For When The Bough Breaks

[Michael Coston]

For When The Bough Breaks​

CDC Infographic

#19,416

Over the past 20 years the secondary focus of this blog has been on personal preparedness, and the growing fragility our our increasingly high-tech dependent infrastructure.

Much of this comes from my 15 years of living aboard boats, and constantly thinking about what could fail (usually at the worst possible moment), and how to limit its impact.

The events of the past few days (Microsoft outage, FAA 4-hour emergency groundstop, and several very large cyber-heists) remind us how fragile or vulnerable our systems are.

Last January, in NERC: Long-Term Reliability Assessment (Jan 2026), we looked (again) at growing concerns over the stability of the nation's electrical grid, followed last May by NERC Issues Level 3 Alert As Grid Faces `Unprecedented Challenges' Due to Surge In Large Power Consumers.

Every four years the ASCE (American Society of Civil Engineers) releases a report card on America’s infrastructure, and their most recent report (2025) warns that our cumulative GPA for infrastructure sits at only a C, and one of our most vulnerable infrastructures is the electrical grid (D+).

This D+ rating is shared by Aviation, Dams, Roads, Levees, Wastewater, and Schools, while Stormwater and Transit are rated even lower. And every day that passes without addressing these problems only increases the risks.

Regardless of what conspires to bring these systems down (age, neglect, deliberate sabotage, etc.), the impact will often first fall upon the American public.

I was in New Orleans 5 weeks after Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and there was still no electricity, or running water, across most of the city. The streets were lined with debris and dead refrigerators filled with rotting food, pharmacies were still boarded up, and any semblance of normalcy was still months away.

In 2014's Water, Water, Everywhere But Not A Drop To Drink we saw hundreds of thousands of Ohio residents without potable water for days due to harmful toxins produced by a microcystis algae bloom. This was neither the first or last such event.

A similar emergency was declared in Oregon in 2018 (see Tapping Into Your Preps).




(2018 advisory)


Eight years ago, in NIAC: Surviving A Catastrophic Power Outage, we looked at a presidential commission's report on the risks of a major, prolonged, grid collapse.

https://www.hsdl.org/?view&did=819354

This 92-page report was released a little more than a year after hurricane ravaged Puerto Rico suffered the longest (11-month) grid failure in American History and a year following another report - DHS: NIAC Cyber Threat Report - August 2017 - that warned of growing cyber threats to our critical infrastructure and called for `bold, decisive actions'.

Over the past 10 years I've gone through 2 hurricane-induced extended (4-7 day) power outages, and one prolonged community well failure, that had me relying on my personal preps for food, water, and power for days.

Yet I've been lucky. Many others have had to deal with far worse.

In recent months we've seen increased calls by governments around the world for increased personal preparedness (see UK National Risk Register 2026 - Urges Citizen Preparedness). While the reasons given are often vague, concerns over natural or man-made disasters appear to be rising.

California and the Pacific Northwest are bracing for what could be an unprecedented winter El Nino (see California Declares State of Emergency to Bolster Statewide El Niño Preparedness), while Florida has just completed its first El Nino Awareness week.

This year, I've beefed up my solar preps, adding a second solar panel, and additional battery capacity (see #NPM26: It's a 12 Volt Life). I've added a battery operated camp shower, a better shortwave radio, and have recently gone through and thrown out long out-of-date canned food from my pantry.

None of which guarantees I'll come away unscathed from an emergency, but I firmly believe it greatly increases my chances.

While I'm far from a luddite (I love my gadgets), I know that things break. And as a (former) computer programer I know the more complicated a system becomes, the more likely it is to fail and the harder it will be to fix.

Given the complexities of our aging infrastructure, it follows that more failures can be expected. Whether due to natural disasters, failed upgrades, `bad actors', or simply bad luck . . . the odds increase a little each day that you will be adversely affected.

The question isn't whether another emergency will arise, it is whether you and your family will be ready to deal with it. How you should prepare will depend upon where you live, the likely threats you will face, and logistical, physical, or financial limitations.

I'm unlikely to freeze to death here in Florida, but heat-related deaths are relatively common. And while Southern California doesn't worry about hurricanes, they do have a significant seismic threat.

How you go about preparing may be different, but your goals are pretty similar. So if the power goes out today - and stays out for a week - do you have?

• A battery operated NWS Emergency Radio to find out what was going on, and to get vital instructions from emergency officials
• A decent first-aid kit, so that you can treat injuries
• Enough non-perishable food and water on hand to feed and hydrate your family (including pets) for the duration
• A way to provide light when the grid is down.
• A way to cook safely without electricity
• A way to purify or filter water
• A way to handle basic sanitation and waste disposal.
• A way to stay cool (fans) or warm when the power is out.
• A small supply of cash to use in case credit/debit machines are not working
• An emergency plan, including meeting places, emergency out-of-state contact numbers, a disaster buddy, and in case you must evacuate, a bug-out bag
• Spare supply of essential prescription medicines that you or your family may need
• A way to entertain yourself, or your kids, during a prolonged blackout

A good place to get started is by visiting Ready.gov, or by hitting this linkwhich will serve up a series of my preparedness blogs.

While you may go years without needing it, with emergency preparedness it is better to be ready 5 years too soon than 5 minutes too late.

https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2026/11/for-when-bough-breaks.html