Flu expert's forecast is bleak

[Chuck]

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/latest/lat_700593.shtml?v=2147


Flu expert's forecast is bleak
By Tom Corwin | Staff Writer
Tuesday, July 28, 2009 9:47 p.m.


ATHENS, Ga. ? An international gathering of influenza and immunology experts shared promising research Tuesday on new insights into how the immune system reacts to flu and potential new approaches to combating it.
Sign up for breaking news alerts from The Chronicle

But one public health expert also issued a dire warning about the coming impact of the novel influenza A H1N1 pandemic and potentially devastating disruptions to worldwide trade and the country?s infrastructure.

The University of Georgia played host to the Third Annual Immunobiology of Influenza Virus Infection conference. The conference shifts annually between UGA and Emory University in Atlanta because the two collaborate in the Influenza Pathogenesis and Immunology Research Center. The regional lab allows ?real-time? research on the novel virus and its impact on patients, and the research at the conference presents a lot of opportunities to build on what is happening now, said Ralph A. Tripp, associate director of the center.

But even groundbreaking work might not be sufficient to combat the impact of the novel virus and the problems it poses for the U.S., said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and the Minnesota Center for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance. A big part of the problem is the globalization of trade and the ?just in time? ordering of supplies, where things are shipped as needed to cut down on warehousing costs. But many of these items must be shipped from Asia, manufactured there or the raw materials shipped from India or China, where widespread flu vaccination is not likely.

There were some glimmers of hope. For example, testing of antibody responses found that about 34 percent of those born before 1950 had a significant response against the new virus, possibly from having a previous flu strain that carried similar antigens.

Reach Tom Corwin at (706) 823-3213 or tom.corwin@augustachronicle.com

 

[hawkeye]

Re: Flu expert's forecast is bleak

Just so everyone can read this part again..

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/latest/lat_700593.shtml?v=2147



But even groundbreaking work might not be sufficient to combat the impact of the novel virus and the problems it poses for the U.S., said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and the Minnesota Center for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance. A big part of the problem is the globalization of trade and the ?just in time? ordering of supplies, where things are shipped as needed to cut down on warehousing costs. But many of these items must be shipped from Asia, manufactured there or the raw materials shipped from India or China, where widespread flu vaccination is not likely.

 

[Chuck]

Re: Flu expert's forecast is bleak

http://chronicle.augusta.com/stories/2009/07/29/met_542479.shtml

Expanded explanation:


Global trade system raises virus's threat
By Tom Corwin | Staff Writer
Wednesday, July 29, 2009


ATHENS, Ga. --- An international gathering of influenza and immunology experts shared promising research Tuesday on how the immune system reacts to flu and potential new approaches to combating it.
Sign up to get local news by e-mail

But one public health expert also issued a dire warning about the coming impact of the novel influenza A H1N1 pandemic and potentially devastating disruptions to worldwide trade.

The University of Georgia played host to the third annual Immunobiology of Influenza Virus Infection conference. The conference shifts annually between UGA and Emory University in Atlanta because the two collaborate in the Influenza Pathogenesis and Immunology Research Center, one of six national Influenza Centers of Excellence funded by the National Institutes of Health and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

The regional lab allows "real-time" research on the novel virus and its impact on patients, and the conference presents opportunities to build on what is happening now, said Ralph A. Tripp, associate director of the center.

But even groundbreaking work might not be sufficient to combat the problems the flu poses for the U.S., said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and the Minnesota Center for Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance.

A big part of the problem is the globalization of trade and the "just in time" ordering of supplies, where things are shipped as needed to cut down on warehousing. Many items must be shipped from Asia, where widespread flu vaccination is not likely. A significant number of cargo ship crews getting sick could put a serious dent in the supply chain, Dr. Osterholm said.

"Right now, they're on nobody's radar screen," he said.

The same goes for medical supplies and even basic generic drugs such as insulin or albuterol, which often rely on international shipping, Dr. Osterholm said.

"Supply chains are incredibly thin and vulnerable," he said. And though the U.S. has ordered millions of doses of the novel H1N1 vaccine, which officials hope will be ready this year, it might require two shots, which would cut in half the number who get vaccinated, Dr. Osterholm said.

"Even under the best of circumstances, don't count on a lot of people getting vaccinated."

And it is probably too late to correct these things, he said.

There were some glimmers of hope. Testing of antibody responses found that 34 percent of those born before 1950 had a significant response against the new virus, possibly from having a previous flu strain that carried similar antigens. But it is unclear whether that will provide them protection against the new strain, said Jackie Katz, the chief of immunology and pathogenesis in the Influenza Division of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

And there is some concern that the elderly might think they don't need the flu vaccine this year, Dr. Katz said.

"I think it is an important public health message, especially for that older age group, that they still do need seasonal influenza vaccine," she said.

Reach Tom Corwin at (706) 823-3213 or tom.corwin@augustachronicle.com.