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Get ready for third wave of H1N1
By Aaron Derfel, Gazette Health Reporter
November 18, 2009 9:18 PMC
Head nurse Danielle Beauregard gives a flu shot to Paula McIver at the Chateau Westmount, Nov. 18, 2009.
Photograph by: Phil Carpenter, Montreal Gazette
The second wave of the H1N1 pandemic appears to be cresting in the Montreal area, but at least a hundred people a day continue to come down with the swine flu, public-health authorities said Wednesday.
And in the new year, Quebecers should expect a third wave of H1N1 infections, reinforcing the view that the pandemic is far from over, the director of the Montreal Public Health Department warned.
“The flu continues to circulate in a significant manner in the metropolitan region,” said Dr. Richard Lessard. “We’re reporting 80 to 100 laboratory-confirmed cases each day. There is certain stability (to the incidence of new infections), but there hasn’t been a decrease.”
Since the beginning of the second wave at the end of August, the Montreal Health and Social Services Agency has recorded a cumulative total of 1,251 cases of H1N1, six of which resulted in death. Two of those deaths occurred in the last two weeks.
What’s more, there are far more people getting infected in the community, but those cases are not being counted.
Since the start of the academic year, H1N1 has caused 129 outbreaks in schools across the island of Montreal, including five in the last 24 hours.
And that’s one of the reasons why authorities are launching a vaccination blitz Thursday aimed at immunizing up to 170,000 elementary and high school students in the next four weeks.
Outbreaks also have sprouted in some health-care institutions, but not to the same extent. Since the start of the second wave, there have been 13 and none in the last 24 hours.
In its latest update, the World Health Organization is observing a similar trend across North America, with Canada reporting “sharp increases in rates of influenza-like-illness … and school outbreaks over the past three weeks as pandemic activity continues to spread west to east.”
Globally, H1N1 has caused more than 6,250 deaths. Lessard said the H1N1 strain is responsible for 97 per cent of confirmed cases of the flu in Montreal.
To date, the H1N1 pandemic is proving to be considerably less deadly than the Spanish flu of 1918-19. But that pandemic also was caused by a swine flu virus that erupted in a first wave during the summer. It peaked in a second wave during the fall and early winter, and ended in a third wave in the spring.
Although most healthy adult Montrealers probably won’t get immunized until after the peak of the second wave, Lessard urged people to continue to line up for shots.
“The WHO is expecting a third wave,” he said.
“What we’ve learned is that the pandemic virus doesn’t last only a year. It lasts for 10 to 20 years, even 30 years. So it’s probably a good idea to get vaccinated now because it’s going to protect you in the long run. We do expect the third wave sometime in the next year. It’s better to get vaccinated now instead of getting the disease later.”
David Levine, executive director of the Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, bemoaned the fact there has been a drop in turnout at vaccination clinics in the past two days. Levine noted the Palais de Congrès’s vaccination clinic is being used at roughly half its capacity.
As of Tuesday, more than 359,000 Montrealers have been vaccinated.
The health and social services agency is continuing to stick to its date of Dec. 7 to vaccinate all healthy adults, in contrast with Toronto’s decision this week to immediately make available flu shots to everyone.
Lessard said Quebec has decided to immunize the highest-risk groups first, given the limited supply of vaccine. He suggested that in Toronto, some healthy adults might now be getting the flu shot ahead of high-risk individuals.
Health officials provided more details about the death of a man in his 80s following an H1N1 vaccination in the last three weeks.
Alain Poirier, Quebec’s chief public health officer, confirmed the man had a
“sudden allergic reaction” to the vaccine that required he be intubated immediately to help him breathe. He was hospitalized and died eight days later.
But Poirier pointed out the man had suffered from a number of chronic illnesses that hastened his death. Authorities would not reveal the man’s age or where he lived.
“The vaccine was not a direct cause of the death, but the man deteriorated as a result of an allergic reaction,” Poirier said. “Given that this was an elderly person who already had a number of chronic illnesses ... it was the other conditions that were responsible. But we have to wait for the results of the autopsy.”
To date, about 1.5 million Quebecers have been vaccinated. Health officials have been monitoring side effects and have counted 23 severe reactions, including the man’s death.
“The vaccine is perfectly safe,” Poirier added.
Lessard went so far as to say the H1N1 vaccine is safer than the seasonal flu shot.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/health/ready+third+wave+H1N1/2238240/story.html
By Aaron Derfel, Gazette Health Reporter
November 18, 2009 9:18 PMC
Head nurse Danielle Beauregard gives a flu shot to Paula McIver at the Chateau Westmount, Nov. 18, 2009.
Photograph by: Phil Carpenter, Montreal Gazette
The second wave of the H1N1 pandemic appears to be cresting in the Montreal area, but at least a hundred people a day continue to come down with the swine flu, public-health authorities said Wednesday.
And in the new year, Quebecers should expect a third wave of H1N1 infections, reinforcing the view that the pandemic is far from over, the director of the Montreal Public Health Department warned.
“The flu continues to circulate in a significant manner in the metropolitan region,” said Dr. Richard Lessard. “We’re reporting 80 to 100 laboratory-confirmed cases each day. There is certain stability (to the incidence of new infections), but there hasn’t been a decrease.”
Since the beginning of the second wave at the end of August, the Montreal Health and Social Services Agency has recorded a cumulative total of 1,251 cases of H1N1, six of which resulted in death. Two of those deaths occurred in the last two weeks.
What’s more, there are far more people getting infected in the community, but those cases are not being counted.
Since the start of the academic year, H1N1 has caused 129 outbreaks in schools across the island of Montreal, including five in the last 24 hours.
And that’s one of the reasons why authorities are launching a vaccination blitz Thursday aimed at immunizing up to 170,000 elementary and high school students in the next four weeks.
Outbreaks also have sprouted in some health-care institutions, but not to the same extent. Since the start of the second wave, there have been 13 and none in the last 24 hours.
In its latest update, the World Health Organization is observing a similar trend across North America, with Canada reporting “sharp increases in rates of influenza-like-illness … and school outbreaks over the past three weeks as pandemic activity continues to spread west to east.”
Globally, H1N1 has caused more than 6,250 deaths. Lessard said the H1N1 strain is responsible for 97 per cent of confirmed cases of the flu in Montreal.
To date, the H1N1 pandemic is proving to be considerably less deadly than the Spanish flu of 1918-19. But that pandemic also was caused by a swine flu virus that erupted in a first wave during the summer. It peaked in a second wave during the fall and early winter, and ended in a third wave in the spring.
Although most healthy adult Montrealers probably won’t get immunized until after the peak of the second wave, Lessard urged people to continue to line up for shots.
“The WHO is expecting a third wave,” he said.
“What we’ve learned is that the pandemic virus doesn’t last only a year. It lasts for 10 to 20 years, even 30 years. So it’s probably a good idea to get vaccinated now because it’s going to protect you in the long run. We do expect the third wave sometime in the next year. It’s better to get vaccinated now instead of getting the disease later.”
David Levine, executive director of the Montreal Health and Social Services Agency, bemoaned the fact there has been a drop in turnout at vaccination clinics in the past two days. Levine noted the Palais de Congrès’s vaccination clinic is being used at roughly half its capacity.
As of Tuesday, more than 359,000 Montrealers have been vaccinated.
The health and social services agency is continuing to stick to its date of Dec. 7 to vaccinate all healthy adults, in contrast with Toronto’s decision this week to immediately make available flu shots to everyone.
Lessard said Quebec has decided to immunize the highest-risk groups first, given the limited supply of vaccine. He suggested that in Toronto, some healthy adults might now be getting the flu shot ahead of high-risk individuals.
Health officials provided more details about the death of a man in his 80s following an H1N1 vaccination in the last three weeks.
Alain Poirier, Quebec’s chief public health officer, confirmed the man had a
“sudden allergic reaction” to the vaccine that required he be intubated immediately to help him breathe. He was hospitalized and died eight days later.
But Poirier pointed out the man had suffered from a number of chronic illnesses that hastened his death. Authorities would not reveal the man’s age or where he lived.
“The vaccine was not a direct cause of the death, but the man deteriorated as a result of an allergic reaction,” Poirier said. “Given that this was an elderly person who already had a number of chronic illnesses ... it was the other conditions that were responsible. But we have to wait for the results of the autopsy.”
To date, about 1.5 million Quebecers have been vaccinated. Health officials have been monitoring side effects and have counted 23 severe reactions, including the man’s death.
“The vaccine is perfectly safe,” Poirier added.
Lessard went so far as to say the H1N1 vaccine is safer than the seasonal flu shot.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/health/ready+third+wave+H1N1/2238240/story.html