Tonka
Well-known member
http://www.milenio.com/node/274460
Translation: Spanish ? English
For winter, more infections and deaths: Ssa
In a "conservative", the unit provides for 223 deaths, more than 21 thousand hospitalizations and nearly 200 thousand cases suspected of evil from October this year until March 2010
Thu, 27/08/2009 - 05:03
Jose Angel Cordova, Secretary of Health, and Luis Guillermo Ibarra, director of the National Institute of Rehabilitation. Hector T?llezM?xico .- The Ministry of Health presented a scenario "conservative" than the country mean for the regrowth of human influenza A/H1N1 in Winter: 198 thousand 490 cases suspected of infection, 380 hospitalizations, 21 thousand, 26 thousand 511 reports sentinel units and 223 deaths.
Mauricio Hernandez, assistant secretary of Promotion and Health Prevention, said that according to the epidemiological model "conservative", covering October this year to March 2010, will almost double the number of infections and deaths from what recorded from 11 March until 25 August.
"There are scenarios in the United States in ensuring that the virus may affect 30 or even 50 percent of the population," said the undersecretary in the course of operational diagnosis, clinical management and precautions in the treatment of influenza A / H1N1.
Moreover, according to the federal official, another key aspect to be observed clearly in the winter period is that the H1N1 virus will begin to move from seasonal influenza.
"It now appears that influenza A/H1N1 and traveled to seasonal influenza. This will be seen more clearly in this winter and is very important because H1N1 is cured, it is with Tamiflu, or oseltamivir, while seasonal influenza is tough, "he said.
In his presentation, the researcher reported that according to notifications by the states, in Mexico 54 thousand 53 people have been affected by the pandemic.
However, the National Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference has confirmed only 20 thousand 860 cases, 38.59% of the samples that were taken.
On the behavior of the virus, Hernandez reported that the strain currently active affects Jalisco and Tamaulipas, while Chiapas and Yucatan are among the entities with decreasing transmissibility.
"In the case of Chiapas in 2008 we find that, in the same hospitals, there were 103 placements of less than three years, and in the summer outbreak of just 85.
However, it highlighted the fact that among young adults in 2008-2009, there were 88 hospitalizations, compared to 438 during the recent outbreak, which literally unhinged health services. To have two or three tube in intensive care patients, it went to 12, which already represented an overkill and it is very important to prepare physicians and have emergency plans, "he warned.
Hernandez located the first wave of the epidemic in April and May, which mainly hit the Midwest, the second-May to July-entities harmed south-southeast and currently the disease is spreading in the Northwest, with emphasis in Jalisco and Tamaulipas.
"Most of the suspected cases have very mild symptoms, the proportion of deaths and hospital cases has remained stable, and increased severity of the disease occurs in people with diabetes, HIV / AIDS and morbid obesity," said the official of Health.
- Keys
The virus will mutate
? The director of the National Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference, Celia Serra Puche, acknowledged that there are animal models report that the virus tends to mutate and some specialists warn that there will undoubtedly resistance to Tamiflu. ? Mexico has secured the World Bank loan of 400 million pesos.
? Some of the money will be integrated to convert the budget for the Indre in a Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Blanca Valadez
Translation: Spanish ? English
For winter, more infections and deaths: Ssa
In a "conservative", the unit provides for 223 deaths, more than 21 thousand hospitalizations and nearly 200 thousand cases suspected of evil from October this year until March 2010
Thu, 27/08/2009 - 05:03
Jose Angel Cordova, Secretary of Health, and Luis Guillermo Ibarra, director of the National Institute of Rehabilitation. Hector T?llezM?xico .- The Ministry of Health presented a scenario "conservative" than the country mean for the regrowth of human influenza A/H1N1 in Winter: 198 thousand 490 cases suspected of infection, 380 hospitalizations, 21 thousand, 26 thousand 511 reports sentinel units and 223 deaths.
Mauricio Hernandez, assistant secretary of Promotion and Health Prevention, said that according to the epidemiological model "conservative", covering October this year to March 2010, will almost double the number of infections and deaths from what recorded from 11 March until 25 August.
"There are scenarios in the United States in ensuring that the virus may affect 30 or even 50 percent of the population," said the undersecretary in the course of operational diagnosis, clinical management and precautions in the treatment of influenza A / H1N1.
Moreover, according to the federal official, another key aspect to be observed clearly in the winter period is that the H1N1 virus will begin to move from seasonal influenza.
"It now appears that influenza A/H1N1 and traveled to seasonal influenza. This will be seen more clearly in this winter and is very important because H1N1 is cured, it is with Tamiflu, or oseltamivir, while seasonal influenza is tough, "he said.
In his presentation, the researcher reported that according to notifications by the states, in Mexico 54 thousand 53 people have been affected by the pandemic.
However, the National Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference has confirmed only 20 thousand 860 cases, 38.59% of the samples that were taken.
On the behavior of the virus, Hernandez reported that the strain currently active affects Jalisco and Tamaulipas, while Chiapas and Yucatan are among the entities with decreasing transmissibility.
"In the case of Chiapas in 2008 we find that, in the same hospitals, there were 103 placements of less than three years, and in the summer outbreak of just 85.
However, it highlighted the fact that among young adults in 2008-2009, there were 88 hospitalizations, compared to 438 during the recent outbreak, which literally unhinged health services. To have two or three tube in intensive care patients, it went to 12, which already represented an overkill and it is very important to prepare physicians and have emergency plans, "he warned.
Hernandez located the first wave of the epidemic in April and May, which mainly hit the Midwest, the second-May to July-entities harmed south-southeast and currently the disease is spreading in the Northwest, with emphasis in Jalisco and Tamaulipas.
"Most of the suspected cases have very mild symptoms, the proportion of deaths and hospital cases has remained stable, and increased severity of the disease occurs in people with diabetes, HIV / AIDS and morbid obesity," said the official of Health.
- Keys
The virus will mutate
? The director of the National Institute of Epidemiological Diagnosis and Reference, Celia Serra Puche, acknowledged that there are animal models report that the virus tends to mutate and some specialists warn that there will undoubtedly resistance to Tamiflu. ? Mexico has secured the World Bank loan of 400 million pesos.
? Some of the money will be integrated to convert the budget for the Indre in a Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Blanca Valadez