Florida %ILI Increasing

[JimO]

Source:http://www.doh.state.fl.us/disease_ctrl/epi/swineflu/Reports/reports.htm

Here are two updated %ILI charts from Florida's weekly surveillance report. It looks like Florida might see one long wave.

 

[marmack]

Re: Florida %ILI Increasing

Wonder if due to hot weather and air conditioning so people are inside together more? I grew up in Florida and we always at movies, malls on hot days... also the school there starts very early.

 

[Thornton]

Re: Florida %ILI Increasing

The graphic that has impressed me the most is the data from Sentinel Physicians of page 1 of the ppdf file below. It is less likely to be influenced by publicity spikes in the illness and more accurately pictures the random sampling from clinical practice. Note the green line and the direction from week 30 to week 31. Unfortunately I have not been able to copy and paste the graphs so I have to direct to the pdf file below.

The narrative is also dramatically underkey in stating that as of last week that Florida is expereincing more than moderate influenza like activity.


source:
http://www.doh.state.fl.us/disease_ctrl/epi/htopics/flu/2009/index.html
http://www.doh.state.fl.us/disease_ctrl/epi/htopics/Week_31_2008-2009_InfluenzaReport.pdf

During week 31 (08/02/09-08/08/09), the proportion of patient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) as reported by the Florida Sentinel Physician Influenza Surveillance Network was 3.88 percent. This is above the state threshold for moderate activity of 2.98 percent. Seventy-seven (53%) of 144 ILI specimens tested by Bureau of Laboratories were positive for influenza. Three counties reported widespread activity and 12 counties reported localized activity. Twenty-four counties reported sporadic activity and 3 counties reported no activity. Twenty-five counties did not report. The graph below shows the progression of the 2007-08 & 2008-09 Florida influenza seasons as monitored by three** of seven surveillance systems.

Also of importance, the previous week the ILI activity was 2.35 %, a level below the threshold.

 

[JimO]

Re: Florida %ILI Increasing

Also of importance, the previous week the ILI activity was 2.35 %, a level below the threshold.

Also, I believe that the baseline is set for flu season and not the normal summer months, making the graph even more dramatic with respect to difference from current baseline.