sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
Asian rice prices rise to 3-year high, UAE, Russia follow India to restrict exports
23:00, July 31, 2023
Measures to limit rice exports in India, the world's largest rice exporter, to stabilize domestic prices are having knock-on effects.
Last week, 5% broken Thai white rice, the Asian benchmark, rose to $572 a tonne, the highest since April 2020; Vietnamese traders expect the country's 5% broken rice export price to rise to $572 a ton in August. $600.
While India's restriction order pushed up international rice prices, it also increased concerns about rice supply in some countries.
The United Arab Emirates, which relies on imports for nearly 90 percent of its food, announced a four-month ban on rice export and re-export, while Russia announced that it would continue to extend the rice export ban.
After the United Arab Emirates, whether more countries will announce rice export bans to ensure domestic supply has become a concern. During the global rice crisis from 2007 to 2008, after Vietnam, India, Cambodia and many other countries successively imposed restrictions on rice exports, international rice prices skyrocketed.
According to the UAE "National" report, in order to ensure domestic supply, the UAE Ministry of Economy announced a four-month ban on rice export and re-export starting from July 28, including rice from India since July 20.
The ban covers all types of rice, including hulled rice, brown rice, and broken rice. After India restricted rice exports, the retail price of rice in the UAE is expected to rise by up to 40%. Rice in the UAE is mainly imported from India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand.
In addition to importing rice from various countries, the UAE also re-exports rice to Oman, Benin, Somalia, Zimbabwe and the United States. According to the new regulations, companies that want to continue to re-export rice from the UAE must submit an application to the UAE Ministry of Economy and obtain permission before re-exporting.
A day after the UAE announced the ban, Russia also announced the extension of the rice and rice export ban until December 31 this year.
But Russia's ban does not affect Eurasian Economic Union members, nor does it affect exports to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In addition, rice exports for the purpose of humanitarian aid, as well as international rice shipments via Russia are not affected by the ban.
Russia has restricted rice exports since July last year to ensure domestic rice supplies. Apart from the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russian rice is mainly exported to Egypt, Turkey and Jordan. Egypt had just increased its imports of Indian rice.
After India implemented the rice export ban, industry insiders worried that this move would trigger other countries to follow suit to protect their own supplies. A new ban in the UAE and an extension by Russia have also added to the fears.
During the global rice crisis from 2007 to 2008, it was precisely because many countries successively announced restrictions on rice exports that the international rice price skyrocketed.
At that time, the prices of agricultural materials such as fuel and chemical fertilizers rose in many countries, and some rice-producing areas encountered abnormal weather. Vietnam and India, the world's major rice exporters, imposed restrictions on rice exports in order to stabilize the domestic market, which triggered panic buying in other countries. Subsequently, Cambodia, Myanmar, China, Pakistan, Egypt and many other countries have introduced measures such as bans or taxation to restrict rice exports.
At the beginning of 2008, the export price of Thailand's high-quality B-grade rice once rose to US$1,000 per ton, setting a record high in 20 years. The World Bank estimated that the rice crisis at that time caused the international rice price to rise by 52%.
After India restricted rice exports this time, so far, Thailand and Vietnam, the world's second and third largest rice exporters, have not released signals to follow India. Instead, Vietnam sees India's ban as a "golden opportunity" for Vietnamese rice exports.
On July 27, the export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice rose to US$558 per ton, an increase of 35% over the same period last year; Vietnamese industry insiders predict that by August, the country’s 5% broken rice export price will exceed US$600 per ton .
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecast last week that Vietnam's rice exports this year will reach 7.2 million tons, bringing the country $4 billion in revenue. Tran Thanh Nam, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, said bluntly that India's rice export ban has brought good opportunities for Vietnam's rice exports.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association predicts that with the implementation of restrictions in India, Thailand may export 4 million to 5 million tons of rice in the second half of this year, and the annual export is expected to be 9 million tons, exceeding the 8 million tons target set by the Thai government in March this year.
Last year, Thailand exported 7.69 million tons of rice, with major buyers being Iraq, South Africa, China, the United States and Benin. According to the Thai Rice Export Association, China, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are currently increasing imports.
While Thailand is also aiming to benefit from India's restrictions, the country also has to contend with a drop in rainfall that could be triggered by El Niño. There are two main seasons of rice planting in Thailand, the rainy season and the dry season. The rainy season generally starts from May to the end of October, and the dry season starts from November to the end of April of the following year. The rainy season is the main rice planting season.
Thailand's Kaitai Research Center predicted last month that due to the El Niño phenomenon, Thailand's rice production this year may decrease by 6% compared with last year, falling to 25.1 million to 25.16 million tons. Including the rice harvest in the dry season, Thailand's total rice production this year is expected to be between 32.7 million and 33.2 million tons.
This production will meet Thailand's domestic consumption and export this year, but if the drought is prolonged, this year's rice production may decline further. Kaitai Research Center also warned that if the El Niño phenomenon continues until next year, the water levels of major reservoirs in Thailand will drop severely, affecting rice planting in the rainy and dry seasons next year.
Thailand's rainy season has been delayed until June this year. To conserve water, Thai authorities have urged farmers to plant only one season of rice this year. But Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, pointed out that given the current high rice prices and rising profits, farmers are likely to continue planting rice during the dry season.
zhttps://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/20...=0&rfunc=32&tj=cxvertical_pc_pager_spt&tr=174
23:00, July 31, 2023
Measures to limit rice exports in India, the world's largest rice exporter, to stabilize domestic prices are having knock-on effects.
Last week, 5% broken Thai white rice, the Asian benchmark, rose to $572 a tonne, the highest since April 2020; Vietnamese traders expect the country's 5% broken rice export price to rise to $572 a ton in August. $600.
While India's restriction order pushed up international rice prices, it also increased concerns about rice supply in some countries.
The United Arab Emirates, which relies on imports for nearly 90 percent of its food, announced a four-month ban on rice export and re-export, while Russia announced that it would continue to extend the rice export ban.
After the United Arab Emirates, whether more countries will announce rice export bans to ensure domestic supply has become a concern. During the global rice crisis from 2007 to 2008, after Vietnam, India, Cambodia and many other countries successively imposed restrictions on rice exports, international rice prices skyrocketed.
According to the UAE "National" report, in order to ensure domestic supply, the UAE Ministry of Economy announced a four-month ban on rice export and re-export starting from July 28, including rice from India since July 20.
The ban covers all types of rice, including hulled rice, brown rice, and broken rice. After India restricted rice exports, the retail price of rice in the UAE is expected to rise by up to 40%. Rice in the UAE is mainly imported from India, Pakistan, Vietnam and Thailand.
In addition to importing rice from various countries, the UAE also re-exports rice to Oman, Benin, Somalia, Zimbabwe and the United States. According to the new regulations, companies that want to continue to re-export rice from the UAE must submit an application to the UAE Ministry of Economy and obtain permission before re-exporting.
A day after the UAE announced the ban, Russia also announced the extension of the rice and rice export ban until December 31 this year.
But Russia's ban does not affect Eurasian Economic Union members, nor does it affect exports to South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In addition, rice exports for the purpose of humanitarian aid, as well as international rice shipments via Russia are not affected by the ban.
Russia has restricted rice exports since July last year to ensure domestic rice supplies. Apart from the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union, Russian rice is mainly exported to Egypt, Turkey and Jordan. Egypt had just increased its imports of Indian rice.
After India implemented the rice export ban, industry insiders worried that this move would trigger other countries to follow suit to protect their own supplies. A new ban in the UAE and an extension by Russia have also added to the fears.
During the global rice crisis from 2007 to 2008, it was precisely because many countries successively announced restrictions on rice exports that the international rice price skyrocketed.
At that time, the prices of agricultural materials such as fuel and chemical fertilizers rose in many countries, and some rice-producing areas encountered abnormal weather. Vietnam and India, the world's major rice exporters, imposed restrictions on rice exports in order to stabilize the domestic market, which triggered panic buying in other countries. Subsequently, Cambodia, Myanmar, China, Pakistan, Egypt and many other countries have introduced measures such as bans or taxation to restrict rice exports.
At the beginning of 2008, the export price of Thailand's high-quality B-grade rice once rose to US$1,000 per ton, setting a record high in 20 years. The World Bank estimated that the rice crisis at that time caused the international rice price to rise by 52%.
After India restricted rice exports this time, so far, Thailand and Vietnam, the world's second and third largest rice exporters, have not released signals to follow India. Instead, Vietnam sees India's ban as a "golden opportunity" for Vietnamese rice exports.
On July 27, the export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice rose to US$558 per ton, an increase of 35% over the same period last year; Vietnamese industry insiders predict that by August, the country’s 5% broken rice export price will exceed US$600 per ton .
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecast last week that Vietnam's rice exports this year will reach 7.2 million tons, bringing the country $4 billion in revenue. Tran Thanh Nam, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, said bluntly that India's rice export ban has brought good opportunities for Vietnam's rice exports.
The Thai Rice Exporters Association predicts that with the implementation of restrictions in India, Thailand may export 4 million to 5 million tons of rice in the second half of this year, and the annual export is expected to be 9 million tons, exceeding the 8 million tons target set by the Thai government in March this year.
Last year, Thailand exported 7.69 million tons of rice, with major buyers being Iraq, South Africa, China, the United States and Benin. According to the Thai Rice Export Association, China, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are currently increasing imports.
While Thailand is also aiming to benefit from India's restrictions, the country also has to contend with a drop in rainfall that could be triggered by El Niño. There are two main seasons of rice planting in Thailand, the rainy season and the dry season. The rainy season generally starts from May to the end of October, and the dry season starts from November to the end of April of the following year. The rainy season is the main rice planting season.
Thailand's Kaitai Research Center predicted last month that due to the El Niño phenomenon, Thailand's rice production this year may decrease by 6% compared with last year, falling to 25.1 million to 25.16 million tons. Including the rice harvest in the dry season, Thailand's total rice production this year is expected to be between 32.7 million and 33.2 million tons.
This production will meet Thailand's domestic consumption and export this year, but if the drought is prolonged, this year's rice production may decline further. Kaitai Research Center also warned that if the El Niño phenomenon continues until next year, the water levels of major reservoirs in Thailand will drop severely, affecting rice planting in the rainy and dry seasons next year.
Thailand's rainy season has been delayed until June this year. To conserve water, Thai authorities have urged farmers to plant only one season of rice this year. But Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, pointed out that given the current high rice prices and rising profits, farmers are likely to continue planting rice during the dry season.
zhttps://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/20...=0&rfunc=32&tj=cxvertical_pc_pager_spt&tr=174