warned.

All the evidence points to a lack of preparedness among business. A YouGov survey last year found that over three quarters of companies have inadequate plans; around a third have no strategy at all.

Drawing a pandemic timeline, the FSA’s exercise showed how institutions will be challenged as a pandemic quickly develops momentum. Chillingly, by week five of the simulation, companies were extending HR policies to include emergency financial support, accommodation and death in service benefits to employees.

The insurance industry will potentially have to cope with an variety of claims , while it is still reeling from its own business continuity problems, Trevor Maynard, emerging risk manager at Lloyd’s, said. Life and health programmes will be directly impacted but less immediately obvious losses could pile up as businesses grind to a halt, from credit insurance to event cancellation.
Top 10 tips for businesses to cope with a pandemic

• Although the emergency services are taking pandemic preparedness very seriously continuity plans should consider the impact of a reduced level of service.

• Educate your staff in advance on the hygiene and quarantine procedures they may need to take.

• Identify who your key personnel are and explore cross training to help cope with absent staff.

• Check that your suppliers are as well prepared as you are for a pandemic.

• Decide on corporate priorities and the key services that must be maintained.

• Exercise contingency plans against the timeline of a pandemic.

• Fully understand how telecommuting can serve the business and where the weak points are.

• Evaluate your requirements for bandwidth at your gateway and consider buying extra now.

• Be prepared for subsequent waves and plan for the recovery phase.

• Expect a more fluid job market as employees react to how they were treated by employers during the pandemic.



http://www.lloyds.com/News_Centre/Features_from_Lloyds/Prepared_for_a_pandemic_02052008.htm
 
Re: Global Risks Annual Reports - World Economic Forum, 2006, 2007, 2008

recalling a document(draft) for UK from "SAG" Nov.2007
it tried to predict the timing effects of countermeasures

http://www.advisorybodies.doh.gov.uk/sagpf/minutes/sag-modelling-summary-nov2007.pdf

-------------edit 1----------
that link no longer works, but I found it here:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2896563.ece

http://www.resilience.gov.uk/~/medi...nce.info/flu_pandemic_science_paper1 pdf.ashx
page 55ff

without intervention:
- panflu starts in Asia
- 2-4 weeks to build up in the country of origin
- 2-4 weeks to spread from Asia to UK
- 7 weeks until peak in UK

90% travel restriction from all countries : delay = 3-4 weeks
99.9% travel restriction (very hard)from all countries : delay = 3-4 months

- prophylactic antivirals postpone outbreak by duration of prophylaxis,
no immunity developed
- recommended is household prophylaxis, redoubling of stockpile required
- recommended prepandemic vaccine
- recommended is contact tracing of first ~300 cases

current UK-stockpiles (doses in % of population):
prepandemic Vaccine : 2%
antivirals : 25%
antibiotics : 0.4%

40%,25%,14% would almost half the CAR (?)
100%,75%,0.4% would reduce CAR to ~1/8 (?)
school closure, no gathering of children, reduces CAR by ~10%

vaccine available after 4-6 months
 
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