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Current risk assessment for avian influenza/bird flu: Continued high risk of avian influenza
December 12, 2025 Short news
Despite a noticeable decline in case numbers, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute ( FLI ) continues to assess the risk of infection in wild and captive birds as high. While the epidemic among cranes in Germany has largely subsided, the virus still circulates within the wild bird population.
Making predictions for the coming weeks remains difficult, as events can be influenced by numerous factors such as weather conditions and possible changes in the virus's strain.
Title page: Risk assessment
Download
- Risk assessment for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 ( HPAI H5) clade 2.3.4.4b
https://www.openagrar.de/servlets/MCRFileNodeServlet/openagrar_derivate_00069240/FLI-Risikoeinschaetzung_HPAI_H5_2025-12-09.pdf
https://www.fli.de/de/aktuelles/kur...pe-weiterhin-hohes-risiko-fuer-gefluegelpest/
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From the PDF link above:
Risk assessment
for highly pathogenic avian influenza H5
(HPAI H5) clade 2.3.4.4b
Update for December
based on the period
November 1 - November 30, 2025
Situation in Germany
Between November 1st and 30th, 105 outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 were detected in poultry and
captive birds in nine German states (Table 1 and Figure 2). Turkey farms were primarily affected,
followed by chicken, goose, and duck farms (Table 3).
A total of 1,465 cases of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds were reported during the reporting period
(Table 2 and Figures 1 and 2). Some reports refer to outbreaks involving more than one animal. All German states were affected, with cranes (700) and wild geese (>400) being the most commonly affected species.
For the same period, HPAI H5N1 was also detected in a total of four foxes (Hesse, Baden-Württemberg (2), Rhineland-Palatinate), two dogs from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (serologically), and one cat from Brandenburg.
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