tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019 Sep 23. pii: 201909613. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1909613116. [Epub ahead of print]
[h=1]Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines.[/h] Sah P[SUP]1[/SUP], Alfaro-Murillo JA[SUP]1[/SUP], Fitzpatrick MC[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Neuzil KM[SUP]2[/SUP], Meyers LA[SUP]3[/SUP], Singer BH[SUP]4[/SUP], Galvani AP[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520. 2 Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201. 3 Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712. 4 Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.
Copyright ? 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] mathematical model; medical cost; seasonal vaccine
PMID: 31548402 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909613116
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[h=1]Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines.[/h] Sah P[SUP]1[/SUP], Alfaro-Murillo JA[SUP]1[/SUP], Fitzpatrick MC[SUP]1,[/SUP][SUP]2[/SUP], Neuzil KM[SUP]2[/SUP], Meyers LA[SUP]3[/SUP], Singer BH[SUP]4[/SUP], Galvani AP[SUP]1[/SUP].
[h=3]Author information[/h] 1 Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06520. 2 Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201. 3 Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712. 4 Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610 bhsinger@epi.ufl.edu.
[h=3]Abstract[/h] The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act. Using a model of influenza transmission, we evaluated the population-level impacts of universal influenza vaccines distributed according to empirical age-specific coverage at multiple scales in the United States. We estimate that replacing just 10% of typical seasonal vaccines with 75% efficacious universal vaccines would avert ∼5.3 million cases, 81,000 hospitalizations, and 6,300 influenza-related deaths per year. This would prevent over $1.1 billion in direct health care costs compared to a typical season, based on average data from the 2010-11 to 2018-19 seasons. A complete replacement of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines is projected to prevent 17 million cases, 251,000 hospitalizations, 19,500 deaths, and $3.5 billion in direct health care costs. States with high per-hospitalization medical expenses along with a large proportion of elderly residents are expected to receive the maximum economic benefit. Replacing even a fraction of seasonal vaccines with universal vaccines justifies the substantial cost of vaccine development.
Copyright ? 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
[h=4]KEYWORDS:[/h] mathematical model; medical cost; seasonal vaccine
PMID: 31548402 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1909613116
Free full text