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France - COVID-19: 363,350 cases, 30,893 deaths?
- Thread starter Pathfinder
- Start date
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Translation Google
CORONAVIRUS: THE SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL CONSIDERS "EXTREMELY LIKELY" THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND WAVE
Hugo Septier
The 6/23/2020 at 7:29 AM
Based on three criteria, including low collective immunity in France, the Scientific Council calls on the authorities to be extremely vigilant.
Are we done with the Covid-19? If, for the time being, it is too early to speak of a second wave of coronavirus in mainland France , the Scientific Council, in an opinion submitted to the government this Sunday , calls for the greatest vigilance. According to the thirteen members who compose it, the return in force of the disease on the French territory, in the short or medium term, is a probability.
"An intensification of the circulation of SARSCoV-2 in the northern hemisphere at a more or less distant time (a few months, and especially with the approach of winter) is extremely probable", one can read.
Three criteria
To reach this conclusion, the Scientific Council relies on three criteria. First of all, the weak collective immunity in France , estimated today at 5% of the population, an insufficient figure "to prevent the occurrence of a second epidemic wave".
Then comes the circulation of the virus, which is still very important outside Europe, and in particular in the southern hemisphere. Several countries, which are currently entering the winter period, are experiencing an uncontrolled multiplication of cases. In Brazil, the second most affected country in the world after the United States , there are a total of 51,271 deaths for more than 1.1 million cases.
As a third argument is evoked "the experience of influenza pandemics", which made it possible to rule on a decisive point: the latter "took place in two or three waves before adopting a seasonal rhythm."
"We know inherently that in the fall, in temperate countries like France, there are more viruses circulating, and that we will end up in favorable conditions", analysis from BFMTV Benjamin Davido , infectiologist at the Raymond-Poincar? hospital in Garches.
"Because when it is colder, we are more often in confined atmospheres, we are therefore more gathered, more bonded, we are less outside, and we have less distance," continues the specialist.
"We thought about it, we looked at what had happened in the past. It is systematically the same thing, there is a viral emergence, an epidemic spread in spring and summer and the viruses go around the planet. They are stalling on a winter seasonality for temperate countries ", assures Bruno Lina, member of the scientific council Covid-19.
A question that is still debated
If the Scientific Council voluntarily prepares for the worst scenarios, the question of the second wave remains the subject of lively debate within the scientific community. At the time of the deconfinement, several of them, including Professor Didier Raoult, considered that a strong return of the Covid-19 of the disease was more than improbable .
Last week, this same director general of the IHU Mediterranean Infection now judged that it was necessary to closely monitor New Zealand , a country with a climate similar to that of France, which will start the winter season.
In the event of a second effective wave, Jean-Fran?ois Delfraissy, the president of the Scientific Council, informed, during his hearing at the National Assembly, that a plan was already ready . He considered that "partial containment" of the population could be envisaged.
"The scientific council has its role, that of imagining everything that can happen. It says it very clearly, 'we are giving you feedback to fight against unpreparedness'," analyzes the consultant on Tuesday morning. health of BFMTV, Alain Ducardonnet.
"A few months" to prepare
In many ways, the advice of the Scientific Council should allow the authorities to organize themselves now. This is all that some of its members argue.
"We still have a few weeks, or even I hope a few months to prepare for this day of opening beds […] because the second wave could be much more important than the first," explains resuscitator Lila to Liberation . Bouadma.
For Bruno Lima, the preparation for the coming weeks is like a "building site."
"There is a whole structure that must be maintained over time, we must coordinate, it is still under construction but compared to March we are ready. We need adjustments," he concludes.
https://twitter.com/Hugo_Septier
Hugo Septier
BFMTV Journalist
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronav...vee-d-une-deuxieme-vague_AV-202006230020.html
CORONAVIRUS: THE SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL CONSIDERS "EXTREMELY LIKELY" THE ARRIVAL OF A SECOND WAVE
Hugo Septier
The 6/23/2020 at 7:29 AM
Based on three criteria, including low collective immunity in France, the Scientific Council calls on the authorities to be extremely vigilant.
Are we done with the Covid-19? If, for the time being, it is too early to speak of a second wave of coronavirus in mainland France , the Scientific Council, in an opinion submitted to the government this Sunday , calls for the greatest vigilance. According to the thirteen members who compose it, the return in force of the disease on the French territory, in the short or medium term, is a probability.
"An intensification of the circulation of SARSCoV-2 in the northern hemisphere at a more or less distant time (a few months, and especially with the approach of winter) is extremely probable", one can read.
Three criteria
To reach this conclusion, the Scientific Council relies on three criteria. First of all, the weak collective immunity in France , estimated today at 5% of the population, an insufficient figure "to prevent the occurrence of a second epidemic wave".
Then comes the circulation of the virus, which is still very important outside Europe, and in particular in the southern hemisphere. Several countries, which are currently entering the winter period, are experiencing an uncontrolled multiplication of cases. In Brazil, the second most affected country in the world after the United States , there are a total of 51,271 deaths for more than 1.1 million cases.
As a third argument is evoked "the experience of influenza pandemics", which made it possible to rule on a decisive point: the latter "took place in two or three waves before adopting a seasonal rhythm."
"We know inherently that in the fall, in temperate countries like France, there are more viruses circulating, and that we will end up in favorable conditions", analysis from BFMTV Benjamin Davido , infectiologist at the Raymond-Poincar? hospital in Garches.
"Because when it is colder, we are more often in confined atmospheres, we are therefore more gathered, more bonded, we are less outside, and we have less distance," continues the specialist.
"We thought about it, we looked at what had happened in the past. It is systematically the same thing, there is a viral emergence, an epidemic spread in spring and summer and the viruses go around the planet. They are stalling on a winter seasonality for temperate countries ", assures Bruno Lina, member of the scientific council Covid-19.
A question that is still debated
If the Scientific Council voluntarily prepares for the worst scenarios, the question of the second wave remains the subject of lively debate within the scientific community. At the time of the deconfinement, several of them, including Professor Didier Raoult, considered that a strong return of the Covid-19 of the disease was more than improbable .
Last week, this same director general of the IHU Mediterranean Infection now judged that it was necessary to closely monitor New Zealand , a country with a climate similar to that of France, which will start the winter season.
In the event of a second effective wave, Jean-Fran?ois Delfraissy, the president of the Scientific Council, informed, during his hearing at the National Assembly, that a plan was already ready . He considered that "partial containment" of the population could be envisaged.
"The scientific council has its role, that of imagining everything that can happen. It says it very clearly, 'we are giving you feedback to fight against unpreparedness'," analyzes the consultant on Tuesday morning. health of BFMTV, Alain Ducardonnet.
"A few months" to prepare
In many ways, the advice of the Scientific Council should allow the authorities to organize themselves now. This is all that some of its members argue.
"We still have a few weeks, or even I hope a few months to prepare for this day of opening beds […] because the second wave could be much more important than the first," explains resuscitator Lila to Liberation . Bouadma.
For Bruno Lima, the preparation for the coming weeks is like a "building site."
"There is a whole structure that must be maintained over time, we must coordinate, it is still under construction but compared to March we are ready. We need adjustments," he concludes.
https://twitter.com/Hugo_Septier
Hugo Septier
BFMTV Journalist
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/coronav...vee-d-une-deuxieme-vague_AV-202006230020.html
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
no update.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Last edited:
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
kiwibird
Editor, Senior Moderator
