German ILI-map

[gsgs]

well, they call it "ARE"

http://influenza.rki.de/


the sky is blue over Germany but a few white clouds sprinkle over the country


compare with France:

http://magictour.free.fr/panflu/frank09.JPG


ger0a.gif shows the 12 regions (N-->S) with curves for 2007/8 and 2008/9.
The red point on the left shows where we are actually.
Not much elevated as compared to previous seasons.

They must be stopping the French viruses at the border ;-)

 

[Snowy Owl]

Re: German ILI-map

Danken Gs

Snowy

 

[Hogweed]

Re: German ILI-map

Oktoberfest?

http://www.google.org/flutrends/de/

They must be stopping the French viruses at the border ;-)

They must have had to stop that as it would be illegal under EU law Google now reckons German ILI has now surpassed France - in fact France is going down (at the moment).

 

[gsgs]

Re: German ILI-map

but AFAIR google flu-trends poorly correlated
with ILI-rates

 

[Hogweed]

Re: German ILI-map

but AFAIR google flu-trends poorly correlated
with ILI-rates

They actually seem to correlate quite well in most of the cross-checking I've done. You can download the raw current and historical data (expressed in the US term of %ILI visits for the US - and I think as a population percentage for other countries) - ie 5424 in the Google data means a US rate of 5.4% which is Google's current value for the US as a whole (CDC at 5.1%). Usually if Google shows an upward trend then the official national/state data goes up the following week and similar for downwards trend.

 

[gsgs]

Re: German ILI-map

http://influenza.rki.de/MapArchive.aspx

less than last week, more than week 52


the whole outbreak took only ~6 weeks and there is hope, that it killed oldflu-A


but next year could be bad, remember 2003/2004 when the world suffered from Fujian-flu,
not so Germany

http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?region=Germany&year=2010&week=01&type=hist

 

[gsgs]

Re: German ILI-map

Russia,Belarus,Moldova going up again

some West-European countries with an early 1st wave
like Belgium,Netherlands
are also slightly going up again (at low level).
Start for another wave ?
(my probability:25%)


Ukraine: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Ukraine&type=c
Belarus: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Belarus&type=c
Moldavien: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Republic+of+Moldova&type=c
Russland: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Russian+Federation&type=c
Belgien: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Belgium&type=c
De: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Germany&type=c
Holland: http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=2&region=Netherlands&type=c

 

[gsgs]

Re: German ILI-map

seems that Germany is preparing to report ILI in future too,
alongside with ARE

http://www.euroflu.org/cgi-files/figures2002.cgi?year=2010&week=12&region=Germany&type=c1