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R, incidence rate ...: why the epidemic has nothing to do with last March
IN FIGURES - is the current epidemic recovery situation comparable to last spring when the intensive care units were about to be totally saturated? Olivier V?ran provided some answers, supporting figures.
Sep 17 2:08 PM - Lea Lucas
The circulation of Covid-19 is accelerating again in France. But will we relive the same situation in hospitals as last spring? Supporting figures, the Minister of Health Olivier V?ran compared the two epidemic periods in his weekly intervention on Thursday. For many reasons this second wave is very different from the first wave. Here is what is changing.
The speed of virus spread is slower . The "R-Factor" is the monitoring tool that allows the speed of virus circulation to be measured in real time. When this speed is low, the indicator is less than 1. Last March, in the midst of an epidemic, this indicator displayed three. Today, it is " three times lower than last spring , announced Olivier V?ran. But still higher than one. This means that the virus is gaining ground ."
More positive tests but less contamination. An increase in the rate of positive tests has also been observed in recent weeks, but remains lower than last March. At the start of the summer: 1 in 100 people tested positive, now 5 out of 100 people. " It reflects the spread of the epidemic, " he said. However, last March, a sick person infected two people every three days, while now a sick person infects on average two people every two weeks.
The mode of propagation is no longer the same. " The virus has never stopped circulating, " said the Minister of Health, but mainly circulates among young people: 140 per 100,000 in 15 - 44 year olds, 50% of whom are asymptomatic. The virus has been moving from the young to the more vulnerable older people since August.
The way to fight the virus has also changed . " We are no longer fighting with the same weapons ", explains Olivier V?ran. Support and hospitalizations are more secure. Severe cases no longer necessarily go to intensive care. The use of respiratory assistance is no longer systematic. The severe forms are reduced.
The reading of the epidemic curves has changed. There is no longer a single curve to be " flattened " at the national level, but there are "as many curves as there are epidemic centers". The restrictive measures are, thus, " differentiated, territorialized, to take into account the situation of each place where the virus circulates differently ". The attainment of the " alert threshold " varies. Marseille, for example, is six times above this threshold, against three times for Paris. These cities will therefore not be affected by the same decisions, which become local decisions.
https://www.lci.fr/sante/covid-19-c...us-rien-a-voir-avec-mars-dernier-2164855.html
R, incidence rate ...: why the epidemic has nothing to do with last March
IN FIGURES - is the current epidemic recovery situation comparable to last spring when the intensive care units were about to be totally saturated? Olivier V?ran provided some answers, supporting figures.
Sep 17 2:08 PM - Lea Lucas
The circulation of Covid-19 is accelerating again in France. But will we relive the same situation in hospitals as last spring? Supporting figures, the Minister of Health Olivier V?ran compared the two epidemic periods in his weekly intervention on Thursday. For many reasons this second wave is very different from the first wave. Here is what is changing.
The speed of virus spread is slower . The "R-Factor" is the monitoring tool that allows the speed of virus circulation to be measured in real time. When this speed is low, the indicator is less than 1. Last March, in the midst of an epidemic, this indicator displayed three. Today, it is " three times lower than last spring , announced Olivier V?ran. But still higher than one. This means that the virus is gaining ground ."
More positive tests but less contamination. An increase in the rate of positive tests has also been observed in recent weeks, but remains lower than last March. At the start of the summer: 1 in 100 people tested positive, now 5 out of 100 people. " It reflects the spread of the epidemic, " he said. However, last March, a sick person infected two people every three days, while now a sick person infects on average two people every two weeks.
The mode of propagation is no longer the same. " The virus has never stopped circulating, " said the Minister of Health, but mainly circulates among young people: 140 per 100,000 in 15 - 44 year olds, 50% of whom are asymptomatic. The virus has been moving from the young to the more vulnerable older people since August.
The way to fight the virus has also changed . " We are no longer fighting with the same weapons ", explains Olivier V?ran. Support and hospitalizations are more secure. Severe cases no longer necessarily go to intensive care. The use of respiratory assistance is no longer systematic. The severe forms are reduced.
The reading of the epidemic curves has changed. There is no longer a single curve to be " flattened " at the national level, but there are "as many curves as there are epidemic centers". The restrictive measures are, thus, " differentiated, territorialized, to take into account the situation of each place where the virus circulates differently ". The attainment of the " alert threshold " varies. Marseille, for example, is six times above this threshold, against three times for Paris. These cities will therefore not be affected by the same decisions, which become local decisions.
https://www.lci.fr/sante/covid-19-c...us-rien-a-voir-avec-mars-dernier-2164855.html