tetano
Editor, Senior Moderator
F1000Res
. 2020 Apr 30;9:315.
doi: 10.12688/f1000research.23496.1. eCollection 2020.
SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in India: Epidemiological Features and in silico Analysis of the Effect of Interventions
Archisman Mazumder[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mehak Arora[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Vishwesh Bharadiya[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Parul Berry[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mudit Agarwal[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Priyamadhaba Behera[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hemant Deepak Shewade[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Ayush Lohiya[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Mohak Gupta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aditi Rao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Giridara Gopal Parameswaran[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
Abstract
Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; India; SIR model.
. 2020 Apr 30;9:315.
doi: 10.12688/f1000research.23496.1. eCollection 2020.
SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic in India: Epidemiological Features and in silico Analysis of the Effect of Interventions
Archisman Mazumder[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mehak Arora[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Vishwesh Bharadiya[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Parul Berry[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Mudit Agarwal[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Priyamadhaba Behera[SUP] 2 [/SUP], Hemant Deepak Shewade[SUP] 3 4 [/SUP], Ayush Lohiya[SUP] 5 [/SUP], Mohak Gupta[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Aditi Rao[SUP] 1 [/SUP], Giridara Gopal Parameswaran[SUP] 1 [/SUP]
Affiliations
- PMID: 32528664
- PMCID: PMC7262570
- DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.23496.1
Abstract
Background: After SARS-CoV-2 set foot in India, the Government took a number of steps to limit the spread of the virus in the country. This included restricted testing, isolation, contact tracing and quarantine, and enforcement of a nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020. The objectives of this study were to i) describe the age,gender distribution and mortality among COVID-19 patients identified till 14 April 2020 and predict the range of contact rate; and ii) predict the number of active COVID-19 patients after 40 days of lockdown. Methods: We used a cross-sectional descriptive design for first objective and a susceptible-infected-removed model for in silico predictions. We collected data from government-controlled and crowdsourced websites. Results: Studying age and gender parameters of 1161 Indian COVID-19 patients, the median age was 38 years (IQR, 27-52) with 20-39 year-old males being the most affected group. The number of affected patients were 854 (73.6%) men and 307 (26.4%) women. If the current contact rate continues (0.25-27), India may have 110460 to 220575 infected persons at the end of 40 days lockdown. Conclusion: The disease is majorly affecting a younger age group in India. Interventions have been helpful in preventing the worst-case scenario in India, but will be unable to prevent the spike in number of cases.
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; India; SIR model.