-
FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website. -
We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.
Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
- Thread starter HenryN
- Start date
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
He also discourage porphylactic use of osetamivir (except for those with underlying conditions), and also discouraged swine flu parties, noting that a small but real number of patients get into trouble and die.
He also thought that the spread of the virus in the fall would convince people to take the vaccine. He acknowledged that the yeild was only at 50% of expectations, but projections on availability used the 50% of expected number.
He also discourage porphylactic use of osetamivir (except for those with underlying conditions), and also discouraged swine flu parties, noting that a small but real number of patients get into trouble and die.
He also thought that the spread of the virus in the fall would convince people to take the vaccine. He acknowledged that the yeild was only at 50% of expectations, but projections on availability used the 50% of expected number.
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
How much time (days, weeks?) does it for a vaccine to provide sufficient immunity to the virus?
How much time (days, weeks?) does it for a vaccine to provide sufficient immunity to the virus?
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
Thus, optimally, there would be full immunity 4-6 weeks after the first shot (but it remains unclear how optimal the situation will be). Some have projected large volumes of the first shot being available in January, and boosters not ready for months after that (as long as a year from now).
Normally it takes a couple of weeks. However, since this is a swine target which has not been seen by most being vaccinated, a booster is recommended, which I believe is given three weeks later. However, it is unclear when vaccine for boosters will be available.
Thus, optimally, there would be full immunity 4-6 weeks after the first shot (but it remains unclear how optimal the situation will be). Some have projected large volumes of the first shot being available in January, and boosters not ready for months after that (as long as a year from now).
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
> U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the
> next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign
> and other measures aren't successful.
> He (Fauci) also discourage porphylactic use of osetamivir
why ?
> , and also discouraged swine flu parties, noting that a small but real number
> of patients get into trouble and die.
ohh, real numbers. Even positive integers, presumably.
336 deaths reported in USA and more than a million infected.
CFR=0.03%
Expected/estimated are 120M infected and ~200000 dead (if the vaccine campaign and other measures
are not successful) CFR = 0.17% 5-6 times more.
Assume an infection now protects with 50% for 1 year, that's about the same expectation
value to die from swine flu parties as the expected/estimated protection that they provide.
But we still have the vaccine-chance which weights more on the non-party side.
Chances are almost balanced for and against the parties (IMO) so some city or region
might try it so we can compare later and give advice to other regions,states,countries
Well, New York City (Queens) is a natural example
> He also thought that the spread of the virus in the fall would convince people to take
> the vaccine.
when it already did spread, then it's too late for that wave ?
> He acknwledged that the yeild was only at 50% of expecttaions, but projections on
> availability used the 50% of expected number.
what are those projections
> U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the
> next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign
> and other measures aren't successful.
> He (Fauci) also discourage porphylactic use of osetamivir
why ?
> , and also discouraged swine flu parties, noting that a small but real number
> of patients get into trouble and die.
ohh, real numbers. Even positive integers, presumably.
336 deaths reported in USA and more than a million infected.
CFR=0.03%
Expected/estimated are 120M infected and ~200000 dead (if the vaccine campaign and other measures
are not successful) CFR = 0.17% 5-6 times more.
Assume an infection now protects with 50% for 1 year, that's about the same expectation
value to die from swine flu parties as the expected/estimated protection that they provide.
But we still have the vaccine-chance which weights more on the non-party side.
Chances are almost balanced for and against the parties (IMO) so some city or region
might try it so we can compare later and give advice to other regions,states,countries
Well, New York City (Queens) is a natural example
> He also thought that the spread of the virus in the fall would convince people to take
> the vaccine.
when it already did spread, then it's too late for that wave ?
> He acknwledged that the yeild was only at 50% of expecttaions, but projections on
> availability used the 50% of expected number.
what are those projections
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
So hypothetically if we see a 1918 redux, where the majority of deaths occured in October. Getting a shot in mid October and a booster a couple of weeks later might mean that if you get infected in November that you have a rather good chance of having an immune response?
Unfortunately, if we are following the 1918 redux, heading out to get a vaccine shot in mid October, may just put you at more risk of getting infected.
So hypothetically if we see a 1918 redux, where the majority of deaths occured in October. Getting a shot in mid October and a booster a couple of weeks later might mean that if you get infected in November that you have a rather good chance of having an immune response?
Unfortunately, if we are following the 1918 redux, heading out to get a vaccine shot in mid October, may just put you at more risk of getting infected.
gsgs
Registered User
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
weren't you the one who said it didn't come from drug use ?
so for the individual it would still make sense but he doesn't recommend it
because others might suffer.
Like recommending not to burn oil,drive cars because it pollutes the environment.
Will people follow ?
weren't you the one who said it didn't come from drug use ?
so for the individual it would still make sense but he doesn't recommend it
because others might suffer.
Like recommending not to burn oil,drive cars because it pollutes the environment.
Will people follow ?
Re: Fauci (NIAID) on MSNBC
I said spread of H274Y in SEASONAL H1N1 didn't come from drug use (or traveling salesmen). I also said that the H274Y in seasonal flu would lead to H274Y in H1N1 swine flu via recombination (H274Y would be on a swine background because of recombination and hitchhiking). Others said H274Y would be acquired by reassortment with seasonal flu. I also said H274Y spread in swine H1N1 would be ACCELERATED by widespread Tamiflu use.
As predicted, there are ZERO examples of H274Y (or anything else) being acquired by reassortment with circulating seasonal flu. However, there have been FIVE examples of H274Y on a swine background. One (Hong Kong ex-San Francisco) was from a patient who was NOT taking Tamiflu. The other four (Denmark Japan twice, Canada) were in patients on PROPHYLACTIC tamiflu (selecting a pre-exsiting minor population with H274Y - no examples of N294S).
The data has been exactly as predicted and the risk/reward of prophylactic Tamiflu is very high.
Reality Check.
I said spread of H274Y in SEASONAL H1N1 didn't come from drug use (or traveling salesmen). I also said that the H274Y in seasonal flu would lead to H274Y in H1N1 swine flu via recombination (H274Y would be on a swine background because of recombination and hitchhiking). Others said H274Y would be acquired by reassortment with seasonal flu. I also said H274Y spread in swine H1N1 would be ACCELERATED by widespread Tamiflu use.
As predicted, there are ZERO examples of H274Y (or anything else) being acquired by reassortment with circulating seasonal flu. However, there have been FIVE examples of H274Y on a swine background. One (Hong Kong ex-San Francisco) was from a patient who was NOT taking Tamiflu. The other four (Denmark Japan twice, Canada) were in patients on PROPHYLACTIC tamiflu (selecting a pre-exsiting minor population with H274Y - no examples of N294S).
The data has been exactly as predicted and the risk/reward of prophylactic Tamiflu is very high.