tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Glob Public Health
. 2020 Aug 13;1-6.
doi: 10.1080/17441692.2020.1808040. Online ahead of print.
Death tolls of COVID-19: Where come the fallacies and ways to make them more accurate
Timothy P H Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kelvin H Wan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Suber S Huang[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Jost B Jonas[SUP] 5 [/SUP], David S C Hui[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Dennis S C Lam[SUP] 2 7 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
The death toll of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sparked much controversy since its advent in December 2019. Underestimation because of under testing and deaths happening outside the hospitals were important causes. Bold revisions of the diagnostic criteria leading to dramatic changes in death tolls by different governments were observed in attempts to generate more accurate estimates. On the other hand, the influence, censorship and manipulation on case and death data from top political leaders of some countries could create important impacts on the death toll. Baseline mortality data of previous years may help make more accurate estimates of the actual death toll. The pitfalls and strategies during such processes could become valuable lessons to leaders and policymakers worldwide as more accurate statistics serve to navigate policies to combat this pandemic in the days and months to come.
Keywords: COVID-19; case definition; death toll; infectious disease; mortality.
. 2020 Aug 13;1-6.
doi: 10.1080/17441692.2020.1808040. Online ahead of print.
Death tolls of COVID-19: Where come the fallacies and ways to make them more accurate
Timothy P H Lin[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Kelvin H Wan[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Suber S Huang[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Jost B Jonas[SUP] 5 [/SUP], David S C Hui[SUP] 6 [/SUP], Dennis S C Lam[SUP] 2 7 8 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32787510
- DOI: 10.1080/17441692.2020.1808040
Abstract
The death toll of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) sparked much controversy since its advent in December 2019. Underestimation because of under testing and deaths happening outside the hospitals were important causes. Bold revisions of the diagnostic criteria leading to dramatic changes in death tolls by different governments were observed in attempts to generate more accurate estimates. On the other hand, the influence, censorship and manipulation on case and death data from top political leaders of some countries could create important impacts on the death toll. Baseline mortality data of previous years may help make more accurate estimates of the actual death toll. The pitfalls and strategies during such processes could become valuable lessons to leaders and policymakers worldwide as more accurate statistics serve to navigate policies to combat this pandemic in the days and months to come.
Keywords: COVID-19; case definition; death toll; infectious disease; mortality.